War in the Caucasus?

The dispute between Georgia and Russia has all the makings of a tragic conflict.

 

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Bad relations between Washington and Moscow are nothing new. But this time America may be lurching toward something it carefully avoided throughout the cold war: an armed confrontation between a U.S. client state and Moscow on Russia's own border.

The crisis erupted on Sept. 27, when Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili arrested four Russian officers, accusing them of helping plan a coup against him. The men were soon released, partly under pressure from the United States, but Moscow promptly imposed heavy trade and financial sanctions and recalled its diplomats from Tbilisi. Russian officials have denounced Georgia's government as "fascistic," and the Russian Parliament decried its "state-sponsored terrorism." For his part, Saakashvili accuses Russia of "planning to ruin Georgia."

This comes amid other developments pushing the region toward potential conflict. A key one is unfolding many hundreds of kilometers away, in the Balkans, where the West is likely to soon grant independence to the breakaway Serbian province of Kosovo. What's the link? During the breakup of the Soviet Union, indigenous groups in the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia fought separatist wars in which they received barely veiled help from the Soviet military. These territories have since enjoyed de facto independence, though they aren't formally recognized by any state, including Russia. Moscow has granted Russian citizenship to most of their people, while Russian "peacekeepers" continue to "separate" local forces from their Georgian antagonists. This uneasy truce has prevailed since 1993, broken by periodic violent flare-ups.

But on Sept. 9, when Vladimir Putin invited a group of Western experts to dinner, including me, he issued a stern warning. If the West recognizes Kosovo's independence, Russia may do the same for the former Georgian republics. "It is inadmissible to apply one rule to Kosovo and another to Abkhazia and South Ossetia," he told us. "Such a policy cannot be ethical and has no future." Probably encouraged by Moscow, South Ossetia has scheduled a referendum on independence for November. Meanwhile, Saakashvili warns that any attempt to wrest these regions away would force Georgia to "go to war."

As Russians see it, the West's differing approach to the Balkans and the Caucasus reeks of double standards. Moscow considers itself duty-bound to support Abkhazia and South Ossetia, if only because of fraternal ties. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians live in the republics of the North Caucasus, and the last thing Russia needs is more ethnic unrest in that volatile region. Moscow is also extremely hostile to Georgia's westward tilt. Washington has sent military advisers and equipped the Georgian Army. With the encouragement of many in Washington, Tbilisi is loudly pushing its desire to join NATO. Seen from Moscow, this looks like a U.S. strategy to encircle Russia, destroying its influence in the region.

The Bush administration has repeatedly assured the Kremlin that it is putting heavy pressure on Saakashvili's government not to attack the breakaway regions. Yet Moscow can't help but see a contradiction. Exhibit A is the fact that the United States continues to arm and train Georgian forces. Moreover, Russians see Georgian adventurism as encouraged by less restrained U.S. politicians, such as John McCain and other senators who visited Georgia in recent months and expressed strong support for Georgian aspirations. McCain's helicopter allegedly came under fire as it flew over South Ossetia.

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: Johnsm @ 02/16/2008 8:21:43 AM

    How can a "republic" be created out of nothing? Only with the help of the Russian secret service. Like Abkhazia and the Dnestr republic, South Ossetia is a soviet creation with a totalitarian regime. It is completely under control of the Russian defence and secret service. These "republics" have a president and parliament on a mono-ethnic basis, despite the fact that other (larger) ethnic groups exist in the area. None of them are represented. The governement is extremely anti-Western and percecute people with pro-Western thoughts. Now and then so-called elections are held, fully financed from Moscow and are falsified. For example in november 99% supposedly voted for president Kokoiti. Tens of thousands of Georgians were prevented from taking part in these elections.
    The region is in fact called Samachablo. In the 1930's only 4 Ossetian families lived in there. The present number has been artificially created by the soviets. In South Ossetia as well as Abkhazia the population is handed Russian passports. There thereby become Russian citizens and Russia has to "protect" them from "agression" - a pretext for invading Georgia.
    There is no import/export, no respect for human rights. Hundreds of thousands of Georgian refugees are not being allowed into their homes by the so-called Russian peacekeepers. The leadership of the peacekeeping mission uses agressive language towards Georgia and takes its own measures, for example the removal of Georgian houses, taking the (building) materials for themselves. The peacekeepers (under UN mandate) are involved in smuggling of cigarettes and weapons.
    The solution would be to return the refugees and then to organize democratic elections. Guarantees for human rights and equality.

  • Posted By: Johnsm @ 01/07/2008 11:18:30 AM

    The present de facto government of Abkhazia refers to the existence of the Soviet Socialist Republic that was created in 1925.
    This republic was created by the greatest dictator of all time, Stalin, and his helpers. In the 30s Nestor Lakoba (an Abkhazian communist/nationalist) organized the assimilation of the Georgian peasant population. People who agreed to register as Abkhazian were freed from military service, received cattle and other privileges. Tens of thousands of Georgians were happy to accept such an offer because in their opinion they were already Abkhazians (i.e. inhabitants of the province of Abkhazia). But the real purpose was to increase the (registered) number of Apsua (a Northern Caucasus people that moved to the (attractive) Black Sea shores.
    In the 70s such assimilation programs were repeated, now with promise of cars, houses and university access.
    In 1993 hundreds of thousands of Georgians were driven from Abkhazia, tens of thousands were brutally murdered and abused. Participants in these murders now hold posts in the Abkhazian government.
    Most other ethnic groups have meanwhile also left Abkhazia. The result is a mono-ethnic "republic". In this so-called republic the Georgian language is officially forbidden as well as Georgian schools and education in the Georgian language. Georgian refugees are not allowed to return to their homes. In the Gali district a young child played with a Georgian flag. Because of this it was brutally hit in the face by Abkhazian police-officers.
    Some Georgians dared to return to this Gali district, the part of Abkhazia closest to Georgia. They are forbidden to harvest any fruit from their gardens.
    This criminal government is financed by Russia, the Russian government knows this and takes part in it. They provide weapons and military instructions.
    Fake tourism programs are launched to promote Abkhazia as a tourist destination.
    The country is full of hidden mass-graves of Georgian inhabitants (including many women and children), their families are still looking for them.

    Solution: 300.000 Georgian refugees return to their homes, democratic elections are held and a referendum to decide the future status of Abkhazia. Those who participated in war crimes and genocide have to be brought to justice.
    Until this happens the Abkhazian republic is a fake.

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