When Will the Slump End?

Okay,

The housing market is in a tumble so my question is this.

We are paying yearly personal property taxes on an over inflated house so does that mean that those numbers will be adjusted accordingly, or will the Govt continue to collect on the over inlfated value of the houses.

Just a little food for thought!

If houses are undervalued does that mean our personal property taxes will be adjusted as well? I mean we are paying over the estimated value then each year so will they decline as the housing market declines.

Just a little food for thought?

Land, they ain't making any more of it. As a real estate attorney who has been loudly shouting "the sky is falling" myself for over three years (and telling clients NOT to buy), I nevertheless don't agree that the final adjustment in real estate prices will be as severe as the author suggests. We are in the throes of a major correction stemming from a sick and corrupt system of lending and phony appraisal, but the underlying market forces driving long term demand are still strong. When you combine the factors of continuing immigration and population growth and stabilization of our inner cities (which increases suburban home ownership) the true values are skewed upward, way beyond any adjustment for simple inflation. Here "on the ground", absent a major terrorist event which destroys consumer confidence, it looks like this correction will top out at 15% as a nationwide average at the end of three years, and then start a slow recovery- slow because we will be spooked by this debacle for a long time.

I think that KeyLimePie is on the money, but I would like to hear Mr. Talbott's confirmation that his prognostication was based on home values adjusted for inflation.

The mortgage slump, and when it will end, is really simpler than the press makes it out to be. When housing prices are more aligned with household income, prices will stabilize. The major adjustment that needs to happen is being postponed by sellers who haven't reconciled the fact the home they are trying to sell is overvalued. It's not so much that buyers are unwilling to pay the market price, but are unable to do it without commiting to debt that is disproportionate to their income. Case-in-point: My personal income is roughly 3x the average household (2 earner) income in the Phoenix area, and I can't afford to buy a house. If I can't afford it, how is the average family supposed to do it?
Someone is going to take a hit in order for the market to correct. Those homeowners who bought too much house, or borrowed against inflated values are now going to be liable for their own poor decisions. For those who own a home, without being in over their head, the market correction should be relatively painless.

The mortgage slump, and when it will end, is really simpler than the press makes it out to be. When housing prices are more aligned with household income, prices will stabilize. The major adjustment that needs to happen is being postponed by sellers who haven't reconciled the fact the home they are trying to sell is overvalued. It's not so much that buyers are unwilling to pay the market price, but are unable to do it without commiting to debt that is disproportionate to their income. Case-in-point: My personal income is roughly 3x the average household (2 earner) income in the Phoenix area, and I can't afford to buy a house. If I can't afford it, how is the average family supposed to do it?
Someone is going to take a hit in order for the market to correct. Those homeowners who bought too much house, or borrowed against inflated values are now going to be liable for their own poor decisions. For those who own a home, without being in over their head, the market correction should be relatively painless.

The mortgage slump, and when it will end, is really simpler than the press makes it out to be. When housing prices are more aligned with household income, prices will stabilize. The major adjustment that needs to happen is being postponed by sellers who haven't reconciled the fact the home they are trying to sell is overvalued. It's not so much that buyers are unwilling to pay the market price, but are unable to do it without commiting to debt that is disproportionate to their income. Case-in-point: My personal income is roughly 3x the average household (2 earner) income in the Phoenix area, and I can't afford to buy a house. If I can't afford it, how is the average family supposed to do it?
Someone is going to take a hit in order for the market to correct. Those homeowners who bought too much house, or borrowed against inflated values are now going to be liable for their own poor decisions. For those who own a home, without being in over their head, the market correction should be relatively painless.

40-50% declines do seem a bit too steep, but clearly Mr. Talbott has a solid grasp on what lending and other economic factors have an impact on the market, and has an intuitive sense of bellwether indicators that most experts chose to ignore. So until he's proven wrong, I suppose we should all brace for the worst.

This is a bit of an aside, but if the realtor fees were not a factor, people would have an easier way of unloading properties they can't afford. I have a friend in Seattle using http://www.choicea.com which seems like an improved Craigslist to market her property. When is the Internet going to turn real estate on its ear?