Guarding Pakistan’s Nukes

In part because of those steps, U.S. fears that Pakistan's nukes could fall into extremists' hands abated, according to Xenia Dormandy, former National Security Council director for South Asia affairs under President Bush. The fear that Al Qaeda might gain access to a Pakistani bomb "was a big concern after September 11," she said. "But in the last two to three years, our level of confidence over Pakistan's nuclear weapons has grown."

The view of the U.S. intelligence community—as explained by two U.S. officials who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information—is that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal appears to be under the firm control of special nuclear security units of the Pakistani military. These units are led by senior officers regarded as trustworthy by both Musharraf and the U.S. government.

It is "always a concern" that something unexpected could happen, given the current disorder in Pakistan, said one Bush official. But at present, said the official, there is "no indication" that any of Pakistan's atomic weapons or related nuclear materials are in any jeopardy of falling into the wrong hands. "There are no alarm bells ringing" at present in Washington among counterterrorism or nuclear security experts inside the U.S. government, the official acknowledged—though he conceded that the longer Pakistan's political turmoil continues, the greater the risk of a possible compromise of Pakistan's nuclear complex by Islamist sympathizers or other government insiders.

Even if the current mess intensifies, says Michael Krepon, a Pakistan expert affiliated with the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, the country is a very long way from a nuclear crisis. Krepon notes that two other nuclear-equipped states have suffered serious political upheavals in the past—China during the cultural revolution and the Soviet Union during its collapse—and neither of their nuclear arsenals was compromised. "The situation in Pakistan is bad, but it doesn't begin to approach these convulsions," Krepon says. "There's a lot to worry about in Pakistan before worrying about the country's nuclear arsenal."

Krepon and Leonard Spector, a former senior nuclear-nonproliferation official for the U.S. Energy Department during the Clinton administration, noted that Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the facilities that manufacture and store them are under the control of a special nuclear-safety branch of the military high command called the Strategic Plans Division. According to U.S. estimates, this division has as many as 8,000 to 10,000 troops assigned to nuclear-related duties. Within that force, says Matthew Bunn, a nonproliferation expert at Harvard, is a special Nuclear Security Division with at least 1,000 officers.

Heading the Strategic Plans division is Khalid Kidwai, a lieutenant general in Pakistan's army who is highly regarded by U.S. officials. Spector, the former Clinton advisor, described Kidwai as being "at the top of his game." Last year, according to U.S. experts, Kidwai made a tour of the United States during which he spoke to officials about Pakistan's nuclear security measures.