Judging The Case

It was only a fake, a prop thrown into his speech for the benefit of the cameras. But Colin Powell's small vial of simulated anthrax was still too hot to handle for his aides as they flew to New York. In a jittery nation fearful of war abroad and terrorist attacks at home, nobody wanted to carry the dried silicon powder onboard a commercial flight from the nation's capital. So it was left to Powell's spokesman, Richard Boucher, to carry the vial (complete with an official chemical analysis of its contents) on the secretary of State's plane, which took off from Andrews Air Force Base, to avoid triggering a terrorist alert at Reagan national airport. More than any murky satellite photo, Powell's prop--designed to show the world how much terror Saddam Hussein could unleash with a fraction of his secret weapons stockpile--would become the enduring image of the historic session at the United Nations. On the eve of war, and the eve of possible terrorist attacks, it looked like the sum of all fears.

As Powell cranked up the pressure to go to war, America's threat barometer was moving in the same direction. At the end of the week, the administration raised its official threat level to Code Orange--the second highest security alert--based on fresh warnings of Qaeda attacks on American targets. Intelligence sources say the planned attacks appear to be timed to take place between the end of the hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca, in mid-February, and the start of war in Iraq. "Our reporting strongly suggests that Al Qaeda has completed preparations for multiple attacks with spectaculars set for the United States and probably Saudi Arabia, and is delaying them until just before or just after a war begins with Iraq," says a classified FBI bulletin obtained by NEWSWEEK. "In that situation, Al Qaeda attacks will be described as an effort to defend Iraqi Muslims against the attack of the U.S.-led Crusaders." NEWSWEEK has learned that one of the administration's most immediate concerns is the possibility of multiple attacks on American Jewish groups and businesses. Late last week FBI field offices across the country began contacting Jewish leaders and rabbis and urging them to enhance security. Other threats include reports of an attack using chemical, biological or radiological materials. "We had much more information on chem-bio stuff," says one senior law-enforcement official. "That really unnerved me."

For the Bush administration, those imminent terrorist threats only underscore the pressing need to go on the offensive against Baghdad. Saddam's terrorist ties were at the heart of Powell's pitch to the Security Council last week. Yet intelligence officials acknowledge that the Qaeda story remains the most tenuous piece of the Iraqi puzzle. And for many American allies, the prospect of a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq is seen as a dangerous provocation that could set off a new wave of terrorist attacks in Europe and the Arab world. "I'm not sure that the way you make people more moderate in the region is by bombing Baghdad," says Chris Patten, the European Union's commissioner for external affairs.

Battle-tested by countless military briefings, Powell was the embodiment of overwhelming force. In contrast to President George W. Bush's vague if forceful sermons on good and evil, Powell fired a 76-minute salvo of detailed evidence with photos, tapes, sources and place names. The most popular--and most respected--member of Bush's cabinet was gambling that American intelligence could shame and shock the United Nations into signing up for military action. In normal times, diplomats try to avert conflict. But here was the spectacle of America's most senior diplomat arm-twisting a reluctant world to go to battle. His public diplomacy transfixed a television audience across the planet; administration officials estimated a worldwide viewership of more than 1 billion. So just how convincing was Powell's case for war? And will Powell--and the United Nations--survive with their reputations intact?

At the United Nations, Powell found himself pitted against a worldwide antiwar movement led by France. Inside the Security Council, he engaged in a series of sharp exchanges with his French counterpart, Dominique de Villepin. The retired general spent the morning excoriating the inspections process in Iraq, while the career French diplomat (and published poet) shuffled impatiently in his chair. At a closed-door lunch, France kept pushing the Council for more time and more inspectors. Finally, the normally easygoing Powell snapped. He charged that Paris, not Washington, was undermining the United Nations. "This Council has to stand by what it says," he insisted. "Resolution 1441 has been violated."

The early reviews of Powell's performance were mixed. In the U.S. audience he changed so many minds that half of all Americans are now ready to go to war immediately, compared with only a third last month, according to the new NEWSWEEK Poll. And yet overseas, Powell seemed to have little impact, as many prominent world leaders showed scant enthusiasm for the war. No matter how steadfastly Britain, Spain and Italy stood behind Bush and Powell, Washington found no support in Paris, Berlin, Moscow or Beijing. Several senior State Department officials believe (or fervently hope) that they already have a majority inside the Security Council for a second resolution against Iraq. But once again this week, the Bush administration is mounting another diplomatic offensive on the world's capitals.