Marriage by the Numbers

One striking aspect of this Where Are They Now exercise: none of these women divorced. Perhaps it's no coincidence. Statistically, people who marry at much higher-than-average ages don't have lower odds for divorce. But some experts are starting to think that later-in-life marriages may have better chances of survival. "It makes sense--if you're getting married at a later age ... you'll have gone through a lot of relationships, and you'll know what you want [and] what you don't," says Elizabeth Gregory, director of the women's studies program at the University of Houston and the author of "The New Later Motherhood," to be published in 2007.

Today a new generation of sociologists continues to tinker with the delayed-marriage puzzle. The latest research--a 2001 study by Princeton sociologists Joshua Goldstein and Catherine Kenney and a 2004 paper by University of Maryland sociologist Steven Martin--concludes that roughly 90 percent of baby boomers will eventually marry. In a shift from the earlier studies, done in the mid-'80s, however, the newer studies conclude that nowadays, a college degree makes a woman more likely to marry, not less. The Princeton paper suggests that for female college graduates born between 1960 and 1964, 97.4 percent will eventually marry.

When today's single women discuss their marriage ambitions, however, they sound markedly different from women 20 years ago. "I just don't think the alarmist mentality is there anymore," says Bonnie Maslin, a New York psychologist who was quoted in the 1986 story. "I just don't see the franticness."

By most accounts, men's attitudes have evolved, too. "Generationally, I think Gen-Xers [of both genders] have a real commitment to marriage," says John Wise, 35, a finance manager in Baltimore. That's true, he says, because many watched their parents divorce. Wise figured he'd marry by 27, but he's still on the hunt. And despite the cultural notion that it's women who fixate on bridal magazines, Wise admits he's spent time imagining the blowout wedding he'll share with his bride, whoever she may be.

Beyond all the research and forecasts, the real story of this anniversary is the unexpected happily-ever-afters. In the 1986 story, Boston public-relations executive Sally Jackson was happily single. At 47, she married a man she'd known for years. Today she revels in having a travel companion, someone to love unconditionally who'll love her back. "Being blissfully married is better than being blissfully single, but not by that much," she said a few weeks ago. Several days later she called back. She'd lied: "Being married is really a lot better," she says. That may not be what single men or women want to hear. But for people of all ages who hope to offer their hands in marriage someday, the odds look far better today than a long-ago magazine article may have led you to believe.

With Andrew Murr, Karen Springen, Joan Raymond, Marc Bain, Alice-Azania Jarvis and Sam Register

© 2006