HOST CITIES: OLYMPIC CALCULATIONS

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By Mark Starr

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If New York City loses its bid for the 2012 Olympics this week, the United States immediately becomes a heavy favorite to host the next Summer Games in 2016. On Wednesday, the International Olympic Committee will vote on 2012, with Paris and London regarded as front runners. If a European favorite does win, the U.S. Olympic Committee could ordain New York as its 2016 candidate, but is more likely to reopen competition. In 2002, when New York won USOC backing for the 2012 bid, 9/11 was a uniquely compelling factor. Some rivals said that New York's victory was more about politics than the quality of its proposal. San Francisco (the losing finalist to New York), Washington, Houston and Los Angeles could all compete to become the official American designate for 2016.

Whichever city prevailed at home would have a big edge. The IOC prefers to rotate its Games around the world. And both Europe (Athens 2004 and the presumed 2012 winner) and Pacific Rim nations (Sydney 2000 and Beijing 2008) will have hosted the Summer Olympics twice since the United States last staged one in Atlanta in 1996. The IOC would love to hold a first-ever Olympics in Africa or South America, with Cape Town and Rio de Janeiro the leading possibilities. But at the time of the 2016 vote, South Africa will be consumed with preparations for soccer's 2010 World Cup. And Rio, which bid for 2012 but didn't make the final five, will have had its hands full hosting the 2007 Pan American Games.

Daniel Doctoroff, head of the New York team, says he hasn't given 2016 a thought, but concedes that it's hard to imagine New York sustaining its effort. "We have at this moment today a unique combination of forces--the leadership in place, the resources ready to go and the land, which is always at a premium," he says, noting that the last-minute stadium deal that rescued the 2012 bid does not contain a future option. "I just don't know if we will be able to keep those forces in place for another four years."

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