Time to Face Reality on Iran

The huffing and puffing in Washington is so strong these days, it could start a gale. High officials warn Iran not to continue work on its nuclear program. Politicians on both sides of the aisle firmly concur. Pundits bellow louder still. Everyone agrees that Iran must be stopped. But how? That's when the silence sets in. No one has a serious plan that has much chance of success.

There are those who claim to have a solution--American military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. For some this is a stand, taken in the full expectation that the policy will never be adopted. In the 1950s some Republicans wanted to outflank the Truman administration, and argued for a military rollback of the Soviet Union. Others genuinely believe it to be possible. But bombing is not a serious option.

At best a strike would set back Iran's program by a few years. But it would inflame public opinion there and unify the nation in its determination to go nuclear. It is a substantial country--with three times the population of Iraq, for example--that has a powerful sense of national pride. And Iran would have many ways of retaliating, especially with 140,000 American troops next door in Iraq.

Sanctions will not work. Iran is the world's second largest oil exporter, with tens of billions of dollars in surplus cash these days. If we have few sticks, we also have few carrots. It's probably worth offering a package of real benefits--mostly as a signal to the Iranian people that we want good relations with them in return for cooperation on nukes--but I have no illusions that it would be accepted. The current regime does not want good relations with the West. It knows that more trade, contact and collaboration only undermine its grip on its society.

American policy toward Iran needs a fundamental rethink. We have a worthy goal: trying to stop Tehran from building nuclear weapons. We have gone about this in a sensible way, using allies, multilateral organizations and international agreements to pressure Tehran. But the policy simply isn't going to work.

Washington and its allies need to come to grips with reality and switch course, coming up with a new set of goals and a path to attain them. Otherwise we risk not just failure, but a very public humiliation and the further erosion of our limited credibility--in Washington, the "West" and the "international community."