Open the Doors

Corruption and criminality are rampant in both countries. Transparency International's corruption index ranks Bulgaria on par with Colombia. Romania lags behind such notorious locales as China, Egypt and Mexico. Networks of organized criminals trafficking in drugs, women and illicit goods riddle Bulgaria. More than 100 people have been gunned down in mafia or political killings in the past decade, in some cases in broad daylight in central Sofia. No one is sure that the legal system is strong enough to enforce the law, let alone jail crime kingpins the government is currently unable or unwilling to prosecute.

Politics in the region is increasingly unruly. Bulgaria and Romania remain on their best behavior as the EU decision looms. But in nearby Poland, the politician-twins Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski lead a government that is not just Euro-skeptical but ultraconservative, even illiberal. In July, one governing party's gay-bashing triggered a formal censure from the European Parliament. Just last week in Hungary, 150 people were injured in the worst riots since the anti-Soviet uprising of 1956 (following story).

Enlargement has been further discredited by recent waves of immigration, particularly from Poland. Before the 10 new members entered, the Commission estimated that fewer than 20,000 Poles would go west. Yet recent reports reveal some 600,000 Poles have been working in the U.K. alone--the largest single immigrant wave in British history. Western Europeans fear that further enlargement will add to this flood of illegal "Polish plumbers," and Brussels hardly bothers to issue denials. It is left to political leaders in the two applicant countries to assuage these fears--an effort that seems increasingly absurd, as when Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev recently claimed that his countrymen would never leave their country because they prefer its warm weather to Northern Europe's rainy chill.

Legal uncertainty, economic backwardness, organized crime, political intolerance and floods of immigrants. Why do it? "The EU finds itself in a trap of its own making," says Noutcheva. European governments committed four years ago to permit Romanian and Bulgarian entry either in 2007 or 2008--and now they are stuck. "If Europe shirks its obligations," says Noutcheva, "it would damage its reputation." Many criticize Brussels for not maintaining the diplomatic flexibility to say no.

But things aren't quite so simple. While in public some governments will criticize the Commission, nearly all European leaders have worked hard behind the scenes to bring about just this result. And they have every intention of continuing with enlargement. They know just what they are doing and why.

Some motivations are narrowly self-interested. In frontline countries like Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Greece, Italy and now the 10 new members, enlargement creates particular commercial opportunities and provides a geopolitical buffer against the tumultuous post-Soviet space. In Britain and Scandinavia, widening undermines Euro-federalists who want to deepen the EU--or turn it to anti-American purposes. On the other hand, perhaps the strongest supporter of Romania and Bulgaria in recent years has been France. Some mutter darkly that President Jacques Chirac is motivated by his lingering 19th-century impulse to "balance" German influence in the Balkans. But the real reason is more enlightened: European leaders understand that peace and prosperity in the region requires enlargement.