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NEWSWEEK Poll, Nov. 2, 2007

1. Now I’m going to name seven Democratic presidential candidates. After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in 2008. The choices are… (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-7)

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Total   Dem Lean Dem 8/1-2/07 6/21/071
44 Hillary Clinton 45 39 44 43
24 Barack Obama 25 23 23 27
12 John Edwards 11 14 14 14
4 Dennis Kucinich 3 6 2 3
4 Joe Biden 2 5 3 1
3 Bill Richardson 1 7 1 2
* Chris Dodd 0 1 1 1
* Other candidate (VOL.) * 0 12 23
3 None/No preference (VOL.) 4 2 4 *
7 Don’t know 9 3 7 7
100 100 100 100 100

1 Trend results for Thursday night interviewing only (n=186).
2 Trend results for Other candidate include Mike Gravel.
3 Trend results for Other candidate include Michael Bloomberg and Mike Gravel.

2. Now I’m going to name eight Rebublican presidential candidates. After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate in 2008. The choices are… (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-8)

BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

Total   Rep Lean Rep 8/1-2/07 6/21/07
30 Rudy Giuliani 31 23 30 27
15 Fred Thompson 16 10 22 19
14 John McCain 13 18 13 15
12 Mitt Romney 12 11 10 12
7 Mike Huckabee 5 15 2 4
3 Ron Paul 2 5 2 2
2 Duncan Hunter 2 4 1 *
* Tom Tancredo * 2 1 1
* Other candidate (VOL.) * 0 44 75
6 None/No preference (VOL.) 8 1 5 5
11 Don’t know 11 11 10 8
100 100 100 100 100

4 Trend results for Other candidate include Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson
5 Trend results for Other candidate include Michael Bloomberg, Jim Gilmore, Sam Brownback, and Tommy Thompson.

3a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

  Total Clinton Total Giuliani Undec./Other  
CURRENT TOTAL 49 45 6 =100
Red states (Bush in ‘04) 43 51 6 =100
Blue states (Kerry in ‘04) 54 40 6 =100
TRENDS        
6/20-21/07 51 44 5 =100
5/2-3/07 49 46 5 =100
2/28-3/1/07 46 47 7 =100
1/24-25/07 49 46 5 =100
1/17-18/07 47 48 5 =100
12/6-7/06 48 47 5 =100

4. If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were to run as an INDEPENDENT presidential candidate in 2008, how likely would you be to vote for him? Would you say… (READ)

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

  Very
likely		 Somewhat
likely		 Not too
likely		 Not at
all likely		 DK  
CURRENT TOTAL 4 18 20 47 11 =100
Red states 5 20 18 47 10 =100
Blue states 3 15 22 49 11 =100
Republicans 3 11 26 52 8 =100
Democrats 2 20 16 51 11 =100
Independents 7 23 21 38 11 =100
TRENDS            
6/20-21/07 5 21 24 41 9 =100
11/5-6/98 (Ross Perot) 12 15 14 58 1 =100

5a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Rudy Giuliani, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; Giuliani, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

  Total Clinton Total Giuliani Total Bloomberg Undec./Other  
CURRENT TOTAL 44 38 11 7 =100
Red states 39 43 12 6 =100
Blue states 50 33 9 8 =100
TRENDS          
6/20-21/07 46 37 11 6 =100


6. Turning to some different questions… What is your overall opinion of George W. Bush? Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

  Favorable Unfavorable DK  
CURRENT TOTAL 34 58 8 =100
Republicans 73 19 8 =100
Democrats 7 88 5
Independents 22 66 12 =100
TRENDS        
10/27-29/04 52 43 5 =100
10/21-22/04 50 47 3 =100
10/14-15/04 51 45 4 =100
9/30-10/2/04 49 46 5 =100
9/9-10/04 52 44 4 =100
9/2-3/04 55 40 5 =100
7/29-30/04 48 48 4 =100
7/8-9/04 51 45 4 =100
5/13-14/04 46 46 8 =100
4/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100
3/25-26/04 51 44 5 =100
3/18-19/04 52 42 6 =100
2/19-20/04 49 47 4 =100
2/24-25/00 55 36 9 =100
1/17-19/00 66 26 8 =100
10/21-24/99 71 21 8 =100

7. In deciding which presidential candidate to support in 2008, which ONE of the following issues is most important to you...(READ AND ROTATE 1-7)

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Total   Rep Dem Ind
22 The economy and jobs 14 30 19
19 Iraq 13 26 19
17 Health care 14 22 15
15 Terrorism and national security 27 5 14
10 Taxes and government spending 16 4 11
7 Immigration 10 3 8
5 The environment and global warming 1 7 8
1 Other/None of these (vol.) 2 * 1
4 Don’t know 3 3 5
100 100 100 100

8. On the subject of Iraq… All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Current   8/1-2/077
26 Getting better 16
29 Getting worse 41
42 About the same 38
3 Don’t know 5
100   100

7 Trend results based on total adults.

9. Some people say we should have a third major political party in this country, in addition to the Democrats and Republicans. Do you agree or disagree?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Current   6/20-21/07 4/7-16/068 10/15-19/03 8/27-9/8/98 7/25-28/96
54 Agree 57 53 46 46 58
39 Disagree 36 40 44 47 37
7 Don't know 7 7 10 7 5
100   100 100 100 100 100

8 1996-2006 trends from Pew Research Center, based on total adults.

This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from October 31 to November 1. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,002 registered voters. Registered voters were screened from a random-digit-dial (RDD) telephone sample of national adults. Registration status is self-reported. 77 percent of adults in the sample reported being registered. Results are weighted so that the sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based on 1,002 registered voters. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error.

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:

337 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
315 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
288 Independents (plus or minus 8)

430 Republicans/Republican leaners (plus or minus 6)
433 Democrats/Democratic leaners (plus or minus 6)

93 Republican leaners (plus or minus 13)
118 Democratic leaners (plus or minus 12)

501 Red states (plus or minus 6) (voted Bush in 2004)
501 Blue states (plus or minus 6) (voted Kerry in 2004)

In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting surveys can also introduce error or bias to poll results.
 
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