The Harder Hunt For Bin Laden

Even Zabihullah says that bin Laden had a close call not long ago. He says the terror chieftain and his protective entourage scurried into the bushes when a U.S. aircraft streaked overhead as they were walking along a mountain trail. The plane did not see them. Another Taliban fighter who calls himself Assadullah Zarafat says that several months ago, U.S. and Afghan forces brushed by Mullah Omar in Uruzgan province without recognizing him. Omar and his security detachment had stopped at a local mosque to say their afternoon prayers. As they were finishing, several pickup trucks and Humvees carrying Afghan and U.S. soldiers pulled up to the mosque and the Afghans went in to pray. Mullah Omar told his men to hide their weapons and not to react. He then led the newcomers in prayer.

Bin Laden could also give his enemies an opening because, rather than lying low, he seems eager to gamble by taking the fight to them. Al Qaeda is believed to be behind recent attacks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. And Qaeda terrorists may have tried to kill Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf with a bomb last week, missing his car by seconds. Al-Zawahiri, in the latest video aired by Al-Jazeera on Friday, warned of new attacks. Yet such operations--which require wide networks of operatives, one of whom might be interested in a $25 million reward--could provide intelligence-gathering opportunities to Western agents.

The real test of bin Laden's vulnerability may now come in Pakistan. If the attack on Musharraf proves to be Qaeda-linked--rather than an "inside" assassination attempt, perhaps by members of the Pakistani military--it could backfire against bin Laden by provoking the Pakistani president into decisive action. U.S. intelligence officials say their ability to capture bin Laden and his associates is largely dependent on intelligence assistance from Pakistan, an ally that once supported the Taliban and whose loyalties have sometimes been in doubt. "Most of Musharraf's actions against jihadis have been reluctantly taken under tremendous U.S. pressure, often preceding or just following a high-level American visit," says Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani diplomat. One U.S. intel official, asked about a potential breakthrough against bin Laden, responds simply: "That's going to be a Pakistani thing."

For Bush as much as Musharraf, bin Laden may be an escalating priority. While Bush focused on Saddam, the president conveniently dropped all references to the man he once vowed to get "dead or alive." But nailing the chief culprit of 9/11 by next November could all but secure a second term for him, and his Democratic rivals are already bringing up the subject. "Now that Saddam's been captured, people will say, 'That's nice, but where's bin Laden?'," says Sen. Jack Reed, a Democratic member of the Armed Services Committee.

Finally, bin Laden may someday, somewhere, make a mistake. An exhausted Saddam was caught eight months after he had to abandon his lavish palaces. Bin Laden, of course, has been roughing it for far longer. Still, life on the lam can wear down the toughest outlaw. A veteran Islamic militant who is known by the nom de guerre Abdullah claimed that last February he was assigned to deliver medicines to an ailing bin Laden in Afghanistan's thickly forested Kunar province. "He looked weak and frail," said Abdullah. "He moves with a few close aides and guards and never stays at any place for long. To avoid detection he often travels during nights and in bad weather," he said. So who knows? Maybe a really bad cold--and a decision to linger one night too many in the same place to recover--will be enough to do in the man who has yet to answer for the worst attack on American soil.

WITH RON MOREAU, ZAHID HUSSAIN AND MARK HOSENBALL

© 2003