Periscope

Waiting on a Fig Leaf

Will Haiti ever hold its elections? Last week, the Caribbean island nation's presidential vote was postponed for the fourth time since November. The U.N. Security Council convened on Friday and implored Haiti's leaders to hold elections by Feb. 7. But experts say that could still be too soon. "The last thing those interested in Haiti want is a process that is not viewed as legitimate and credible," says Robert McGuire, a Haiti expert at Trinity University in Washington. That may be difficult. A motley crew of 35 candidates--among them a former guerrilla believed to have drug ties and an alleged assassin who was arrested last week for possession of illegal weapons--is contesting the election, making it extremely likely that any result will be challenged by everyone but the winner. "If they lose, they're not going to accept it," says Robert Fatton Jr., a Haiti expert at the University of Virginia. "I don't see any type of consensus."

Meanwhile, the security situation on the island continues to deteriorate. A frenzy of abductions, reportedly as many as eight to 10 a day over the past few months, has transformed Haiti into the kidnapping capital of the world. "[Haiti] has no institutions, no judicial system, no government," says Fatton. "What's amazing is that everything isn't completely out of control, because no one is in control." And few observers expect elections--even if they are free and fair--to solve Haiti's problems. "The international community simply sees the elections as an exit strategy," says Dan Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank. The prospect of such a departure, particularly of the U.N. peacekeeping force, doesn't bode well for Haitians. "Everything points to some sort of deterioration, [and] everyone is afraid of that possibility," says Fatton. "It's a very dangerous moment. Everything is up for grabs." For a country that has endured 33 military coups in its 200-year history, that must have a familiar ring to it. But it's still an eerie one, even for Haiti.

--Malcolm Beith

Q&A Syria

Former Syrian vice president Abdel Halim Khaddam, in exile in France, is presenting himself as the man who might help replace Bashar al-Assad's increasingly isolated regime in Damascus. Last week he went public with specific accusations concerning its alleged involvement in the 2005 killing of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik Hariri. NEWSWEEK's Christopher Dickey spoke with Khaddam in Paris: