War and Peacemakers

Some Arab diplomatic sources say talks have taken place quietly between Livni and intermediaries for the Saudis. Is that true? "No," said Saud. "Nor are we planning to do that." If the Israelis do not want peace, he suggested, it's not up to the Saudis to convince them.

Of course, the Israelis might well doubt that the Saudis can deliver the whole Arab world, regardless of the proclamations at Arab summits. (Libyan dictator Muammar Kaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, told me last summer there was no way his father would fall into line.)

"Not only will the Arab countries go along, but the Islamic countries will go along too, with the Arab peace plan," Saud insisted.

"Do you think the Iranians will go along with that peace plan?" I asked.

"Well, the Iranians are a special case," said Saud, smiling ruefully and shaking his head.

Then, seriously: "They cannot prevent peace if the Israelis agree, nor will they change the situation if peace is made."

The problem is that nothing the Saudis say publicly comes close to explaining why the Iranians would back off. What threats and what promises are at play? Riyadh will stand up to Tehran—but how? At times the Saudis use the background threat of an American attack on Iran in their rhetoric while flatly opposing an actual military operation.

"Iran is a major country of the region, and they have a role to play in the stability of the region—which we hope they will play," said Saud. "They can either play that role or be a country that brings violence and destruction to our region, and we hope they avoid that. We talk to them as openly as we talk to anybody: we tell them of our anxiety, our fear of where they are going [with nuclear enrichment], and they continue to assure us that they are not going in the wrong direction in this regard. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt. We are neighbors. They are not going to move and we are not going to move. We have to reach accommodation. We hope they will also play a positive role in preventing the differences between the Sunnis and Shiites which are growing in Iraq."

"Well, yes," I said, perhaps a little impatient myself. "I know you hope all these things, but if I were, oh, Vice President Dick Cheney, I would say, 'Yeah, that's what you hope for, but none of that is happening. The Iranians are getting worse on every front: they are more aggressive on uranium enrichment; they are more aggressive in trying to seize regional leadership. They are more aggressive in supporting the Shiite fundamentalists in Iraq and—'"

"We stand firmly against all this," said the prince.

"But do you see any signs of encouragement?"

"We see that when we talk to them seriously they listen. And in terms of interfering in Arab affairs, all the Arab countries are disturbed about it, and [the Iranians] have to think twice before they continue on these lines."

"Do you see any signs that they are thinking twice?"

"We just had a meeting about Iraq [in Istanbul with Iraq's neighbors] in which this issue of involvement of Iran in Iraq was brought to the fore, and we told them that this is unacceptable, that they must think before they jump into something that will bring them into confrontation with all the Arab world … And yet they came with a proposal for Iraq that would replace the forces of the coalition with Iraqi people who were kicked out of Iraq by Saddam Hussein. [The Iranians] said they had 4 million of them that they were willing to send back to Iraq. Of course, this was refused outright."

Not exactly realistic, I suggested.

"But very antagonistic," said the prince.

"So if they continue to be antagonistic what do you think will happen?"

"The Arab countries will defend themselves."

"And do you think the Americans and the Israelis will defend their interests by attacking Iran?"

"I don't know if their interests would be in attacking Iran."

"But they may think so."

"We think the way to do it is through the frank talk that we have with Iran to show that their interest is not in antagonistic positions," said the prince.

"And if that fails?"