A Dramatic Return

Her return to Pakistan is the first step in a long and perilous journey toward the free and fair elections that are hoped for next year. But there are no guarantees. Sharif, who is for the moment at least the country's most popular politician according to a recent poll, is still in exile. Pakistan's Supreme Court is still hearing petitions arguing that Musharraf was ineligible to be reelected in the indirect presidential poll that he won earlier this month. The results will not be official until the court case is complete. The court is also listening to arguments claiming that the corruption amnesty ordinance is unconstitutional. Most analysts believe that the court will not overturn Musharraf's controversial, though unanimous, reelection to a new term. If it does, Musharraf would likely declare martial law and to postpone elections indefinitely. If the court voids the ordinance, Bhutto may be answerable to serious corruption charges dating back to her two terms as premier in the 1990s.

But if all goes well—and the bombing remains an isolated incident—then Pakistan could be on its way to a democratic transition. Musharraf has promised to resign from the army before he is sworn for a new term as president next month. The loss of his uniform will strip him of at least some power. And if Bhutto and her PPP run strongly in the election, bringing her to the premiership for a third time, Musharraf will have to share power for the first time. It's unclear how he would deal with a near co-equal. "It will be difficult for him to accept a system in which he is not in the driver's seat," says Rizvi. But without the army under his command, he'll have to live with it.

For now both Musharraf and Bhutto are showing restraint. "Her strategy will be not to annoy Musharraf and to exploit the new political space available to her," adds Rizvi. Pakistanis can only hope for that imperfect-but-ideal outcome called democracy.

With Fasih Ahmed in Karachi

© 2007