Sunny, Modern, Morocco

The nearly completed Saidia Resort on Morocco's northern Mediterranean coast, only 70 kilometers south of Spain's popular Murcia beaches, is the flashy harbinger of what's to come: an 800-berth marina, three golf courses, 17 five-star beach clubs and a seven-kilometer boardwalk linking restaurants, clubs, cinemas and luxury shops. A three-bedroom villa in the resort sells for £185,000--a fifth of what it would cost at Murcia's La Manga resort. "It's like Spain 40 years ago," says Saidia property developer Richard Dear. Europeans now buy more holiday homes in Morocco than they do in Portugal.

Not everyone welcomes that influx. Budget airlines such as Europe's RyanAir and Jet4You offer dozens of flights for as little as £60, and recently there's been talk of a Eurostar-like train linking southern Spain to Tangier via a tunnel under the Strait of Gibraltar. But critics worry that Morocco will become a touristic North AfricaDisneyland, with its own culture submerged in Marbella-style oases and loud British bachelor parties. "I'm worried that Marrakech will be flooded by package groups," says Dyer, who runs a guest house in the city's Kasbah.

Still, the biggest challenges Morocco faces are homegrown. Foremost among them is jobs, says the World Bank's Ahlers. Although unemployment has dropped significantly in recent years, it's still disproportionately high among Morocco's educated urban young. Thirty-five percent of university graduates are jobless--prompting many to seek work abroad. Poverty and social marginalization come next on Ahlers's list. Fifteen percent of the population, some 4.5 million people, lives below the poverty line. Successfully tackling these two problems, says Ahlers, is the only way to improve the quality of life in Morocco, curb illegal immigration and stem the appeal of Islamic extremism.

Even if those problems were indeed resolved, would Europe let Morocco into its club? It's more a pipe dream than a possibility, most experts agree. "Some people would simply find the idea too alien," says a senior Moroccan diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous because of his position. Nevertheless, a decade ago few could imagine Romania and Bulgaria being invited in--yet last week they were. The EU's official consideration of Turkey proves that Morocco's Islamic identity is not an unassailable hurdle either.

Prime Minister Jettou fantasizes about a future where Morocco is a de facto member of the EU, whether or not it wins bona fide membership. "In 10 years, we will be a full-fledged partner in the EU family," he predicts. "When Romano Prodi [the former president of the European Commission] proposed his European Neighborhood Policy in 2001, he meant that we should benefit from all the advantages of the EU--just without the institutions." Thanks to the free-trade agreements now being negotiated in Brussels and Rabat, Morocco will soon take a big step in that direction. According to EU Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner, Europe also aims to bring Morocco increasingly into the fold on major political discussions too, including immigration, social issues, foreign affairs and terrorism.

This "deepening relationship," as European diplomats put it, is proving to be something of a regional model by illustrating what other North African and Arab countries can hope to gain through EU cooperation. Many of the countries that signed up to the Euro-Med Partnership in Barcelona in 1995--like Algeria, Jordan and Syria--have slowed intended liberalizations and remained outside the new European "neighborhood." Part of the reason, says Erwan Lannon, a member of the Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission in Brussels, is because Europe expected them to reform economically and socially--but without the "golden carrot" of possible EU membership. Morocco's booming economy and improved living standards show that even without the "member" title, there are palpable benefits to linking up with Europe.