A Drop of Blood in the Water

The Clinton campaign typically enters the spin room after a debate like a triumphant conquering army. But after the fireworks at Drexel University Tuesday night, the looks on the faces of the Clinton team betrayed an unfamiliar sentiment: concern. Judging from their tone and their body language, Hillary's aides were relieved to have survived the onslaught in Philadelphia—and happy to head back out on the campaign trail.
 
"I don't think there's another candidate who could have taken two hours of sustained attack from the other candidates and come out on top," said Clinton spokesman Jay Carson. "She remained poised and calm and stayed on message. That's what you're going to have to do against the Republican attack, because the attacks in this debate were nothing compared to what the Republicans will throw at you.
 
"These guys want to talk about caricatures that have been formed from 15 years of Republican attacks, but when voters get to know her around the country, we've seen what's happening," Carson continued. "Look at where her numbers are against all the Democrats and Republicans. As voters get to see the real Hillary Clinton, she's doing great."
 
Clinton continues to enjoy sizable leads over her rivals in most national polls. And none of the attacks lobbed at her from seemingly every corner Tuesday night were knockout blows—although some late-round stumbling over a question about whether illegal immigrants should be awarded drivers licenses, as proposed by New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, constituted as vulnerable a moment as Clinton has had in this campaign. But the Drexel debate marks the opening of the final push before the first primaries, and key strategic bets are being placed. And Clinton's rivals relished the feeling that, for a moment at least, they might have knocked the Clinton juggernaut off stride.

Heading into the crucial two-month stretch before voting begins, Clinton will spend an increasing amount of time traveling to the early-voting states—hitting smaller events in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to her aides. That means less time in the big states that vote en masse on Feb. 5—places where Clinton has attracted big crowds and big donors. Recent soundings have shown Iowa to be up for grabs, much to her competitors' delight. (The latest University of Iowa poll gives Clinton a slim two-point lead over Obama, who is just six points ahead of Edwards. All three are well within the margin of error.) "She has set this up now," said Jim Margolis, senior adviser to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's campaign. "She's sent in 100 extra people to Iowa, and her people said this week she's going to put us away." Obama's aides too regard Iowa is a must-win state.
 
Clinton's strategy reflects the reality that the kind of attacks she underwent at Drexel will only intensify from here on in. The Clinton campaign this week released a new TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire emphasizing the notion that she's a survivor. "These days it seems like every candidate on earth is coming here for you," the voice-over says at the end of the ad. "But which candidate has been there for you all along?"
 
Look for more strikes at Clinton's honesty and consistency from Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in the weeks to come. "For us it's a matter of trust," says David Axelrod, Obama's senior strategist. "We saw a whole debate in which I can't think of one question that she answered forthrightly. One of the issues we have going forward in this race is whether we as a party are going to provide candid, open leadership that can be trusted, after the seven years of this Bush administration." The Obama campaign's latest slogan: "Change we can believe in." 

But Clinton's campaign is honing its counterattack. Her aides say the opposition isn't just attacking Hillary but also impugning her husband—a tack they're confident will turn off most Democrats. "I don't think there's a very large constituency in the Democratic Party for that," says Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson. "I think they're misreading the electorate."
 
As the close combat intensifies, Clinton can take some comfort in the nature of Iowa politics: the state doesn't like its contests to get too bloody. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt tore each other apart in the final phase of the Iowa campaign in 2003 and ultimately damaged their own chances of success by alienating caucus-goers with their shrill attacks. John Edwards finished strong, in large measure because he remained positive and upbeat—a strategy he seems to have abandoned this time around. 

On Tuesday night in Philadelphia the sustained assault on Clinton took its toll. Onstage the candidate lost her easy laugh and resorted to heavy swigs of water between questions. There were cracks in her composure. Offstage Clinton's aides appeared tired and harassed, and they left the spin room well before their rivals. Every attack, of course, was a tacit reminder that she remains the candidate to beat in the Democratic race. But Clinton has owned the debates to date. The Drexel session may have produced only a faint drop of blood in the water. But it's a sure sign that the feeding frenzy has begun.

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