Iraq: With Friends Like These ...

Bush's new public coolness toward Maliki is at least partly an attempt to show skeptical Republicans that he's not going into this blindly. For his part, Maliki cannot afford to look as though he's kowtowing to Washington when Sunni insurgents continue to massacre his fellow Shiites. He hasn't publicly supported Bush's "surge" plan, and responded to questions about Rice's "borrowed time" remark by saying the secretary had given a "morale boost" to terrorists.

On the other hand, to establish his bona fides with Bush, Maliki emphasized to reporters in Baghdad last week that Iraqi forces had detained some 400 members of Sadr's militia in recent months. Still, U.S. officials were unnerved two weeks ago when Maliki named an obscure Shiite general from Iraq's south, Lt. Gen. Aboud Qanbar, as the new commander of Iraqi forces in Baghdad. A U.S. official who is privy to Iraq intelligence but would discuss sensitive material only anonymously noted that there were many other officers whom Maliki could have chosen for the job who would have been less polarizing to Sunnis.

The U.S. military is now so suspicious of Maliki that on Friday, when U.S. forces arrested Sadr's media director in Baghdad, Sheik Abdul Hadi Darraji, the prime minister's office wasn't even informed of the raid. Darraji has been linked to death-squad killings of Sunnis in Baghdad. Some Iraqi politicians who are also leery of Maliki say it was wise of the Americans to keep him out of the loop. "If Maliki had been told, [the arrest] wouldn't have happened," says Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of Parliament. "Maliki would not agree to this." Indeed Maliki has intervened several times in recent months to secure the release of Sadr supporters.

Why has Bush seemingly staked his legacy on this contradictory figure? At one time the bond seemed deeply personal. At their last face-to-face meeting, in Jordan in November, Bush called the Iraqi prime minister "the right guy for Iraq." His judgment was based partly on Bush's respect for Maliki's courage under fire. "He's been in power for six months, and I've been able to watch a leader emerge," the president told reporters. At the same time, White House officials also revealed they had eavesdropped on Maliki's private conversations to make sure the Iraqi prime minister was telling his supporters the same thing he was telling U.S. officials. They were reassured that he was, for the most part--a marked contrast to Jaafari.

According to sources knowledgeable about the discussions, departing U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad has also supported Maliki's line on Sadr--that his ties to the cleric give him a better chance than anyone of persuading Sadr to work within the political system. But the biggest reason to trust Maliki may simply be that Washington has no other choice. Hakim's SCIRI is the single largest party in Parliament and would likely provide the next prime minister if Maliki were voted out. But U.S. officials note that the first Shiite death squads to appear on the scene in 2005 had shadowy links to the Ministry of Interior, which is dominated by Hakim's party. There is no talk of replacing Maliki with a military strongman--something that would be virulently opposed not only by Iraqis but also, according to the NEWSWEEK Poll, by 83 percent of Americans. Maliki "is a reasonably bad choice among a set of really bad options," says one former senior U.S. official who spoke anonymously because he maintains close ties to the White House.

Ironically, American generals may be more willing to give Maliki time than the politicians back in Washington. Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, the incoming commander of multinational forces in Iraq, understands that the main point of the surge is to provide just enough security on the streets of Baghdad. Then, say Defense officials speaking anonymously because they are not authorized to discuss Petraeus's thinking, Maliki can theoretically persuade Sadr to stand down his militia. If that succeeds, then the frightened Sunni population might just be persuaded to part ways with insurgents. While Mahdi militia commanders warn they will retaliate if attacked by the Americans, for now the movement's political leaders are urging patience. "We have instructions from Sayeed Moqtada to stay calm so that the Sadr followers aren't dragged into this confrontation," Baha al-Araji, a senior Sadr leader and member of the National Assembly, told NEWSWEEK.