Pakistan’s Pinstripe Revolution

There is a tendency in the United States to see what is happening in Pakistan as a grand morality play: Musharraf is evil, the Army must return to its barracks, the politicians are angels. Or, for some people, the opposite is true. In fact, as in so many other places, Pakistani reality is awash in grays. The task for the United States and other friends of Pakistan is to guide it on a path that keeps the country stable and the jihadis at bay, pushes the political system toward greater legitimacy and openness, and keeps the key forces within the society working together. This means that the military and the major political parties must be drawn together to help govern the country. If they become unalterably opposed to one another, Pakistan will once again crumble.

Periods of transition are never placid. We now look at South Korea, Taiwan and Chile and applaud their shift toward greater democratic rule in the 1980s. But at the time the changes they underwent were messy. If Pakistan's transition is worked through carefully, keeping all mainstream forces in society invested in its future, the outcome could be greater stability and security. Badly managed, Pakistan will lapse once more into misrule, corruption and extremism. Either way, Pakistan eventually had to move back toward civilian rule, to return to politics. That time, whether Musharraf realizes it or not, is now.

With Ron Moreau in Islamabad

© 2007