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By Joe Cochrane
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Thaksin Shinawatra was in his favorite situation last week: declaring victory. The superconfident prime minister of Thailand stood before television cameras to announce that he had handily won the country's Feb. 6 parliamentary election--just minutes after the voting booths had closed. "The numbers are more than enough to establish a one-party government," he boasted, citing exit polls. Thaksin's cockiness--as much as the fact that his ruling Thai Rak Thai Party had, in fact, scored the biggest election victory in the country's history, winning more than 350 out of 500 seats--was more than his opponents could bear. "He's as arrogant as ever," sighs Surin Pitsuwan, a senior member of the main opposition Democrat Party. "It's not very Thai."
Indeed, since he took office in 2001, Thaksin, 55, has become a unique phenomenon in the country's political landscape. He is the first Thai prime minister ever to serve out a full term in a political system once dominated by shaky coalitions. He's been quick to implement populist policies, including all-but-free health care, debt relief for farmers and easy microcredit loans, while also building one of the strongest economies in Asia. His success at home has left opposition parties in the dust.
His position, however, is far less esteemed among Thailand's neighbors. The tycoon prime minister, whose family-owned Shin Corp. is the country's largest telecommunications firm, took office determined both to change Thailand and to transform himself into a regional statesman. To some he looked to be inheriting the mantle of former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Southeast Asia's most powerful (and irascible) voice. That aspiration now seems a long shot: Thaksin's grandstanding and harsh policies toward Muslim separatists have infuriated heavily Muslim countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. He's angered the West with his authoritarian style and willingness to do business with Burma. Even his response to the tsunami has become something of an irritant: he annoyed Indonesia by suddenly pressing to make Thailand the base for a regional tsunami warning system, a $50 billion endeavor that will involve major new telecom projects. The move was viewed as self-serving, although there has been no announcement of any related Shin Corp. contracts.
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An eleventh-hour election ploy underscores both Thaksin's style and its tendency to backfire outside Thailand's borders. Ten days before the poll he announced that Malaysia had captured a leading member of a bloody Islamic separatist movement in Thailand's Muslim south and may extradite him. Malaysia, which hadn't been consulted, responded angrily, saying they would likely not turn over the suspect, who is a Malaysian citizen. An unusually public tit-for-tat followed, which only further cemented Thaksin's credentials among Thai voters as an ultranationalist.
While Southeast Asian governments prefer to settle such delicate matters behind the scenes, Thaksin might ordinarily have been forgiven for using foreign relations to score points at home in the heat of an election campaign. But the Thai prime minister's gambit was just one of several incidents in recent months that have riled neighboring countries. Military repression of Islamic separatists in Thailand's historically restive southern provinces, which led to the deaths of 78 Muslim protesters while in military custody last October, sparked regional outrage. So did what was seen as an overly harsh Thai Army attack on armed militants at a mosque last April.
Critics say Thaksin's domestic political dominance has led to international hubris--a rampaging style that pays little heed to political niceties or the feelings of others. "He looks at the world as an extension of Thailand," says Pitsuwan, a former foreign minister. Perceptions that Thaksin is jockeying to become the leader of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (his aides deny it) have especially irked Indonesia--which, as the world's fourth largest nation, is unofficially seen as the body's dominant force. "As far as Indonesia is concerned, leadership is something you can't impose on others," says Marty Natalegawa, the Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman. While ASEAN has endorsed Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, Thaksin's choice to succeed Kofi Annan as Secretary-General of the United Nations, analysts say his boss's perceived arrogance and complaints about human-rights abuses in Thaksin's government-sponsored war on drugs and on Muslim separatists could sabotage the bid. "Without regional support, he won't get anywhere,'' says Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.
One of Thaksin's most visible diplomatic missteps has been with neighboring military-run Burma, which has been branded a pariah state for its long record of repression. Thaksin set himself the task of persuading the regime to change its ways. In the weeks after pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested again and 75 of her supporters killed by a junta-backed mob in June 2003, Thailand started a dialogue group with Burma and several Asian and European countries to try to get Burma, also known as Myanmar, to free Suu Kyi, hold elections, and move toward democracy. But the Bangkok Process, as it's called, sputtered last year. Thaksin, rightly or wrongly, was portrayed as being the junta's chief apologist, and more concerned with his family conglomerate's business interests in Burma than with democracy. Jakrapob Penkair, Thaksin's spokesman, denies the prime minister is coddling the generals, but says he doesn't agree with Western demands to pressure the regime.
Thaksin's style has also made it difficult to drum up regional support for curbing violence in southern Thailand. The prime minister enraged two neighbors by claiming repeatedly that Muslim separatists were launching attacks from hidden bases in Malaysia, and that they had received training in Indonesia. While both Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta publicly pledge cooperation, many believe that Thaksin's public antics are alienating potential allies in the fight. "When you make these kinds of statements, we try as far as possible to point to actual facts," says Natalegawa, "and utilize, above all else, diplomatic channels."
Thaksin's foreign policy hasn't been a complete disaster. He has successfully courted China for expanded trade, and has given gifts in return, including denying visas for Taiwan officials. He was lauded by the Bush administration for sending troops to Iraq and being a strong partner in the war on terror, and was rewarded when Washington named Thailand a major non-NATO ally. Penkair, the Thai government spokesman, acknowledges that Thaksin is prone to off-the-cuff comments. "There could be a slip from time to time," he says. But he dismisses talk of a rift within ASEAN.
Staying within character, Thaksin seems to believe that leaning forward is the best foreign policy. He has already spearheaded a drive for economic cooperation across Asia and during his next term will push the idea of a single Asian currency to rival the euro. If his style seems indelicate at times, it gives him a profile that more subdued colleagues like Malaysia's Abdullah Badawi and Indonesia's Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono lack. "I think ASEAN does need leadership, it does need a Thaksin," says Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. "But how he plays that role is the question." Bolstered by his huge election win, don't expect him to play it any differently than he has thus far.
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