The Audacity of Youth

That's a tall order—but the potential, at least, is there. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama trails Clinton 25-31 percent among all Iowa Democrats, but leads 28-24 percent among likely caucus-goers. The difference, according to previously unpublished results from the poll: 20 percent of those likely voters were under 30, compared to 13 percent of the wider Democratic pool—meaning that when caucus-goers skew young, Obama is leading. "If Obama really has the ability to go out and identify young voters and motivate them wherever they live, he would, in theory, be able to make a big difference," says pollster Mark Blumenthal. "It's unlikely, but it's not impossible." It's important to note that the NEWSWEEK stats should be taken with a boulder of salt; caucuses are tricky to poll, and the small sample size makes for a big margin of error. What's more, Obama's "tremendous volunteer force" isn't quite so tremendous yet; the Barack Stars of Waukee High School, for example, have signed up only 15 classmates. Still, caucus night is three long months away—and, as Woody Allen once said, 80 percent of success is showing up. Only the Rob Sands of the world can do that.

With Richard Wolffe

© 2007