A DANGEROUS PEACE

If Afghans are optimistic, it is in part because they've had such a large role in shaping conditions on the ground. Early on the U.S. military decided to establish a "soft footprint" in the country by relying on Afghan security forces to ensure security. The American military has made a "concerted effort to win [Afghan] hearts and minds through such initiatives as the provincial reconstruction teams," says Maj. Gen. Craig Weston, who is helping to rebuild the Afghan Army. So far the United States and its allies have demobilized 12,000 ex-combatants, trained roughly 25,000 Afghan police and 12,000 soldiers and built more than 200 schools and 150 health clinics.

Much of this progress could be lost if the country deteriorates into a major political crisis or inter-ethnic rivalry. Karzai's recent fallout with Fahim risks an open conflict with Northern Alliance officials and Afghan warlords. If Karzai wins the election, as he is expected to do, it will be critical to heal these rifts. Otherwise, what has been built so far will likely collapse.

SETH G. JONES IS AN ASSOCIATE POLITICAL SCIENTIST AT THE RAND CORPORATION.

© 2004