Quantcast
 
 
 
Top Story
Group Lobbies for Reform of Funeral Industry
My Journey to the Top
 
 
Latest News
Focus on elk as disease persists near Yellowstone
 
 
expand

Less (Information) Is More

According to a new book, most people think too much before they make important decisions.

By Wray Herbert | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Nov 20, 2007 | Updated: 4:13  p.m. ET Nov 20, 2007

« Return to Article

 
Discuss
 
Member Comments
  • Posted By: Alpha @ 11/30/2007 12:29:08 AM

    Comment: Gut feelings aren't really "quick and dirty". They are the result of our pre-cognitive lowewr brain structures processing massive amounts of information and sending signals to our conscious minds to eliminate choices incongruent with our prior learning or desires. Neuroscientist A. Damasio calls them "somatic markers". The Franklin method is a very left-brain approach. 1. Left brain just cannot process the amount of information available to the lower brain structures 2. When you eliminate items from the pro/con list, you are using somatic markers anyway. Conclusion: we should not throw out the left brain but train it to be tuned into the non-cognitive input. Then you get the best of both worlds.

  • Posted By: DMVL @ 11/28/2007 10:07:41 PM

    Comment: Snap decisions probably work for shopping, i.e., check Consumer Reports if you are buying electronics and just go with their "best buy" or what color to paint your walls. However, you might want to take a bit more time to consider your situation if it involves a medical decision, a new job, or a dropping a load of money on a house or car. Still, you need to consider how much time and information really is necessary. At some point you just have to make a decision and live with it.

  • Posted By: ad123 @ 11/28/2007 10:11:51 AM

    Comment: In the medical example, all considerations are struck out as equally irrelevant except one--how well the physicians listen--and the decision is made on that basis. In other words, they are employing the "moral algebra" of Benjamin Franklin, which this experiment is somehow supposed to call into question. Likewise, the parents' consideration of the school problem.

  • Posted By: mscarr1 @ 11/27/2007 8:21:24 PM

    Comment: In theory it may work - but if you get humans who have had either a plethora of bad life experiences or a plethora of good life experiences - their gut reactions may be either too optimistic or too pessimistic to be reliable. Balance - some application of moral logic and some gut is probably best.

  • Posted By: loislane @ 11/27/2007 5:48:42 PM

    Comment: The military reference was the best comparison of how crucial and effective trusting your gut can be. As a woman in the dating process, it definitely save alot of time. Blink by Malcom Gladwell was a excellent book on this. I think they refered to it as splicing; making split second decisions.

    The difference I see in these two is that with splicing it's an immediate reaction, but Gigeranzer seems to be promoting still being analytical, but with fewer factors. But it seems to me that you still have to think of all the options to figure out which ones are important and which ones aren't. Meaning, you still have to collect the same amount of data, filter out what you don't need, then make the decision based on what's left... so is that really trusting your gut?

  • Posted By: alphasun @ 11/27/2007 9:19:52 AM

    Comment: If I may be allowed another 2cs' worth despite my double post earlier, I would like to question the use of the word heuristics to describe the rapid "satisficing" decision-making process. Heuristics to me means a searching and analytic process that should only end when the truth has been approached as closely as possible -- it implies the use of logic and evidence, not some cognitive triage.
    Also, I can well imaginre the conseqwuences of earnest attemnpts to train muilitary officers and MBA students in this sort of decision making. How to avoid secondary delay caused by trying to decide which factors to sacrifice etc....

  • Posted By: sepehr @ 11/27/2007 8:31:08 AM

    Comment: I liked this article as it can really help when making tough decisions; Go for the most important piece of information or factor.... Ok, fine! But the case of asthmatic child is not a good example at all and has ruined the artcile. The most important factor in the example is to save the child and go to the doctor 20 minute away.

  • Posted By: alphasun @ 11/27/2007 6:38:15 AM

    Comment: America has a healthy ferment of discussion in which such nostrums surface from time to time. In this case I am glad to see that "gut feeling" does not relate to anti-intellectual concepts of the kind the fascists used to promote.
    There seems to be strong anectdotal evidsence of our ability to assess problems automatically, e.g. the oft-recounted experience of waking up to find that one has solved a knotty problem in one's sleep. Like my father, a trained scientists and physician, I am fond of Louis Pasteur's dictum "chance favours the prepared mind". I found the medical example in this article disturbing. The good listener could easily be the weaker diagnostician, although a hospital might be a better bet for other reasons. But snap decisions may be better in some circumstances, e.g. when pursued by a bear.

  • Posted By: alphasun @ 11/27/2007 6:35:45 AM

    Comment: America has a healthy ferment of discussion in which such nostrums surface from time to time. In this case I am glad to see that "gut feeling" does not relate to anti-intellectual concepts of the kind the fascists used to promote.
    There seems to be strong anectdotal evidsence of our ability to assess problems automatically, e.g. the oft-recounted experience of waking up to find that one has solved a knotty problem in one's sleep. Like my father, a trained scientists and physician, I am fond of Louis Pasteur's dictum "chance favours the prepared mind". I found the medical example in this article disturbing. The good listener could easily be the weaker diagnostitician, although a hospital might be a better bet for other reasons. But snap decisions may be better in some circumstances, e.g. when pursued by a bear.

  • Posted By: tantaco @ 11/27/2007 2:25:34 AM

    Comment: A longer thought out decision is best, do you buy a car the moment you see it, do you choose your spouse in the same hasty manner? No.

  • Posted By: mslotdot @ 11/26/2007 11:33:25 PM

    Comment: i agree glowingluma...there are those who are impulsive/reactive. Those who cannot consistantly make good decisions. For instance, those with the disease of addiction run off of "feelings/impulse". This is not a good method for decision making for those who fall into that category. In those cases, the good old fashion method of the pros and cons list works best.

  • Posted By: simonfrog @ 11/26/2007 10:55:20 PM

    Comment: Okay, our zealous friend moosetracks did kind of go overboard, but have you heard what he is saying? After reading the article, I found it refreshing to have some input to remind me of times when I have had hard choices in life that could not be made on two half sheets of paper, and trusting that gut instinct on the fly just left me uncomfortable, I prayed on these matters and the decision followed... do not discard the content because of the method of delivery.
    Simon

  • Posted By: bukolworm @ 11/26/2007 7:54:14 PM

    Comment: please forgive me moosetracks but i can't help but notice some words in caps. darwin's theory of evolution. honestly, between the bible and the evidence-based theory of evolution, i'd find evolution more credible and more appealing to the modern brain. it's not a religion because people do not pay money and land to spread the theory. evolutionists do not pay and pray to evolution either to save them from eternal damnation.

  • Posted By: bukolworm @ 11/26/2007 7:47:57 PM

    Comment: moosetracks: the spiritual disregarded? err. it's because of the nature of the research. it's actually based on statistics and science. in contrast to what you suggested that science becomes more advanced, it actually lessens the 'gap' between what we know and what we do not know. science now can explain a lot of phenomena everyday that our ancestors once credited on on fairies, on magical creatures, on supernatural entities and some supercreator.

  • Posted By: Moosetracks @ 11/26/2007 7:19:55 PM

    Comment: Why is the spiritual always disregarded? Hueristics makes a strong case for a higher power such as the Holy Spirit that can give us wisdom beyond our circumstances and understanding. Why do we always have to claim things we don't understand evolved over eons? As science becomes more advanced, we're discovering more data that suggests a creator and less that supports the THEORY and RELIGION of Darwinism.

    • Posted By: dychejs @ 11/26/2007 22:49:08

      Comment: Dear Moosetracks, I am afraid you do not know what you speak. I am sure you are a good person but you do not understand science.

  • Posted By: tony.rizzo@pdinstitute.com @ 11/26/2007 7:11:52 PM

    Comment: The author's simple approach to decision-making sounds effective, but it is dangerous. There are many instances where two or three factors interact and together yield an effect that can't be detected by considering individual factors. Such interaction-effects all too often are highly counterintuitive.

    The various fields of engineering provide numerous examples of this. Take, for example, the decision to extend the range of an aircraft. The simplistic decision might be to build bigger fuel tanks into the existing airframe. However, the larger tanks and the extra fuel add appreciable weight. Therefore, the structural design of the airframe needs to be reinforced. This brings additional weight, which along with the extra fuel-weight causes the aircraft to require a larger wing-area, bringing even more weight and greater drag, causing the aircraft to burn fuel faster, and shortening its effective range.

    Modern corporations provide yet another example where the author's simplistic approach to decision-making already is creating immeasurable waste. The seat-of-the-pants solution that nearly all managers and executives employ, when they feel the need to speed up the flow of projects through their companies, is to push the companies' resources by forcing tighter due-dates upon the projects. Ironically, this is the worst possible approach, because it forces widespread multitasking to occur. The multitasking, in turn, cripples the flow of projects rather than speeding it up. The highly counterintuitive solution, which the author's simplistic followers could not possibly embrace, is to cause the effective removal of projects by spacing the due-dates further apart along the timeline.

    Despite the author's self-congratulatory tone and unfounded inferences, there is no substitute for knowing how things work.

    Tony Rizzo
    President
    Product Development Institute
    +1 908 264 8520 desk
    +1 908 230 5348 mobile

  • Posted By: savealife @ 11/26/2007 7:06:04 PM

    Comment: Good grief! Doesn't anyone care whether the kid with asthma lives or dies? As a 911 person these kind of gut decisions kill people ! I say take the doc who is closer even if he has no bedside manners! The medicine does not care, it will work even if the doctor does not give a hoot! Time saves lives! Better yet call an ambulance!. Parents do not always make good decisions in the heat of a crisis, that is why 911 was invented.

  • Posted By: Trust-in-yourself @ 11/26/2007 6:33:41 PM

    Comment: Always go with your gut feeling.... It's the universe answering the question you haven't even asked yet.
    And the universe is on your side....

  • Posted By: Trust-in-yourself @ 11/26/2007 6:29:12 PM

    Comment: Tammy.... 38, 48 ,108 If you are truly in love, you will move heaven and earth to be with someone...
    38 is still young.... Don't settle.... 5 days after the wedding... Yes, Mr. Right will show up...
    Picture in your mind exactly what you want in a man... ht...wt...eye color...hair color... everything
    Think of only these traits.... Do it every AM and PM.... he will show up... Promise

  • Posted By: goodapples @ 11/26/2007 6:22:52 PM

    Comment: Tammy-- I say do it! He's a great guy, you are running out of time to get pg. "In love" comes and goes in any relationship.

  • Posted By: goodapples @ 11/26/2007 6:21:58 PM

    Comment: Tammy,
    at 38 you are quickly runnning out of time to get pg. Marry him-- he's a great guy and you want children. That's hard to find. "In love" does not last anyway.

    • Posted By: wbheath @ 11/26/2007 18:30:13

      Comment: you are a fool and should not be listened to.

  • Posted By: poleshift2012 @ 11/26/2007 6:17:35 PM

    Comment: Well, as the years go on, Its hard enough to live with someone that you're madly in love with. How hard do you think it would be to spend the rest of you life with someone your not.?

  • Posted By: wbheath @ 11/26/2007 6:17:22 PM

    Comment: Tammybr - Don't do it. If any part of you says no then the answer is no. The world is full of people who didn't listen to that little voice that said no and they are now divorced. Don't be another one of them. Have the courage to wait for someone better suited for you and you will be rewarded later. If you listen to your fears now and and settle, and you will be unhappy in the long run.

  • Posted By: naticatty @ 11/26/2007 6:17:06 PM

    Comment: Hi, that was interesting and I think the way Franklin did teach his nephew was kind of confusing. You should always listen to your heart, your guts. If you think you shouldn't stay somewhere, run! If you feel that person is bad, stay away from them.

    For the lady below me TAMMYB:

    Hey, if you don't love him, leave him. Let him find somebody whom will love him, and look for somebody whom will love you. You are 38, that's not old, why American women always think that they are old??? It doesn't make sense!!
    You can find somebody who you'll love! If you marry him, everything will sucK: life with him, vacation, sex (it will be only to have the child you want to) and also, that child will grown up around parents whom don't love 'll each other.... kids feel those things... it's not good. Later he'll be cheating on you, or you will end up divorcing... etc etc etc... You aren't in love and you only want him because you think you can't find somebody better and wants to have kids. Don't be selfish. Let him go and look for somebody else. Good luck!

  • Posted By: avidreader18 @ 11/26/2007 6:13:39 PM

    Comment: go with your gut feeling always, why?, because its based on years of evolution, sometimes it might be wrong but it will never work against your best interest, it can't, it does not have somebody 's else agenda, only yours,its your survival instinct talking to you

  • Posted By: AlinaAdolphus @ 11/26/2007 6:01:06 PM

    Comment: Wow, finally, a scientific justification for my seat-of-the-pants style of decision making. I recently left my job on a spur of the moment decision, literally in the parking lot before my shift started, based on one salient piece of information: the assistant manager with the poorest people-skills, worst reputation for bullying and intimidating employees, and biggest undeserved ego was about to be promoted. It's nice to know that I wasn't just being foolish but was actually listening to my instincts tell me that this was a bad situation about to get worse. I have never been an analytical person so it's nice to know that I can rely on my instincts and not wind up with the wrong decision.

    • Posted By: Deusexmachina @ 11/27/2007 10:32:35

      Comment: I don't know if there's a set scientific precedent here, but it sounds as if your feelings and your thinking were congruent on this issue. You don't specify any financial blowback from leaving your job, but surely you thought about it before actually leaving. I think 'gut' feelings are just another way of thinking, just not as ratiocinating.

  • Posted By: mynutritionist @ 11/26/2007 5:43:02 PM

    Comment: A good recommendation I've used in life is this:
    - Treat big issues with a measure of lightness in order to persevere through the challenge without desperation, which is the enemy of good decision making.
    - Treat small issues intensely to respect the idiosyncracies of others and avoid a "death of a thousand cuts"

  • Posted By: Archangel63 @ 11/26/2007 5:37:58 PM

    Comment: Being an analytical thinker, I find this approach to decision-making rather informative and refreshing. However, whether or not satisficing can work in all areas of decision-making is questionable. There are times at which even I go with my intuitions on certain subjects, but I personally do not believe that intuition can be the new catch-all for such things. Most businesses, educational and religious institutions have to set priorities, and while it is partially based on emotionsand personal feelings, certain decisions will yield different customers/followers, profits and overall results. Analysis of any and all kinds will always fit into the equation, but I will give credit to the idea of adding intuition and quick thinking to the moral algebra process.

  • Posted By: miladjd @ 11/26/2007 5:35:57 PM

    Comment: Reading such opinions is very boring because everyday we hear different types of the ways of the life and finally we are confused to choose the way of our life!!!
    Milad J D from Iran country

  • Posted By: miladjd @ 11/26/2007 5:34:59 PM

    Comment: Reading such opinions is very boring because everyday we hear different types of the ways of the life and finally we are confused to choose the way of our life!!!
    Milad Jamshid Dezfuli from Iran country

  • Posted By: writingprincess @ 11/26/2007 5:29:19 PM

    Comment: Being naturally intuitive it amazes me how paralyzing people get when trying to make decisions. I believe that all decisions take consideration. The idea that "gut feeling," is something mysterious and is based on nothing more than a feeling is naive. Even a cop will tell you that his "gut feeling," about a suspect stems from years of experience dealing with suspects. As a former journalist I often used my "gut feeling," to ask a question that sent the interview down the path of true discovery instead of platitudes as most news articles go (this one included btw). But my decision to ask that question wasn't based on the ether rather on carefully considered data of the person I was interviewing, my own experience and the audience I was trying to reach. So I carefully considered all of that I just did it quickly and precisely because I'd done it hundreds of time before.
    I also don't believe you need reams of data to make good decisions in business or otherwise. You need RELEVANT data - which is increasingly difficult to find in this all-information-all the time age, but you don't necessarily need to know everything that's out there to make a good, sound decision.
    That said this article wasn't very enlightening but sparked really great discussion. I enjoyed reading others thoughts.

  • Posted By: bmarymee @ 11/26/2007 5:19:24 PM

    Comment: Great article, obviously a time honored approach to decision making.

  • Posted By: LovelyOne @ 11/26/2007 5:12:11 PM

    Comment: I think this is a great way to figure things out. My practice in life is that issues are only as big as you make them. For example, I find myself on the opposite end of the country as all my friends living and working with my father who I can't stand, and dating a guy who had the nerve to call me a *itch. YET I do nothing about it. Why do I not move back to Ohio? Why do I not break up with this guy? Because I sit here and over analyze what these things mean. All my other decisions in life have been "rash" as people like to say. I hear the facts and I play the cards i was dealt. But this time I've been folding instead of playing my hand, well lets just say it isn't making my life easier to think about things, I follow my heart and my gut and that's how I've lived up until now and starting with the new year (because I have good reasons to wait until then) I'll be living that way once again.
    A good friend of mine told me that the only thing i need to listen to is my heart. Don't think about every fact, think about what you feel is right. As a mother, i'd feel the right thing to do would be to get my child the quickest attention possible, me liking the doctors methods are irrelevant.
    Follow your heart and you're life will work out. Analyze everything, and you'll work yourself to death.

    • Posted By: Deusexmachina @ 11/27/2007 10:27:33

      Comment: There's a saying from the old country: What's right isn't always popular, what's popular isn't always right.

  • Posted By: LovelyOne @ 11/26/2007 5:11:57 PM

    Comment: I think this is a great way to figure things out. My practice in life is that issues are only as big as you make them. For example, I find myself on the opposite end of the country as all my friends living and working with my father who I can't stand, and dating a guy who had the nerve to call me a *itch. YET I do nothing about it. Why do I not move back to Ohio? Why do I not break up with this guy? Because I sit here and over analyze what these things mean. All my other decisions in life have been "rash" as people like to say. I hear the facts and I play the cards i was dealt. But this time I've been folding instead of playing my hand, well lets just say it isn't making my life easier to think about things, I follow my heart and my gut and that's how I've lived up until now and starting with the new year (because I have good reasons to wait until then) I'll be living that way once again.
    A good friend of mine told me that the only thing i need to listen to is my heart. Don't think about every fact, think about what you feel is right. As a mother, i'd feel the right thing to do would be to get my child the quickest attention possible, me liking the doctors methods are irrelevant.
    Follow your heart and you're life will work out. Analyze everything, and you'll work yourself to death.

  • Posted By: LovelyOne @ 11/26/2007 5:10:35 PM

    Comment: I think this is a great way to figure things out. My practice in life is that issues are only as big as you make them. For example, I find myself on the opposite end of the country as all my friends living and working with my father who I can't stand, and dating a guy who had the nerve to call me a *itch. YET I do nothing about it. Why do I not move back to Ohio? Why do I not break up with this guy? Because I sit here and over analyze what these things mean. All my other decisions in life have been "rash" as people like to say. I hear the facts and I play the cards i was dealt. But this time I've been folding instead of playing my hand, well lets just say it isn't making my life easier to think about things, I follow my heart and my gut and that's how I've lived up until now and starting with the new year (because I have good reasons to wait until then) I'll be living that way once again.
    A good friend of mine told me that the only thing i need to listen to is my heart. Don't think about every fact, think about what you feel is right. As a mother, i'd feel the right thing to do would be to get my child the quickest attention possible, me liking the doctors methods are irrelevant.
    Follow your heart and you're life will work out. Analyze everything, and you'll work yourself to death.

  • Posted By: KateinCA @ 11/26/2007 5:09:59 PM

    Comment: This is all covered in "Paradox of Choice", a book about how up to a certain quantity choice is good and freeing but after a certain quantity of choice (info) we reach a point where we are more overwhelmed with all that is available and the law of diminishing returns sets in. Helps a lot to be cognizant of this. Who hasn't been overwhelmed at something as inconsequential as a dinner menu.

  • Posted By: tinkertenor @ 11/26/2007 5:08:03 PM

    Comment: Isn't this just a rip-off of "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell, published a long time ago? Gimme a break.

  • Posted By: rjwebster @ 11/26/2007 5:05:14 PM

    Comment: As a research psychologist, the arguments presented are not cogent enough to support Gigerenzer's hypothesis that "gut feelings" are more "accurate" (if that is his hypothesis). In the first couple of examples, there is no one correct answer, so we cannot judge accuracy. As for picking schools, it appears Gigerenzer simply conducted two separate statistical analyses, of which I am not sure what Gigerenzer exactly did. The first sounded like a simultaneous regression, whereas the second sounded like a stepwise regression, however I am not sure. Further, I do not know how these analyses support Gigerenzer???s hypothesis given that this is a computer deciding criteria, not a human. All in all, there are more persuasive treatises supporting that unconscious or gut feelings can be more accurate (that is, when accuracy can be assessed) than deliberative thinking in SOME cases.

  • Posted By: rjwebster @ 11/26/2007 5:04:02 PM

    Comment: As a research psychologist, the arguments presented are not cogent enough to support Gigerenzer's hypothesis that "gut feelings" are more "accurate" (if that is his hypothesis). In the first couple of examples, there is no one correct answer, so we cannot judge accuracy. As for picking schools, it appears Gigerenzer simply conducted two separate statistical analyses, of which I am not sure what Gigerenzer exactly did. The first sounded like a simultaneous regression, whereas the second sounded like a stepwise regression, however I am not sure. Further, I do not know how these analyses support Gigerenzer???s hypothesis given that this is a computer deciding criteria, not a human. All in all, there are more persuasive treatises supporting that unconscious or gut feelings can be more accurate than deliberative thinking.

  • Posted By: Zaid @ 11/26/2007 5:02:35 PM

    Comment: Funny but not realistic nor practical in real world business problems. Yes in reality there might be fast and accurate decisions, but makers of such decisions do not relay on less information!! On the contrary they relay on a solid knowledge background that make them a kind of human knowledge-based system (KBS) that can make use of available information in making good decisions. Anyway, I think that decision makers in my country (Iraq), mainly politician, will be so happy for hearing such study since they have a horrible shortage of information, and they relay on ad hoc decision making methodologies!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Posted By: LovelyOne @ 11/26/2007 17:17:07

      Comment: why would this not be realistic in the business world? i'm 19 and about to own my own business and every decision i make it based on my gut... i think that people give the ability to analyze things too much credit because when we break it down, the most important things we do in life we do because of our feelings.. .so why not run everything with your feelings?
      my customers love me because i run my business with kindness and money comes second, thats why they always come back and so does their money.... i'm a jeweler and on the busiest day of the year black friday our store was closed, why, because it is more important to me and my partners to be with our families, and all our customers see that as a good choice becasue they relate to us on a personal basis

  • Posted By: Zaid @ 11/26/2007 4:57:51 PM

    Comment: Funny but not realistic nor practical in real world business problems. Yes in reality there might be fast and accurate decisions, but makers of such decisions do not relay on less information!! On the contrary they relay on a solid knowledge background that make them a kind of human knowledge-based system (KBS) that can make use of available information in making good decisions. Anyway, I think that decision makers in my country (Iraq), mainly politician, will be so happy for hearing such study since they have a horrible shortage of information, and they relay on ad hoc decision making methodologies!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Posted By: sirloign @ 11/26/2007 4:51:55 PM

    Comment: A lot of this is the theme of the book "Blink". I recommend Michael R. LeGault 's book "Think" for arguments on why Blink is flawed. Even the example above, about the doctor visit, seems weak. If your child is in a time-criticial situation, you need the quickest access to care. But if not, then 60 mins, 120 mins, it makes no difference, you get there when you get there. The only important fact is, is the child's situation critical?

  • Posted By: savealife @ 11/26/2007 4:50:33 PM

    Comment: Good grief! Doesn't anyone care that the kids with asthma may die if they wait for the "good listeners". As a 911 person illogical (gut ) decisions kill people everyday. I would take the faster,even if uncaring doctor anyday if it meant saving my child's life. Medications and medical interventions do not care whether the doctor is a good listener they work for the bad listener just as well. Better yet call for an ambulance and save the kids life. kids

    • Posted By: doesitmatter? @ 11/26/2007 17:12:38

      Comment: Exactly!!!!

    • Posted By: doesitmatter? @ 11/26/2007 17:10:34

      Comment: EXACTLY! Who cares how good a listener the doctor is when your childs short of breath and a Doctor is 20 minutes away? 60 minutes later the Doctor could listen very well to your child dying ... who are these " so called Majority people in this survey? I would like to know because if they live in my neighborhood I am moving.

      • Posted By: savealife @ 11/26/2007 19:11:06

        Comment: Yes it matters! People with chest pain make decisions that it is just "gas" and delay getting help or calling 911 because their "gut" feeling is it is just "gas". Do you know how many people would be saved or at least have less damage to their heart if they just called immediately. So much for "gut" instinct.

  • Posted By: Carlnews @ 11/26/2007 4:43:55 PM

    Comment: This is a good point in decision-making when time is of the essence. All things being equal however, it is probably wise and sound to allow for extensive considerations and calculations when given enough time, especially for complex business operations.

  • Posted By: blee18 @ 11/26/2007 4:25:32 PM

    Comment: The flaw in this article is Mr. Gigerenzer's laboratory experiement. He 'asked a large number of parents to consider a scenario ...'. These parents will react in entirely different ways when they experience this semi-emergency in real life. The experiment data did not make his thesis more convincing.

    blee in Moutain View CA

  • Posted By: Nexusahus @ 11/26/2007 4:24:08 PM

    Comment: Yes, most definitely has to do with our evolutionary genetic makeup which gave us and give us an advantage in making decisions...I have always functioned mainly on feel then intellect, not that I am anti-intellectual not at all. But as I began intricate attempts to make decisions I noticed that there was a drop on the times that I made the right choice. Now following my intuition it seems that I make the right choice most of the time.


  • Posted By: blee18 @ 11/26/2007 4:22:33 PM

    Comment: The flaw in this article is Mr. Gigerenzer's laboratory experiement. He 'asked a large number of parents to consider a scenario ...'. These parents will react in entirely different ways when they experience this semi-emergency in real life. The experiment data did not make his thesis more convincing.

    blee in Moutain View CA

  • Posted By: NewsUser @ 11/26/2007 4:22:01 PM

    Comment: Until Spring 2001, a lot of fellow day-traders were irrationally exuberant about their stock picks, ignoring the complex math behind sound decision making and settled for the single factor they could handle easily, "this stock seems to be going up forever, so let me jump on the band wagon before it's too late."

    Enuf said!!

  • Posted By: NewsUser @ 11/26/2007 4:21:19 PM

    Comment: Until Spring 2001, a lot of fellow day-traders were irrationally exuberant about their stock picks, ignoring the complex math behind sound decision making and settled for the single factor they could handle easily, "this stock seems to be going up forever, so let me jump on the band wagon before it's too late."

    'Nuf said!!

  • Posted By: wiseguy @ 11/26/2007 4:20:15 PM

    Comment: Yes, I agree using a more primitive or instinctive response to answering some of life's complex questions is the most favorable scenario...but living inside an information driven society, it's makes it very diificult to be in the moment when making decisions in the best light that will benefit our existance...Less Television and more family lessons would yield more profits but no one has time for family either...so we continue to mk the same mistakes time and time again...stumbling over the same issue that caused the caveman to expire...

  • Posted By: rockbitten @ 11/26/2007 4:19:58 PM

    Comment: A scientist uses intuition or "fast logic" to raise a gut feeling to a hypothesis level. Reducing twenty items for consideration to four is the logical phase of guestimation. Removing two more may involve both logic and intuition. The final step, for instance the choice of a college for Junior, involved intuition, which is based on experience as well as a heart-mind connection. Yes the school with the highest writing scores was the wisest choice.

  • Posted By: vohung013 @ 11/26/2007 4:18:53 PM

    Comment: I agree completely: I have been telling others this for years but no one believes me. I have been to many training sessions and class room environments with large groups of people that were asked to make decisions on important topics; I usually gave an immediate recommendation on the course of action or decision and was ignored by the group. Several days later after everyone was exhausted with studying all the pros and cons the group would decided on a course of action that was the same as my initial recommendation. I am not that smart but have always had this ability and I am very pleased to hear confirmation of this ability. I am sure that this finding will have no affect on most people because they are simply incapable of making a decision without studying the question and all relevant information to excess. Good information here, but my experience tells me that it will not be used by many decision makers

    • Posted By: Tammybr @ 11/26/2007 18:04:26

      Comment: How would you suggest using this method for decision making on personal life? For example, I am trying to decide if I should marry someone. A part of me says yes and a part of me says no. Overall he is a great guy. I am 38 years old and would like to have kids. Im just not as in love as i would like to be .

    • Posted By: TammyB @ 11/26/2007 18:03:02

      Comment: How would you suggest using this method for decision making on personal life? For example, I am trying to decide if I should marry someone. A part of me says yes and a part of me says no. Overall he is a great guy. I am 38 years old and would like to have kids. Im just not as in love as i would like to be .

  • Posted By: mpclemons @ 11/26/2007 4:18:27 PM

    Comment: I believe you reach a point in life where you either realize for yourself or teach your children not to over-analyze things. Much in the same way you think/feel about things for your children; Good for them OR Bad for them. This usually is a gut instinct for me. I also use it for myself. And if anyone wants an explanation, I just tell them, I am following my gut instinct on this. You may never be able to explain your thinking to someone but gut instincts are universal and innate for a reason. When it comes to life decisions, why should you do anything you don't want to. You should walk towards something, never away.

  • Posted By: JnA Pearl International @ 11/26/2007 4:18:26 PM

    Comment: I used the method listed in the article to decide to open my own eBusiness! online items. Https://Jnapearlinternational.mychoices.biz

    Check this out one stop shopping on name breand stuff Free shipping view the site for details! any questions email us through the contact us link bottom left of the page.

  • Posted By: mpclemons @ 11/26/2007 4:18:09 PM

    Comment: I believe you reach a point in life where you either realize for yourself or teach your children not to over-analyze things. Much in the same way you think/feel about things for your children; Good for them OR Bad for them. This usually is a gut instinct for me. I also use it for myself. And if anyone wants an explanation, I just tell them, I am following my gut instinct on this. You may never be able to explain your thinking to someone but gut instincts are universal and innate for a reason. When it comes to life decisions, why should you do anything you don't want to. You should walk towards something, never away.

  • Posted By: JnA Pearl International @ 11/26/2007 4:14:56 PM

    Comment: I basicially did this method to choose to get in to business for myself. Check out this website for the items i sell. you too can do this if interested send me an email through the contact us link. Https://jnapearlinternational.mychoices.biz

  • Posted By: UVAfunk @ 11/26/2007 4:14:28 PM

    Comment: The example about predicting the school with the lowest drop out rate shows the parlor trick here. All it's about is ranking the variables (within the hugely complex equation) and going with the highest ranked variable, because it obviously has the most pull on the outcome. I'd like to hear about a more complex test, say where all variables had equal influence on the outcome.....think heuristics could beat a machine then....not a chance. This is all about common sense, it's nothing new or special.

  • Posted By: UVAfunk @ 11/26/2007 4:11:08 PM

    Comment: The example about predicting the school with the lowest drop out rate shows the parlor trick here. All it's about is ranking the variables (within the hugely complex equation) and going with the highest ranked variable, because it obviously has the most pull on the outcome. I'd like to hear about a more complex test, say where all variables had equal influence on the outcome.....think heuristics could beat a machine then....not a chance. This is all about common sense, it's nothing new or special.

  • Posted By: kent45 @ 11/26/2007 4:07:58 PM

    Comment: hey future psych, yea mother africa cant steal all the money from herself.

  • Posted By: gozira @ 11/26/2007 4:07:14 PM

    Comment: Good journalists shouldn't use these shortcuts, they have to look at all the facts again and again so their article remains ambiguous and reality based. The writer should not have suggested that this new evidence answers questions about our ability to cope with the "tsunami" of info...See Michael Crichton's "State of Fear" for a detailed examination of what damage journalists can do when they take scientific evidence and make suggestions toward popular cultural phenomenon. But then again, this article was on the web, part of that tsunami, so maybe shortcuts are okay?

  • Posted By: Deusexmachina @ 11/26/2007 4:06:52 PM

    Comment: It's best to promote sound logic and critical thinking in a society where the lack of souhd logic and critical thinking prevails. As Antispin alluded to, we don't need any more 'dumbing down' of our society. 'Blink' thinking is great for menial, routine tasks, but I would never use heueristic thinking for more complex, life issues.

  • Posted By: Glowingluma @ 11/26/2007 4:06:18 PM

    Comment: BCooper I think you are wrong... Increasing divorce rates and personal credit card debt are NOT just part of the testimony to what happens when gut rules. Increasing divorce rates and personal credit card debt is due to the VERY destructive mind set of the american culture. But that's a whole other issue. I do believe that most times the best decisions are made by gut feelings but this applies to only a few people. People that have a truly good understanding of this world and how it works or just have good "FEELINGS". Data crunching method is a good alternative to those without good intuition, but personally I do not think it is the best. Bottom line only a few have good intuition.

  • Posted By: Itiswhatitis @ 11/26/2007 4:05:39 PM

    Comment: I believe many people do not have good street smarts or are intuitive, therefore they cannot make a decision on their gut feeling.

    The "kiss" principle usually works and if you have the propensity to "see the big picture' then often major decisions are made by evaluating at a higher level and ignoring the "noise" from all the details will work in your favor.

    One important factor is that you have to make a decision, good or bad. People are reluctant because they are afraid of making the wrong decision or at best not the best decision.

    If is smells funny, then most likely it is. Intuition is a natural gift and I think is hard to teach. Experience however goes a long way to becoming more intuitive.

  • Posted By: mslotdot @ 11/26/2007 4:03:29 PM

    Comment: I am one of those people who tend to "overthink" decisions. I even have difficulty making a decision as to what to eat, if the menu is too large. I believe that this lengthy decision making is based in fear. Thank you for letting me know that my original "hunch" is usually right. What I thought about when I read this article is as a child when I played the card game Spades it was always said "study long, study wrong". Now I can apply that to some real life situations.

  • Posted By: Deusexmachina @ 11/26/2007 4:01:31 PM

    Comment: It's best, perhaps, to promote sound reasoning and logical thinking in a society where lack of reasoning and logic prevails. There should be no apologies or shortcuts for sound thinking. This 'Blink' thinking might be okay for menial, routine tasks. It doesn't, however, make any sense to use heuerisitc thinking for more complex, life decisions.

  • Posted By: antispin @ 11/26/2007 4:01:22 PM

    Comment: Yes America! Trust your gut, like george bush jr. does! But in all seriousness...I feel as if this is propaganda to further dumb down the people who haven't yet developed a sense of using science and logic to formulate opinions, as pure logic suggests that most things can be proven by similar actions from another source. ALWAYS do your research, then formulate an opinion!

  • Posted By: tmcbrayer @ 11/26/2007 4:01:14 PM

    Comment: We tend to overthink things alot when the answer is right in front of us. If we just go with our gut feeling, like we are old to do on test, we will come out better in the end.
    - A College Student

  • Posted By: antispin @ 11/26/2007 4:00:19 PM

    Comment: Yes America! Trust your gut, like george bush jr. does! But in all seriousness...I feel as if this is propaganda to further dumb down the people who haven't yet developed a sense of using science and logic to formulate opinions, as pure logic suggests that most things can be proven by similar actions from another source. ALWAYS do your research, then formulate an opinion!

    George

  • Posted By: Oh Really? @ 11/26/2007 3:59:43 PM

    Comment: Ask any high School student who didnt study for a test and just went with his/her gut on test day exactly how effective it was...

  • Posted By: Cato @ 11/26/2007 3:57:41 PM

    Comment: I recently raised money for an investment. At the closing dinner, I asked some of the investors why they invested. To a person they all said that my partner had made a lot of money for them in the past, so they invested now. So all the disclosure was meaningless -- my partner was not.

  • Posted By: GaryEAndrews @ 11/26/2007 3:55:55 PM

    Comment: One flaw may be in the value placed on any given data element. One may assess or assign value to a bit of data which more data-collection, processing, and analysis reveals is over- or under-valued. We have glass windows all around our cars, enabling ongoing data-collection. When it snows I often see people who clear a small peephole by which to do their data-collection. A friend who tried it wrecked by turning left into the path of an oncoming car.
    There are times to trust one's intuition and times to collect, process and analyze as complete a complement of data as can be amassed before deciding. We can make low-quality decisions if we fail to collect data, mis-collect the wrong data, mis-process, or mis-analyze the data. Again, the demand for a decision immediately may make instinct the most valuable of tools at your disposal.

  • Posted By: Mustang79925 @ 11/26/2007 3:55:36 PM

    Comment: Thank-god someone has finally put this in perspective and in print. I've been doing this for years, weighing the pros and cons before making a decision and then finally deciding, usually based on much less information. And here I thought I was going nuts! Thanks doc, whew.
    Mustang79925

  • Posted By: jason.cleaver @ 11/26/2007 3:54:37 PM

    Comment: Well isn't a hunch just a signal that you get from your brain saying you don't have to do a bunch of calculations because you have already done them sub-consciously. So that's why you got that hunch in the first place because your mind has already thought about a lot of the possible outcomes without you having to concentrate to much on them. That way you can do things faster and better with a higher chance of a positive outcome. You have to remeber the things that float up in your mind are just on the surface of a very deep lake. The human brain is the most powerful machine ever evolved. The brain is so perfect it even keeps its secrets safe from us the "self-destructors." I didn't even read the article. HAHAHA. I just felt like writing something.

    • Posted By: t2turl @ 11/26/2007 16:06:09

      Comment: Good feedback, Jason. Spoken like a good therapist!

      • Posted By: 77mayflower @ 11/26/2007 17:03:21

        Comment: Jason I like your response. Are you a teacher or in the medical field? I ask because I have been trying to figure out and surpass some inner turmoil thats come up in my life recently and have caused lots of anger, fatigue sorrow and hopelessness because I feel like I cant control my thinking and it is not exactly being a good friend at this time of my life. I realize it may seem directly from childhood related experiences but I am an adult now and my life feels life its spinning out of balance. Any advice?
        Thank You,
        Eliza

    • Posted By: t2turl @ 11/26/2007 16:04:31

      Comment: Good response, Jason. I tend to agree with your summation, although unfettered by reading the article.

  • Posted By: Future Doc @ 11/26/2007 3:53:54 PM

    Comment: Good feedback, and so true. Time can be much better spent on accomplishments than overthinking our daily lives.

    -A Future Psych

  • Posted By: banzaiotis @ 11/26/2007 3:52:53 PM

    Comment: Cool article, but the treatment of hard science in this article makes me a little skeptical. First off, regression analysis is hardly "jargon". It is a sound technique that is often used to measure correlations between different sets of data. And, unlike Franklin's "algebra", it is a mathematically proven process (using real math...) which requires a calculus level understanding of optimization. Also, given the fact that a properly done analysis would give the the most probable outcome (based on the given data), it's hard to swallow that the gut instinct would outperform regression on average. So maybe the cases where it happened to are being a little over stated here? Otherwise, you are saying that human intuition will beat the odds - a statement that I think a lot of wealthy casino owners in Las Vegas would strongly disagree with if you wantet a second opinion. It's too short of an article to tell for sure, but this kind of has the smell of junk science about it.

  • Posted By: dc2141 @ 11/26/2007 3:52:10 PM

    Comment: Of course, taking such shortcuts carries two huge risks: first, it opens the door for emotional, irrational desires to wedge their way into the decision-making process, which nearly always leads to bad decisions that might feel good in the short term but ultimately lead to bad results. Second, by taking such shortcuts, one is opened to manipulators who are good at constructing situations where such shortcuts are tempting. Read Robert Cialdini's Persuasion book to learn more about how many cons, high-pressure sales pitches, and other situations can be set up by shrewd people with something to gain to encourage just this kind of snap judgment because they've constructed the situation so that that quick decision favors them.

  • Posted By: dc2141 @ 11/26/2007 3:51:26 PM

    Comment: Of course, taking such shortcuts carries two huge risks: first, it opens the door for emotional, irrational desires to wedge their way into the decision-making process, which nearly always leads to bad decisions that might feel good in the short term but ultimately lead to bad results. Second, by taking such shortcuts, one is opened to manipulators who are good at constructing situations where such shortcuts are tempting. Read Robert Cialdini's Persuasion book to learn more about how many cons, high-pressure sales pitches, and other situations can be set up by shrewd people with something to gain to encourage just this kind of snap judgment because they've constructed the situation so that that quick decision favors them.

  • Posted By: khaos @ 11/26/2007 3:50:30 PM

    Comment: If the doctor wont listen, it it guaranteed that he come to a sound conclusion? No. There may be information that can be useful and help the child over a long term plan rather than a quick fix by a doctor who thinks he knows what is going on instead of ruling out possible causes of the wheezing. Does this mean the doctors that will listen will do a better job? Not all the time. It's an issue of comfort and the notion that they want the best care for their child, which doesn't always mean it's going to be the quickest.
    The also never said how bad the wheezing was.
    Some people like to rationalize their lives, and it works for them. It's not always so for everyone.

  • Posted By: rasmd @ 11/26/2007 3:49:41 PM

    Comment: As a physician (pathologist) involved in diagnostic decision making, I think the truth lies in the middle between the "go with your gut" and the "complex analytical". We often make decisions based on templates - the older and more experienced we get, the more developed these templates are. We can then fill these templates in with remarkable speed so that while it seems like a gut decision, there is actually much more going on. Individual facts are not independent but often sort with other facts in a positive or negative way. Thus neither extreme really explains how we make decisions. We need always to be mindful of whether there are sufficient facts present to make the decision that is called upon, and more importantly, if it is necessary to make that decision as quickly as would seem necessary at the time.

    • Posted By: t2turl @ 11/26/2007 16:07:54

      Comment: Very good point, see the book "The Gift of Fear", not sure of the author.

  • Posted By: laman5105 @ 11/26/2007 3:49:37 PM

    Comment: Going back to High School, College and even Navy Training days we were always told your first choice of answers is usually the correct answer. However, I would point out that intuitive decision making should at least be disciplined intuitiion. The opposite of disciplined intuition is "impulsive" decision making and that is disastrous. With that caveat I think the article is right on. Hoorah for Simplicity!!

  • Posted By: khaos @ 11/26/2007 3:49:09 PM

    Comment: If the doctor wont listen, it it guaranteed that he come to a sound conclusion? No. There may be information that can be useful and help the child over a long term plan rather than a quick fix by a doctor who thinks he knows what is going on instead of ruling out possible causes of the wheezing. Does this mean the doctors that will listen will do a better job? Not all the time. It's an issue of comfort and the notion that they want the best care for their child, which doesn't always mean it's going to be the quickest.
    The also never said how bad the wheezing was.
    Some people like to rationalize their lives, and it works for them. It's not always so for everyone.

  • Posted By: alsheik @ 11/26/2007 3:49:08 PM

    Comment: thanks a lot for supporting my ideas.all big metters for me are small and not a big deal because when it,s big means it,s clear .but the small metters are so buzzel and hid unshown aims

  • Posted By: miguifano @ 11/26/2007 3:48:53 PM

    Comment: Not true. It's nothing more than a synthesis judgment that allows for further consideration at a later date, if necessary. Not unlike "Achems Razor," which states that given a series of answers, the most easily explained is most often the correct one. That being said, the caveat regards "most easily explained," for if it does not best explain the answer, one is to move on (without haste) into the realm of standard regression analysis in which all elements of fact are considered before making a decision. I believe it is possible for one to follow ???gut reactions??? and the ???philosophy of heuristics??? out the outset without sacrificing solid decision-making as the final goal of the individual exercise.

  • Posted By: miguifano @ 11/26/2007 3:48:17 PM

    Comment: Not true. It's nothing more than a synthesis judgment that allows for further consideration at a later date, if necessary. Not unlike "Achems Razor," which states that given a series of answers, the most easily explained is most often the correct one. That being said, the caveat regards "most easily explained," for if it does not best explain the answer, one is to move on (without haste) into the realm of standard regression analysis in which all elements of fact are considered before making a decision. I believe it is possible for one to follow ???gut reactions??? and the ???philosophy of heuristics??? out the outset without sacrificing solid decision-making as the final goal of the individual exercise.

  • Posted By: LarryJSnell @ 11/26/2007 3:47:03 PM

    Comment: Come on! We have lost the "common sense factor" in almost everything we do or say- Why must we depend on media to tell us how to think for crying out loud- Are we really that dependent on others opinions? Can we not form our own ideas? Can we not react without consulting some goof who happens to tickle our ears? Some dope reads an article and says it's gospel- We are truly lemmings going off the deep end without a paddle or a boat to boot! In everything use common sense or moderation folks! Don't listen to those who feel they have a higher IQ- Exercise your brains and use them- Can't hurt and certainly will help!

  • Posted By: chrisf75067 @ 11/26/2007 3:44:52 PM

    Comment: Remeber they saying "think long, think wrong" :)

  • Posted By: laman5105 @ 11/26/2007 3:44:33 PM

    Comment: ui

  • Posted By: designdriver @ 11/26/2007 3:41:45 PM

    Comment: Read: Blink. How to think with out thinking. This research relates to credibiltiy of information. With all of the conflicting information on any subject that is available how does one decide what is right? Most individuals with go with their bias, wich is another word for being primed to think a certain way. Being primed or biased, turns off your ability to sense your gut reaction. Dont let them prime you for aquiesessense, go gut feeling.

  • Posted By: ronos @ 11/26/2007 3:41:03 PM

    Comment: comment: yeah i hope thats another way of solving issues but for me i normarlly forget it for sometime and i know inside me am looking for asolution, infact every person has or her own ways of dealing with matters concerning solutions,,,,,,,,,,,,, Thanks

  • Posted By: tpalmerphd@bellsouth.net @ 11/26/2007 3:40:31 PM

    Comment: It's important to consider these findings in light of the research of Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in economics for demonstrating the many of our heuristics lead to faulty decision making. Intuition and gut feelings are a mixed bag, and their accuracy probably depends on a lot of other factors related to awareness and insight.

    • Posted By: dychejs @ 11/26/2007 22:46:23

      Comment: Excellent point. But I fear this is not a crowd who appreciates the science of Kahneman but, rather, wants to believe that our intuitions are more powerful than scientific analyses... And to be honest, i wish such were true as it is comforting (though false).

  • Posted By: kvkkvk @ 11/26/2007 3:37:33 PM

    Comment: I read the book "Blink" a year ago. Same concept. So this new book is basically "been there; done that".

  • Posted By: Cripper @ 11/26/2007 3:37:27 PM

    Comment: This is Bush Administration-type thinking. "Our intuition is that we will be greeted as librators when we Invade Iraq/Iran, so let's not bother to look closely at the situation." Michael Chertoff's gut told him that Al Qeida was planning an attack, so let's ratchet up the fear level. Intuition tells them that global warming is a hoax, so all the scientific evidence is wrong. This article promotes intellectual laziness, which has become more epidemic in America than obesity.

    • Posted By: Ron Paul For Pope @ 11/28/2007 17:08:28

      Comment: Hear, hear. Well said. Let's throw Intelligent Design into that pot, too.

  • Posted By: designdriver @ 11/26/2007 3:36:59 PM

    Comment: its about time. this research relates to credibility. What information should you believe? With all of the conflicting information available on any subject. Go with you gut, but know that the sellers of certain information are trying to prime you to turn your gut feelings off so that their info will seem more palpable to you.

  • Posted By: kvkkvk @ 11/26/2007 3:36:57 PM

    Comment: I read the book "Blink" a year ago. Same concept. So this new book is basically "been there; done that".

  • Posted By: Flagler10 @ 11/26/2007 3:34:24 PM

    Comment: The website www.procon.org seems to be the realization of Benjamin's Franklins "moral algebra" vision. They post pros and cons of various controversial issues, and they even spell out how Franklin is related to their effort.

  • Posted By: dychejs @ 11/26/2007 3:34:08 PM

    Comment: This smacks of pop psych mumbo jumbo. How unfortunate the popular press has picked this up. I laboriously teach my students, many of whom will be warfighters in an operational theater, to NOT always trust your instincts and to do everything possible to obtain objective data before making a decision in which lives are at stake. Using your "gut" is not a good approach when there are data available and there are plenty of studies to support that. Doesn't anyone talk about the ills of Hindsight Bias anymore? Or the availability heuristic? Or about how algorithms are consistently better than heuristics (albeit more laborious)? Another black eye for academic psychology. *sigh*

  • Posted By: BCooper @ 11/26/2007 3:30:06 PM

    Comment: Just another philosophy supporting the doctrine of the "Do what FEELS good" element of society. The advantage of moral algebra is that, when performed sincerely, it encourages one to indentify and take note of concerns that might not otherwise be considered, but which could have serious implications. Increasing divorce rates and personal credit card debt are just part of the testimony to what happens when gut rules!

  • Posted By: michael-chuka @ 11/26/2007 3:29:54 PM

    Comment: CONCLUSION IS COMMOM SENSE. Most people make choices based on heuristics, and most times are right. There are intangibles and unknowns that can only be sensed, but not reducible into empirical formulas and calculations. The human being is more of an emotional than a rational being.