The Democrats' Disciplinarian

Lyndon Johnson was famous for something called "the treatment," where he would loom over cowering colleagues on Capitol Hill with his index finger in their faces, cajoling, intimidating and, yes, leading. Rahm Emanuel is a short, skinny former ballet dancer from Chicago. When he puts his index finger in a lawmaker's face, he's usually pointing up. But the tough-guy-with-a-twinkle discipline may be what Democrats need to take back the House of Representatives in November.

Emanuel, the former Clinton White House enforcer who is only in his second term in the House, is not a great spokesman for the party. All that coiled energy can make TV viewers nervous. But he thrives as an inside player, in touch with old-style operatives and the party's Internet vanguard. As chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "Rahmbo" is essentially managing 40 House races from a war room a few blocks from the Capitol, helping with candidate recruitment, fund-raising and "rapid response." One minute he's ordering a colleague to plant an editorial trashing a Republican front runner in his hometown paper ("Write this down!"); the next, he's telling one of his hand-picked candidates that the guy's stump speech lacks passion ("If you think that's inspiring, get out now"). Emanuel pulls it all off with a mixture of profanity and horse sense that gives Democrats the feeling they might not blow it this time.

And that's what worries him: overconfidence. He knows that despite President Bush's unpopularity, the odds still favor continued GOP control. "Voters used to choose their representatives; now representatives choose their voters," he says, neatly summarizing how incumbents in both parties have persuaded state legislatures to redraw maps to all but end competitive elections. Gerrymandering has meant that the Democrats have little margin for error to win the 15 they need. "It's like picking a lock," Emanuel says.

In the Senate, Democrats need six seats, which isn't easy either. But both Emanuel and his old boss, President Clinton, think the House is tougher. Senate races are more easily affected by the national mood, which favors the Democrats' strategy of nationalizing the midterm elections. The Republican strategy is to localize the contests. Republicans are banking on having bought off enough votes with the type of local pork-barrel projects that Democrats once used. The flaw in the GOP logic is that the last three midterms have all been nationalized. In 1994, the big issue powering the Gingrich Revolution was widespread dislike of Clinton. In 1998, Democrats held their own because of a national backlash against impeachment. And in 2002, Bush bucked tides that historically flow against the party controlling the White House by exploiting fears after 9/11.

Everyone agrees that the Democrats have to establish a positive agenda to win. Emanuel will weigh in with one in August in a book tentatively titled "The Plan: Big Ideas for America," coauthored with Bruce Reed, who ran domestic policy for Clinton. Emanuel reminds Democrats who are impatient for details that the "Contract With America" that helped bring the GOP to power in the House wasn't launched until mid-September of 1994.

The strategy for getting swing-district voters to fire their incumbents is already taking shape. Just as Harry Truman ran against the "Do-Nothing Congress," Democrats will run against the "Rubber-Stamp Congress," which pimped for K Street, took a dive on its critical oversight duties (particularly on Iraq) and helped the president bankrupt the country by shoveling money toward the rich. Emanuel won't say yet which votes supporting Bush he plans to wrap around the necks of incumbents. But look for gut-punch ads that highlight the incumbents' 90-plus percent backing for Bush on issues like cuts in college loans and veterans benefits, privatizing Social Security, selling out to Big Pharma on prescription drugs and halting stem-cell research. Republicans are now scurrying away from Bush, but it may be too late. They can't take those roll-call votes back.