When Will the Slump End?

Mr Talbott is right on on these "lobbyistist" that are ruining our wonderful country..(USA). I saw him on Book TV and what he says about "lobby" people is scary. Talbott says..."$35,000 to have lunch with the President"? Wow...I hope they serve dessert! Where does that money go?

I see even worse...not only a recession but depression! And with inflation yet? Wow...are we in for some rough times. We will look back on these sad dasy as "heaven". I hope I'm wrong, but with foolish leaders (all of em) we are doomed ...throw in war..pick your spot!

when we practice to deceive...Mr. Talbot would luv4 everyone to let his old friends at G/S manage their money via the brilliant idea of giving your money to wall street so that they can invest it with communist dictators in china...pooh pooh on the idea that non ivy league graduates wont throw their money away on rent...oh me oh my...lets see...of the 150 major markets in the us of a, only 50 are in any kind of trouble...run 4 the hills

Yes, we all knew that prices had to come down at some point . . . I can't wait until they return to the 1997 levels, though. At least, that is what I hope. With three degrees, and soon a fourth, I still can't afford housing in my hometown of San Jose, CA. I wish I had known then what I know now.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/11/how-much-cash-is-left-in-home-atm.html

Like Japan, US estate price will fall to the 1986 level ? 1997 level ? or 2004 level ?

Dan, this and other economic issues is why I can't understand why "It's the Economy-Stupid", is not a central theme in this election. It is as if all of the candidates, especially Hillery, appear to be revolted by the subject. But, to the subject at hand, there is no doubt that falsely encouraging loan practices contributed greatly to this problem. I think that the wildly rapid increase in deficit spending during the current administration, was an equal contributor to this fiscally irresponsible attitude.

What an outstanding perspective change Las Vegas. realtor! At the peak of the Hampton Roads Virginia market my home shot up from $145K to $330K. I have watched similar homes in my neighborhood drop from 300 to 290 to 280 to 270 and they are now priced at $259. That is about what they were 3 years ago. I see no stop in sight and lots of inventory. Several friends kept trying to talk me into taking out the equity in my house. . .and they really laughed at my 15 year mortgage telling me I was a fool and I should use other peoples money . . . now, I have only 10 more years and I own my rapidly depreciating house free and clear. As long as I stay above 200K in value I will be happy. I can easily see over the next two years this local market settling in at about $230K. I gnash my teeth when the local paper tpaints a sympathetic portrait of a family that did not read the contracts , or those claiming "I didn't know it was an adjustable rate" . . .yes it is sad anytime a person loses a home and a family must move, but we all need to be responsible shoppers. I pray for those affected, but the very tiny minority that were truly fooled into buying a house with a sham mortgage . . .very tiny indeed. If they exist at all. I wonder how many folks with rough credit got into a great house because a mortgage company took a chance on them, and they are paying their bills, restoring their credit . . . one month at a time.

Falling back in terms of 1997 prices is oversold. Look at the decline in the dollar since then and inflation - in terms of dollars, our houses should continue selling for much more than they did then.

I'm a licensed Realtor in Las Vegas, Nevada. I agree with this article, but would like to add one more thing - there are always TWO sides to the coin. Instead of all the doom and gloom talk we are hearing in the media, people should be realistic and recognize this market for what it is - an OPPORTUNITY. There will be a lot of happy families who buy homes in the next couple years that they previously could not afford. And now, they'll be able to afford those homes because the PRICES are what have changed, while the loan packages they'll be getting from lenders will allow for smarter purchases and greatly reduced risk later on. Like an earlier poster said, people were buying $500,000 homes with $50,000 incomes with these crazy loan packages. Now, they'll be buying similar homes for as little as $300,000, with loans that come with a 30-year fixed rate. Those buyers WIN BIG. Investors are already catching on to this and buying up the best deals, but rest assured there will be plenty more to come as homeowners with bad ARM loans see their reset dates looming. There will be many more people who don't want to sell that are forced too because of rising payments, and a negative equity that will prevent them from refinancing.

Renters, investors, second home buyers, and those looking to upgrade should be jumping into this market and making it work to their advantage. Meanwhile, those in short sale/negative equity positions who DON'T need to sell right now should stay put where possible and wait for things to come back up.

Robert Beaudette
www.RobertSellsLasVegas.com

I keep reading this sob-stories about young couples who buy $500,000 houses on $50,000 income. Are you that stupid? Do you not read what you sign? Did you actually think that working as the night manager of a drugstore would get you a half-million dollar house and two cars? Come on, people,..get real!

I'm tired of hearing about people who bought way out of their depth and are now in trouble...tough sh*t!, These are the idiots who spend two weeks in the Bahamas, while the rest of us stay home and pay out bills, so I don't feel a bit sorry for them. I feel sorry for working families who got caught up in this mess, but, my God, don't you people read what you sign?...weren't you the least bit curious about the fact that you were suddenly able to afford a $500,000 home on a $50,000 income?...Get real!

Construction permits have been declining since 2005.
We are growing at a rate of .9% per year. Currently that is 2.8 million people per year entering our economy.
Oil, cement, wood, steel and other construction materials continue to rise in cost as demand in India and China sky rocket.
Home prices in numerous markets across the country are affordable for the average wage and continue to appreciate.
All of the macro-markets you mention (remember real estate is local, e.g. in Worcester Columbus Park is probably much different than Beaver Brook Park and one will hold its value better), have been through appreciation booms or at least long build ups of above average appreciation. However, migration trends have shifted away from these markets to the Southeast and Southwest. Check the appreciation rates in NC, SC, GA, TX and NM. Select MSA's within those states, witness Raleigh, Greenville, Austin, Atlanta, Albuquerque, have maintained positive appreciation, in fact above average appreciation over the past 2 years while the markets you are actually referring to have been through tumultuous times. The problem I have with your approach is that you could be accused of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. What happens when there is a run on a stock?
Rather than lamenting market conditions people should be looking for deals. It is a buyers' market. So, buy! Like the Baron de Rothschild said, "When there is blood in the streets by property." It is times like these when the Warren Buffet's of the world come out to make their deals.
Meanwhile home owners can build equity through social conscience. Google it. There is always demand for communities of caring people, with good schools, high volunteerism, youth programs, parks and generally a high quality of life. So, work on making your neighborhood like that.

Our houses have been so over priced for so long, its not surprising we are heading for a major bust. I am fortunate to live where i didn't have to spend a half a million for my home. I have a nice 4 bedroom house worth (when I bought it) $200,000. Hope its still worth near that when we sell it.

We can all take ownership of our decisions but gosh the banking/credit/home industry should also be considered part of the problem. Sigh, when will regular people learn that deregulation almost always huts us and puts money in rich folks pockets?

dclark68, you will likely have to argue your case for a lower property value with the local tax assessor or review panel. It is done all the time.

dclark68, you will likely have to argue your case with the local tax assessor, or review panel

While the specter of massive foreclosures is frightening, we ought to temper our fear of that prospect with the knowledge that many are losing homes the never owned. "Owners" who effectively financed 100% of their property value had (or believed they had) no more "skin in the game" than renters. Irresponsible borrowing (and lending) have left us with whole neighborhoods which have turned out to be no more than high class tenemants.l;