Iran: New Pressure Points
In recent weeks, Washington has been trying to turn up the heat on Iran--by way of Moscow. With President Vladimir Putin eager to impress before hosting this July's G8 summit--one former Kremlin official recently claimed that by attending, Western leaders will "demonstrate their indifference to the fate of freedom and democracy in Russia"--but unwilling to cave, it's turned into something of a chess game. Last week, U.S. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns proposed G8 discussions over controversial conflicts near Russia's borders; the Russians counterattacked by declaring they would continue to sell arms to Iran under existing agreements. Burns mentioned the possibility of military action against Iran; top Russian Gen. Yury Baluyevsky defiantly announced Moscow "will not take part."
Meanwhile, in Washington, some neoconservative activists have urged a sharp increase in U.S. efforts to undermine Tehran and thwart its nuclear ambitions. American Enterprise Institute scholar Michael Ledeen told NEWSWEEK: "The people hate [the regime]. It's a revolution waiting to happen." But U.S. intel agencies strongly disagree, according to six sources familiar with official analyses on Iran who asked not to be identified when discussing sensitive material. For a start, the sources told NEWSWEEK, there is little evidence of unrest among Iran's ethnic Persian majority. "Hard-liners have regained control ... and the government has become more effective at repressing the nascent shoots of personal freedom that had emerged earlier in the decade," according to testimony that intel czar John Negroponte gave Congress earlier this year. A Pentagon source, one of the six, said flatly that an attempted revolution in Iran "wouldn't succeed."
Intel agencies also believe that Tehran's nuclear program is widely popular among the Iranian public, including people otherwise unsympathetic to the mullahs' policies. Finally, several of the sources agreed that intel's assessment is that if the United States were to bomb Iran, the regime could turn to anti-American terrorism, using proxies like the Lebanese group Hizbullah or a corps of "martyrs" that Tehran claims to be recruiting. The sources said that intel officials have communicated all these points directly to senior officials, though it is up to policymakers how much heed they pay.
Mark Hosenball
South Korea: The Battle of the Bases
After a half century of exclusive use by a single tenant, billions of dollars of prime Asian real estate is about to become available for development. But there's a catch: the U.S. military and the South Korean government must first come to terms over a massive reorganization of GIs on the Korean peninsula. Under a 2004 deal, Washington will relocate its forces from bases throughout the country and consolidate them in a pair of facilities just south of Seoul. The agreement calls on South Korea to defray the costs of the redeployment by selling real estate once occupied by U.S. troops, much of which is prime acreage near urban areas. The ground beneath Camp Hieleah, in the southern port city of Pusan, for example, is estimated to be worth $1 billion.
The United States has already vacated more than two dozen installations, but South Korea refuses to take them back until the Pentagon complies with a new environmental law that stipulates its forces must make its old bases suitable for residential use before turning them over to Seoul. That would mean a significantly more thorough cleanup than what is called for under the 2004 agreement. Negotiations have intensified of late, and last week both sides brought in higher-ranking negotiators. The Pentagon wants the disagreement settled before its planned 2008 withdrawal from its main base in downtown Seoul, on one of the most valuable blocks of real estate in the entire Far East. Property hounds, stay tuned.
Stephen Glain
Nukes: Fallout in Iraq
Apart from the geopolitical fallout of a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites, there's reason to worry about the environmental impact. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Tehran's activities, is raising questions about dangers stemming from U.S. strikes on Iraq's biggest nuclear site during the 2003 invasion. In a report to be posted on the IAEA's Web site this week, the agency states that about 1,000 Iraqi men, women and children in a village near the former Tuwaitha nuclear-research facility are living inside an area contaminated by radioactive residues and ruins. "I can only guess that a lot of the damage at Tuwaitha was from bombing," Dennis Reisenweaver, an IAEA safety expert, told NEWSWEEK. "Any time you damage a facility that uses radioactive material, you have potential for spreading contamination." He said the agency was looking at other damaged Iraqi sites as well, but did not yet know the overall health impact. Asked to comment on the bombing, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, Lt. Col. Barry Johnson, said, "We have no record of that here.
Michael Hirsh
U.S.-China: Lost in Translation
President Hu Jintao can take comfort in one thing: most Chinese didn't see the excruciating reception he got at the White House. The state-controlled news media gave viewers at home only glimpses of last week's U.S. trip. But the painful details flashed among the country's Internet users. "To summarize my feelings while watching this live news: I felt like I was raped," wrote one participant in Tianya, a mainland-based Web forum.
For face-conscious Chinese, the visit was a problem even before it began. Hu's retinue had hoped for a full state dinner. Instead, they had to settle for a luncheon. That snub was intentional, at least. A series of unplanned slights and slurs compounded it. The arrival ceremony on the East Lawn began with the event's American announcer misidentifying Hu's home country as "the Republic of China"--the formal name for Taiwan. When Hu tried to deliver his opening speech, he was interrupted by a human-rights heckler. In the Oval Office afterward, Hu got a personal apology from his host. "I'm sorry this happened," Bush said. Those words may pose a challenge to official translators in Beijing: the Chinese language offers at least four delicately calibrated ways to say "sorry," and the state-run press will need to consider precisely which shade of U.S. regret will save the most face for Hu.
Melinda Liu and Richard Wolffe
Immigration: Double Benefit
What does immigration have to do with interest rates? A lot, says Peter Spencer, chief economist of the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, an economic forecasting group in London. The 300,000 immigrants who have moved to Britain from Eastern Europe in the past three years have helped plug a looming labor shortage, he says, and a recent ITEM Club study finds they are directly responsible for lowering British interest rates by a half percent. By working cheaply in labor-short fields like construction, agriculture and administrative support, the immigrants have helped offset bottlenecks that might have generated wage inflation. They also keep a lid on capital spending. "Instead of employers having to buy newer, more expensive machinery, they can hire a few more immigrants instead," says Spencer. The upshot: less pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates.
Though they represent a mere 1 percent of Britain's labor force, the workers are having a big impact, says Spencer, because they are integrating easily in British society. They also give Britain a competitive advantage over its Continental rivals that will last until they loosen labor laws that make it much tougher to hire and fire.
Rana Foroohar
Fashion: Is Corn the New Cotton?
Corn on the ... bod? Earlier this month, at the Biotechnology Industry Organization convention in Chicago, Ford fashion models strutted down a catwalk in dresses by designers like Oscar de la Renta made of fabric produced from corn kernels. Called Ingeo, the material is "thin and comfortable" and "doesn't stretch or rip," says Melissa Sack of Moral Fervor, which is launching an Ingeo T-shirt line. (Armani is putting an Ingeo knit shirt in its spring-summer 2006 collection.) "But the main reason we're using it is it's sustainable." Unlike nylon and polyester (oil-derived synthetics), Ingeo is made from a renewable crop: animal-feed corn, of which U.S. farms produce about 12 billion bushels annually. There are downsides, however. The fabric is machine-washable but can melt if ironed, and it costs a bit more than cotton or polyester. Still, corn-derived materials are versatile. Among other uses, they can be made into beer cups, as they are for Minnesota T-Wolves games.
Karen Springen
Books: Winning Words
Throughout history, leaders have used speeches to inspire their followers and win new ones, to protest injustice and commemorate the past. A new book, "Speeches that Changed the World: The Stories and Transcripts of the Moments That Made History," compiled by British historian Simon Sebag Montefiore, brings together some of the most momentous, beginning with the Ten Commandments given by God to Moses on Mount Sinai, and Jesus' Sermon on the Mount. Each speech is prefaced with a biography of the speaker and the story of its significance. There is plenty of stirring rhetoric, from Abraham Lincoln's somber Gettysburg Address to Sir Winston Churchill's rousing speech honoring Royal Air Force pilots during 1940's Battle of Britain, in which he declared: "Never ... was so much owed by so many to so few." There is wisdom, particularly in Elie Wiesel's millennium oration on "The perils of indifference," and controversy, too: "Women's education is almost more important than the education of men and boys," declaimed Indira Gandhi in 1974.
Montefiore doesn't steer clear of oratory that exemplifies evil and folly, like Hitler's speeches, which reveal his virtuosity as a political agitator as well as his cynical lies and camp posturing. And the book also makes clear that the passage of time has highlighted the self-interest of many powerful speakers. Though Lenin declared, 'Power to the Soviets!' in 1917, referring to the working people and peasants, history proved that he only ever meant power to be for himself and his party oligarchs. From deeply flawed diatribes to lofty disquisitions, each speech is a compelling, colorful window on the past.
Tara Pepper
Spike Lee just opened a new thriller, "Inside Man." He spoke with Nicki Gostin.
Jodie Foster looks very glam in this movie.
Spike Lee: I remember the first day she showed up in costume. The first thing out of my mouth was "Damn!" because her legs are great, and I don't remember ever seeing her legs in a film before. I'm glad "Inside Man" is the debut of Jodie Foster's legs.
Now you're working on a documentary about Hurricane Katrina.
It deals specifically with New Orleans, which we feel is the most unique city in the United States. This will be my 20th feature in the last 20 years. I know I'm getting old because I watched "Girl 6" again recently and there was stuff I forgot we shot.
So you, Sidney Lumet, Woody Allen and Martin Scorsese are the four most famous New York directors--and you're all short.
I never thought about that, but if you put us in a police lineup I think I would inch out, especially if the picture was taken when I had an Afro.
Do you and Woody cry together at Knicks games?
Last time I saw Woody at a game I went over and told him how much I liked "Match Point." I like to talk about movies; he likes to talk about the Knicks.
Oscar for best director or championship for the Knicks?
I would take the third New York Knickerbockers championship over receiving an Academy Award any day. That's not to say if I ever did get an Oscar, I would kick it to the curb.Nicki Gosten