Perils Of Victory

To justify the coming operation in Iraq, many in Washington draw analogies with the American (and Allied) occupation that helped democratize West Germany and Japan after World War II. But other precedents are more recent and more relevant: in a report last fall, the Carnegie Foundation cited Haiti and Afghanistan as inauspicious examples. Even closer to the scene is Lebanon, which Israel invaded in 1982 to end terrorism and install a pliant government. At first the tanks of the Tsahal were welcomed with flowers by the Shiites in the south of the country. But a year later, suicide bombers had the Israelis under siege and blew up hundreds of Americans and French who went to help. The United States pulled out in 1984. Israel couldn't extricate itself for 18 years. The history of Iraq--a much bigger and richer country than Lebanon, but every bit as fragmented and complex--suggests that after a U.S. invasion, far from becoming a City on a Hill that provides a shining example, it will be more like a Roach Motel: you can check in, but you can't check out.

"We are against the American policy everywhere, especially in Iraq, but we will not put obstacles in the way of overthrowing Saddam," an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general named Masjidi told a member of the Iraqi opposition recently. "If the Americans stay for more than a few weeks, we will issue fatwas"--that is, religious edicts to kill them.

In fact, every one of Iraq's neighbors has its own agenda for the country. Turkey has threatened military action to stop the Kurds of northern Iraq from seizing the oil capital of Kirkuk. Iran has trained an Iraqi Shiite army to seize power in the south. Syria has spent generations cultivating covert contacts with thugs in the ruling Ba'ath Party. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are desperate to see Iraq's Sunni minority continue to rule, while King Abdullah's cousins in Jordan are active pretenders to the old Hashemite throne in Baghdad. Cynical colonial powers like the British and French knew well how to exploit such divisions. That's one reason they're still hated in the region. Americans tend to step into these conflicts, trying to resolve them, and become targets themselves as they did in Lebanon and Somalia.

Nor are the dangers limited to Iraqi territory. Or even to the Middle East. Terror is one of the world's most thoroughly globalized industries. Late last week the State Department issued a blanket warning to all Americans living outside the United States telling them to keep adequate medicine and food on hand "to ensure they are prepared for an emergency, whether it is a personal emergency or is the result of political or economic unrest, natural disaster, or terrorist attack." They should all be ready to leave the countries where they are living on short notice, the warning suggests.

"What makes you think the front will be in Baghdad and Basra?" asks an Arab intelligence officer who met often with Saddam in the 1980s and 1990s. "Why not in New York, or Washington, or Paris?" Saddam wouldn't even have to give the order. Since 1998 Osama bin Laden has declared, as one of his key justifications for holy war, "the great devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance"--i.e., the United States and Israel. Just as he blew up the U.S. destroyer Cole in Yemen and attacked the United States on 9-11 at moments of high emotion in the Muslim world because of the Palestinian issue, he can be expected to time new attacks to coincide with Muslim anger about the war in Iraq.

Israel is already a primary target for terrorists. Even if no Scuds are launched against it, violence there almost certainly will escalate. And there are enormous fears among Israel's Arab neighbors that in the midst of a regional war, the extreme right in Israel might achieve a long-cherished goal: the massive expulsion of Palestinians from the occupied territories. The government of Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel, repeatedly has sought guarantees this will not happen. The government of Ariel Sharon has refused to give them.