Five Ways to Survive the Housing Slump

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  • Posted By: copycat @ 11/19/2007 3:37:27 AM

    This article was an interesting read, but basically had a dire outlook on the real estate nightmare. The only reason I am writing now is to comment to all the people who are attacking those who find themselves in over their heads. My husband and I were the victims of predatory lending. We bought our house in the peak of the bubble in Miami, Florida... one of the highest priced markets. Why did we buy? Because renting was just as expensive as a mortgage payment... and unfortunately by the time we had enough money (as recent college grads) to buy the bubble was about to burst. We did not "buy more than we can afford", and go for a huge mansion. We bought a small single family house... and one of the cheapest we could find at the time in the city (without living in a dangerous neighborhood.) If we wanted to own a house... we had no choice. During that time if you even went to see an open house you were bombarded with freakish experiences. Literally buyers were signing contracts on the hood of their realtors cars. If you didn't snatch up your home, someone else was going to get it. You had to act fast. No time to stop and think.

  • Posted By: gusgus @ 11/19/2007 3:00:58 AM

    It is interesting that the National Association of Realtors has started an ad campaign to encourage people to buy homes now, instead of postponing it for later. The only reason they would do that is because they are hurting. Its all propaganda to get would be home buyers that are holding off for prices to continue to drop into a panic that they must buy now. Prices are dropping and it is very possible that they will drop to 1997 levels. So go ahead and buy now, I'll be moving in next door to you in a year for $100,000 less.

  • Posted By: gusgus @ 11/19/2007 3:00:04 AM

    It is interesting that the National Association of Realtors has started an ad campaign to encourage people to buy homes now, instead of postponing it for later. The only reason they would do that is because they are hurting. Its all propaganda to get would be home buyers that are holding off for prices to continue to drop into a panic that they must buy now. Prices are dropping and it is very possible that they will drop to 1997 levels. So go ahead and buy now, I'll be moving in next door to you in a year for $100,000 less.

  • Posted By: inet49 @ 11/19/2007 2:35:41 AM

    I'm going to make improvements in my home for both comfort and status regardless of pay back because it is cheaper than buying a new home. I bought my home in 1997 and it is worth 50% more than that now even at bargain basement prices. I'm not convinced the information provided is practical or correct.. John Talbott is definately a bear on housing, sorry John I guess the bull grazes in my back yard not yours.

  • Posted By: toddf72 @ 11/19/2007 2:19:38 AM

    That last comment from toddf72 is brilliant. That is exactly what I have been telling my co-workers. I suspect rent is up in many places all over the country. If rent is up and people are working then the housing slump will reach a breaking point where it is clearly better to own than rent. Maybe that guy lives in Michigan or somewhere that people are leaving because of a loss of employment.

  • Posted By: Ken11 @ 11/19/2007 1:49:38 AM

    I totally disagree with the notion that the government will help bail out those people who bought houses they could not afford. If I bought a car I could not afford, will the governement help me make by car payments? It is the exact same principle. Why should my tax dollar go to help some one who was too irresponsible to buy a house they could actually afford? If you got one of those shady sub-prime loans so that you could buy a house based on a future income you only hoped to someday have, shame on you.

  • Posted By: lonnyzone @ 11/19/2007 1:47:07 AM

    There was no expert advice in this article. Nice headline.

  • Posted By: fed_is_pro_inflation @ 11/19/2007 12:59:09 AM

    A housing slump driven recession would be good for the U.S. - it would permit the markets to self-correct and re-allocate inefficient resource usage to more profitable sectors of the economy. But in general, if prices are guaranteed always rising with no associated risk, you really have high inflation - many people aren't really "investing" - they're simply keeping even with the core high infation rate

  • Posted By: RhodeIslander @ 11/18/2007 11:34:28 PM

    Who Is John Talbott?
    I know who the NAR is, very reputable actually.

    • Posted By: Out of L.A. @ 11/19/2007 12:54:57 AM

      "I know who the NAR is, very reputable actually."
      You're so hilarious, you must work for the NAR, the organization that claimed there was no housing bubble and that home prices would continue to increase 20% a year for the next 15 years.

  • Posted By: Bevnlou @ 11/19/2007 12:35:55 AM

    I would like to make an offer on Mr. Talbots home for its 1997 value. Actually, let me make it a no brainer. My offer is for it's 1998 value. If he doesn't accept that offer, than he clearly doesn't believe his own theory.

  • Posted By: fed_is_pro_inflation @ 11/19/2007 12:11:29 AM

    to svman - average incomes have been falling in the U.S, but debt is literally skyrocketing, much of it financed by Asian economies - how much longer will they support such debt??

    • Posted By: svman @ 11/19/2007 12:19:35 AM

      average incomes have been falling in the U.S

      agreed!

    • Posted By: svman @ 11/19/2007 12:18:41 AM

      Prices to income was 2 to 3x in 1997 ... as was the case in prior health periods.
      now its nearly 10x. Has income gone up that much over 10 yeas now. No! Fact
      is in California incomes have been down adjusted for inflation.

  • Posted By: dystantme @ 11/18/2007 10:46:06 PM

    Yeah right, Mr. Talbott.. Houses are worth what they are in 1997? 2005 perhaps, but unless you're in the most depressed market in the US, there is no way the houses are worth what they were 10 years ago. I guess the media will print anything that screams doom and gloom about the housing market lately, as the bird flu thing is so last year. Considering there are more areas in the US with price appreciation this fall, than depreciation, then idle speculation (which is really shamelss self-promotion) makes news. And people like Mr. Talbott only add to the woes of the homeowners right now, as 90% of any economic crisis is consumer confidence. Thanks for nothing pal.

    • Posted By: factsplease @ 11/19/2007 12:16:12 AM

      Prices need to adjust so that the median priced home can be a afforded by the median household income of an area. That is just basic economics.
      False incomes (stated incomes) and false interest rates (1%) created false prices that must now adjust to real income and real interest rates.
      A household earning $68,000 must settle for a 375,000 house if they put down 5% and are able to get a 6.25% interest rate.
      In California, as banks feel the pressure of their REO inventory growing, they will have to sell to a population who has a median household income of between $56000-$75000. That means that the median house price needs to come down to about $360,000- $400,000 given todays rates. If rates should go up, before foreclosures peak (they have not) those median prices wil have to be even lower.

      In the last two years of this crazy run, everybody and their mother became a "real estate investor" loose lending guidelines made this possible. Borrowers could lie about their income and 1% neg am loans made it possible for a minimum wage earner to buy a house on a false income and false interest rate that could not be sustained.

  • Posted By: svman @ 11/19/2007 12:07:49 AM

    "Talbott, Chavez and Amenijad"

    Good to see Realtors on this board... baby you dont got no job!

  • Posted By: DiscoFool @ 11/18/2007 11:01:39 PM

    I remember when the stock market was ever soaring and everyone was getting rich. Remember, what goes up must come down. Really, how many people can afford a $500,000.00 starter home? I am wanting to buy a house (Seattle), but i'm waiting because like all real estate in the west coast it is going downward. Right now you would have to be a complete mental defect to purchase a house out west....it's a safe bet you are paying top dollar for a house that will drop by tens of thousands of dollars; however, you still will hold a morgage for the full price prior to the bubble bursting.

    • Posted By: rynepayton @ 11/19/2007 12:07:17 AM

      Drop by tens of thousands? I wish! I got relocated to AZ in 2005 and paid $806,000 for our home. Now it is worth about $590,000. Thank god we have a 30 fixed rate 80% loan. Some of our neighbors that have to relocate are getting killed. They can't come close to selling there homes for what they owe. But there are some good things about a down market we just picked up a house on Maui that there is no way I would have bought 2 years ago. Good luck to all of you having to sell.























      4

    • Posted By: rynepayton @ 11/18/2007 11:56:54 PM

      Drop by tens of thousands? How about hundred of thousands. I got relocated to Az two and a half years ago. I bought my house in 2005 and it was worth $806,000. Thank god I have a 30 year fixed rate 80% loan because now my house is only worth about $590,000. Some of my neighbors are in big trouble because the have to relocate and can't even come close to selling there house for what they owe. Glad I'm not going anywere for a while. There are 12 forclosures out of 94 homes in my sub-division.

  • Posted By: fed_is_pro_inflation @ 11/19/2007 12:06:56 AM

    The Treasury Secretary recently said that economic growth depended on housing prices not falling - what kind of economy is based on preventing free markets from correcting? Clearly official economic growth policy is based on rising prices - also known as inflation... The pro-inflation policy relies on the outsourcing of jobs to China, India, etc. to keep prices (wages) low... so we have falling wages and rising housing prices and rising personal debt....

  • Posted By: svman @ 11/19/2007 12:06:02 AM

    "40% Thats how much Real Estate is Overpriced"

    Actually in SF bay area we are over 400% overprived... that is how much we have incresed in prices...
    what was selling for in 1997 for 200K is now selling for over 800K or more. Has anyones paycheck gone that high considering med. salary is around 73-80K... not much !

    As for the NAR being reputable... oh my lord where do I start... they are a disgrace !

    They are scum bags beyond description...
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_housing_bubble

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_housing_bubble

  • Posted By: Music Man @ 11/18/2007 11:56:39 PM

    The Housing Slump.
    You ain't seen nothin' yet.
    B-B-B- Baby, you just ain't seen nothin' yet.
    Here's something that you're never gonna forget. Bachman-Turner Overdrive

  • Posted By: LAinvestor @ 11/18/2007 11:49:53 PM

    to obtain a real estate licence is extremly easy, anyone of you can get the license and save a lot for your next purchase.
    if u want to buy a house, buy it next year, should be another 5 - 10% drop

  • Posted By: lonnyzone @ 11/18/2007 11:40:49 PM

    Everyone stop picking on Talbott, Chavez and Amenijad... They are just expressing their opinion.

  • Posted By: evctoluco @ 11/14/2007 10:56:21 PM

    I think that not only lenders are guilty of this situation but also Real Estate Agents who took advantage of people and did't explain the terms and conditions of their Morgage loans especially adjustable rates and negative amortizations these are very risky loans. people just focused on the benefit of having a confortable payment, another thing that led to this problem was that agencies such as NAR, CAR, etc didn't take any action to enforce what its the most important regulation ( The code of ethics) now everybody is in the same boat and is not time to blame people but to find a solution. Lenders should start negociating the loans before people start making late payments and losing their homes I think that the economy and the people would benefit if we can find a solution anytime soon

    • Posted By: RSanden @ 11/18/2007 11:39:20 PM

      As a Realtor, I want to let you know that they teach and tell us that the loan isnt our responsibility to explain to the buyer! Its Buyer Beware! I on the otherhand make it a point to know my clients financing before I have them sign a contract, because I dont want them to loose the house in 6 months or a year. I have actually lost clients because I have refused to write offers for them because of their loans. Yes I did loans for a while and have over 20+ years in Accounting and Finance as my background. I know what will work on certain budgets and what wont! If I wouldn't put my own family in that loan why would I do that to your family??? I take my Rule of Ethics very seriously! There have been many people go into the finance and real estate market over the last 5 years for a fast buck. They are now gone because the easy money inst there. Know who your working with and understand your loan, if your lender cant explain something clearly....then think about a second opionion!! You would if it were a medical decision....anything financial should be considered just as important.
      I truly care if my families can afford a home. While many have gone to someone else to buy a home, and are now in trouble....I know it wasnt because of me trying to make a fast commission. What is sad that they call me to help them, and for many I cant other then suggest a short sale or bankruptcy!
      CAR and NAR have a lot of political input to the Goverment and Fed Reserve...but hey dont always listen to us anymore then some of our clients have. We DO NOT control the rules of real estate, the government does! Thankfully new laws are being put in place, a bit too late however, but they will make sure that anyone that sells you a loan is licensed by the DRE of your local state. That wasnt the case in the past.
      Know who your working with, and like a doctors prognosis...get a second opinion anytime you think something is just too good to be true, or just too easy!!
      Always check your states DRE website for licensees to see if the person your working with is licensed...if they are not....run, dont walk out of their office!! Oh Yea, and take all your personal information with you!

    • Posted By: tenochtitlan98 @ 11/18/2007 10:56:27 PM

      I disagree with your comment because the ultimate responsibility falls with the individual buying the property and not with the Real Estate agents nor the banks. Only adults are allowed to buy houses without the consent of a parent or legal guardian, therefore it is assumed they would know what to do. I have bought 4 properties in the past 7 years, three of them as investments, the lowest being priced at under $200K and the highest at almost $750K, and I never had any problem(s) with the bank or the financing. My wife and I are teachers, so we don't make lots of money, but we manage our money carefully and we educate ourselves in matters of purchasing Real Estate and the different financing opportunities available. I could never and would never blame someone else for my own ignorance. What right would I have for doing that? The problem with a lot of people who are now in trouble is that they didn't do their homework before jumping in the deep end, and they are drowning because they found out it was very tiring to swim against the current. It's a sad situation, but the only people to blame are the buyers who went above their heads purchasing properties they could not pay. It's a lesson learned.

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