Diplomatic Diary: Style Over Substance

It's turning into an end-of-summer ritual, as seasonal as the cooler air and the start of the school year. If it's September, it must be time to talk Iraq to the United Nations.

This year, judging by the press coverage, you might think we're headed for one of two versions of fall at the U.N.. Either the Bush administration has just reversed its go-it-alone policy and the world is about to give itself one giant group hug in Iraq. Or the rest of the world (led by those ever-untrustworthy French and Germans) are going to slash and burn the latest olive branch from President Bush.

In fact, there is a third scenario that is far more likely--and far closer to what happened in New York last year. Amid all the fanfare about Bush's challenge to the U.N. last September, and the anti-Saddam resolution that followed, one thing is now clear: nothing much changed. The United States invaded Iraq with just the British on board, and most of the rest of the world turned away. In reality, all sides got the outcome they wanted. The Americans and Brits won some diplomatic cover for the war they thought was inevitable. The rest declared their opposition to a war they were never going to join.

So what will happen now that President Bush is going back to the U.N. for more troops and even more money for Iraq? Nothing much that will change the facts on the ground. Washington and its closest allies are not banking on vast numbers of extra troops or extra cash, although both would be welcome. What they want is, once again, more diplomatic cover for the occupation. And the rest of the world may well oblige, as long as they can again declare their opposition to the whole thing.

Fall at the U.N. is about style, not substance. But don't take my word for it: listen to the principal players. When Secretary of State Colin Powell first floated the notion of a new U.N. resolution, in the wake of last month's dreadful bomb attack on the U.N. headquarters in Baghdad, he was crystal clear. He had no time or energy to engage in intellectual debates about who should control Iraq's politics. That again was his message at the weekend, just before Bush's Sunday speech to the nation. "Look, there is enough work here for everyone, but the lead role has to be played by the United States," Powell told NBC's Meet The Press. "We are the ones who are there now. We are the ones who took over the country. We have governing responsibility. And we believe that there is no need for a contest over these."

Powell also explained how he was expecting not much more than 10,000 troops to come from the rest of the world--less than 10 per cent of the U.S. forces in Iraq right now. But more than that, he wanted a display of global harmony. "What we are really interested in in this resolution, though, is to get the international community to come together and participate in the political reconstruction of Iraq," he said.