Open the Doors

Skeptics say it's still not enough, but what is a reasonable standard of comparison? "Romania may not look like Sweden," says one Commission official actively involved in the negotiations, who asked to remain anonymous because of his role. "But it looks a lot less like Azerbaijan, which is what it could have been without the EU's guiding influence." Oxford scholar Jan Zielonka similarly views as unreasonable the expectation that enlargement will produce Euro-clones. He says: "The relevant standard is Greece or Berlusconi's Italy--which demonstrate that high levels of crime and corruption are not incompatible with membership."

In this respect, it might even be said that Bulgaria and Romania are less problematic. Much of their crime, by contrast to Italy's, is transnational in nature. That is, it flows across their borders from the former Soviet Union. If European authorities are to prevail over such forces, perhaps it's better to have the Bulgarians in the EU. Many in the Commission now say the same in relation to regulatory and judicial matters, where the EU can withhold financial benefits or act through the courts and bureaucracies to promote more-rapid progress in the two countries.

The future will bring more such problems. Heather Grabbe, a close adviser to EU Enlargement Commissioner Oli Rehn, predicts: "Countries in the western Balkans will be considered one by one, on a strictly merit-based criteria. Based on the Romanian and Bulgarian experience, our demands will be more sweeping and more precise." The whole process might take 15 years--and it will involve real political costs. Recognizing Kosovo's likely independence, with the backlash from Serbia, will be an early test. And farther down the road comes Turkey. European leaders deserve immense credit for their willingness to persevere with enlargement. But if they are to play a stabilizing role in their neighborhood, what else are they to do? Former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer, a convinced European and former leader of the Green Party, puts it bluntly: "There is no alternative."

Moravcsik directs the European Union Program at Princeton University.

© 2006