LIVING POLITICS
Howard Fineman
It’s Independents’ Day
In New Hampshire even Ron Paul could have a shot.
Whatever Hollywood says a presidential candidate is supposed to look like, Ron Paul isn't it. At 72, wearing mall-walking shoes and an inquisitive smile, he looks like a retired obstetrician, which he is. His platform is hardly from central casting, either. He not only wants U.S. troops home from Iraq, he wants them home from the rest of the planet. He wants to abolish an alphabet of federal agencies and the income tax, dismantle the Patriot Act, reconnect the dollar to the price of gold, decriminalize prostitution and call an end to the drug war. Seated in the House Speaker's Lobby, he speaks matter-of-factly, like a doctor describing an easy delivery. "This is my freedom message," says the Texas representative. "People have to be left alone."
Much of the world dismisses Paul as a libertarian crank. But mainstream candidates from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have good reason to watch him. That reason's called the New Hampshire primary. Always unpredictable—there's not even a date set for it yet—the primary is more mysterious now because a record 44 percent of voters have registered "undeclared." Suspicious of established politics, with an antiwar sentiment stretching back to Vietnam, they decide at the last minute. Since they can vote in either party's race, their migrations choose the outcome in both. In 2000, two thirds asked for GOP ballots, boosting John McCain and dooming Bill Bradley, who was going after the same voters.
This time, Obama, Giuliani and Mc Cain are the big names fishing in the sea of independents. But conditions have changed: it's expected that two thirds of those voters will take part in the Democratic contest, which could be Obama's main, or last, chance. His yearning to change a "broken political system" is a good hook, but only if he can convince voters he has the guts and skill to do it. He has work to do: a recent Marist College poll shows Clinton leading him among independents 38 to 29 percent. A hot Democratic race would be bad for McCain and Giuliani, whose appeal rests in part on their perceived distance from GOP orthodoxy. The arithmetic of the undeclared is one reason Romney is sprinting to the right and why Mike Huckabee is getting a look in the state.
As George W. Bush's Republican coalition falls apart, its rougher edges become more visible and Paul's small-government, isolationist message gets heard. Many New Hampshirites see the state's LIVE FREE OR DIE motto as an article of faith, and they blame mushrooming federal deficits as much on the GOP as on the Democrats. "Independents are so mad about spending they can't see straight," says Jennifer Donahue of Saint Anselm College in Manchester. These voters loathe the war in Iraq, too. "They are as antiwar as anyone here, maybe more so," she says.
For now, Paul is a blip on New Hampshire's radar; in a recent poll, he stood at 5 percent among independents. But that could change. He's banked more than $5 million, recently raised more in the state than most other candidates, has a huge Web presence and just bought $1.1 million in New Hampshire TV ads. His staff is inexperienced, but smart. Andy Smith, a pollster at University of New Hampshire, says Paul could get 10 to 20 percent of the vote in the GOP race. That would be a dramatic story, but maybe not one most Republicans would want to read.
© 2007


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Member Comments
Posted By: Miss_Sonic_4 @ 03/29/2008 5:03:59 AM
Comment: I fail to comprehend why his wardrobe is important enough to lead this article. And I absolutely love the way you stray from Paul, who is presumably supposed to be the focus of the article, for an entire paragraph and then say "oh, right, and 5%." It would be nice to get a clear opinion, also. You mock and criticize him, and then seem to drift back to a positive note, only to end in uncertainty. Get your own views together before attempting to write a valid article about the man who may be America's last hope.
Posted By: countsueulaw @ 12/18/2007 12:29:47 PM
Comment: It is sobering and an honor to be alive and witnessing what is happening. This is really, really, truly history in the making. It is the One and Only opportunity of this magnitude, and comes Once in a lifetime, if that. An opportunity to really make a difference in the direction our nation is going.
I'd like to ask you to reflect for a minute. What if..........What if we didn't have the internet.....Ron Paul would not have a chance. Thankfully we still have a free and open internet, where we can gather information, research, and organize. But what about the future? Who is going to protect our right to freely gather and disseminate information on the internet? We have seen already that there are forces in the mainstream media that are doing some Pretty Scary Things when it comes to "reporting". If it was deliberate misrepresentation of a movie, or what happened in a car accident, or a sports event, that is one thing. But in the most important event, the one that will decide the President Of The United States Of America, the traditional media and their Powers are banking on the dumbing down of America.
Make no mistake. This year it is not about Republican or Democrat, Libertarian, liberal, or conservative, it is not even about the war in Iraq, really, or even the dollar, or immigration, or abortion, although these things are important. It is about a Leader that is a Leader of the People, and not owned by the Special Interests, not owned by the Bilderbergs or whatever, not owned by the media, not packaged by a pack of consultants who tell him what to say and do, a real, true, honest to goodness American Leader. Ron Paul for President!
Posted By: oruval @ 11/30/2007 2:17:24 AM
Comment: You have no idea how many voices speak for Dr. Paul. All the money that has been raised for him came from the people. He didn't even ask for it. As for you Howard I ask you this. Do you support the Constitution? Because you sure are flexing that second ammendment with a crack article like this. Ron Paul supporters are going to amaze you come primaries. What will you write about then? RON PAUL 2008 SUPPORTER!
SH