THE DEVIL YOU THINK YOU KNOW

Put them down? The ayatollah offered no specifics, but the implications, as Abdullah would interpret them, are profoundly unsettling. Saudi Arabia has a large Shia minority that sits astride its main oilfields. What would prevent the Iranians from stirring them up? Or redirecting those Saudi jihadists crossing over from Syria?

All this will force Abdullah to face the question of Saudi-backed terrorism. Until today, the Saudis either would not or cannot identify the recruiters of the 15 Saudis who ended up on the planes on 9/11--or identify who in Saudi Arabia provided the cash for the attacks. Nor can Abdullah be sure that this grass-roots terrorism will not turn against Al Saud. With problems like these, he's unlikely to begin addressing more basic problems, such as structural unemployment (estimated at 30 percent), runaway population growth and an ultimately fatal dependence on oil.

Saudi royals may have put a good face on the succession. But let's not delude ourselves. When it comes to jitters over Saudi Arabia, we're talking about a lot more than just a spike in oil prices.

BAER, A FORMER CIA OFFICER, IS AUTHOR OF "Sleeping With the Devil"

© 2005