Less (Information) Is More

This is all covered in "Paradox of Choice", a book about how up to a certain quantity choice is good and freeing but after a certain quantity of choice (info) we reach a point where we are more overwhelmed with all that is available and the law of diminishing returns sets in. Helps a lot to be cognizant of this. Who hasn't been overwhelmed at something as inconsequential as a dinner menu.

Isn't this just a rip-off of "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell, published a long time ago? Gimme a break.

As a research psychologist, the arguments presented are not cogent enough to support Gigerenzer's hypothesis that "gut feelings" are more "accurate" (if that is his hypothesis). In the first couple of examples, there is no one correct answer, so we cannot judge accuracy. As for picking schools, it appears Gigerenzer simply conducted two separate statistical analyses, of which I am not sure what Gigerenzer exactly did. The first sounded like a simultaneous regression, whereas the second sounded like a stepwise regression, however I am not sure. Further, I do not know how these analyses support Gigerenzer???s hypothesis given that this is a computer deciding criteria, not a human. All in all, there are more persuasive treatises supporting that unconscious or gut feelings can be more accurate (that is, when accuracy can be assessed) than deliberative thinking in SOME cases.

As a research psychologist, the arguments presented are not cogent enough to support Gigerenzer's hypothesis that "gut feelings" are more "accurate" (if that is his hypothesis). In the first couple of examples, there is no one correct answer, so we cannot judge accuracy. As for picking schools, it appears Gigerenzer simply conducted two separate statistical analyses, of which I am not sure what Gigerenzer exactly did. The first sounded like a simultaneous regression, whereas the second sounded like a stepwise regression, however I am not sure. Further, I do not know how these analyses support Gigerenzer???s hypothesis given that this is a computer deciding criteria, not a human. All in all, there are more persuasive treatises supporting that unconscious or gut feelings can be more accurate than deliberative thinking.

Funny but not realistic nor practical in real world business problems. Yes in reality there might be fast and accurate decisions, but makers of such decisions do not relay on less information!! On the contrary they relay on a solid knowledge background that make them a kind of human knowledge-based system (KBS) that can make use of available information in making good decisions. Anyway, I think that decision makers in my country (Iraq), mainly politician, will be so happy for hearing such study since they have a horrible shortage of information, and they relay on ad hoc decision making methodologies!!!!!!!!!!!!

A lot of this is the theme of the book "Blink". I recommend Michael R. LeGault 's book "Think" for arguments on why Blink is flawed. Even the example above, about the doctor visit, seems weak. If your child is in a time-criticial situation, you need the quickest access to care. But if not, then 60 mins, 120 mins, it makes no difference, you get there when you get there. The only important fact is, is the child's situation critical?

This is a good point in decision-making when time is of the essence. All things being equal however, it is probably wise and sound to allow for extensive considerations and calculations when given enough time, especially for complex business operations.

The flaw in this article is Mr. Gigerenzer's laboratory experiement. He 'asked a large number of parents to consider a scenario ...'. These parents will react in entirely different ways when they experience this semi-emergency in real life. The experiment data did not make his thesis more convincing.

blee in Moutain View CA

Yes, most definitely has to do with our evolutionary genetic makeup which gave us and give us an advantage in making decisions...I have always functioned mainly on feel then intellect, not that I am anti-intellectual not at all. But as I began intricate attempts to make decisions I noticed that there was a drop on the times that I made the right choice. Now following my intuition it seems that I make the right choice most of the time.

The flaw in this article is Mr. Gigerenzer's laboratory experiement. He 'asked a large number of parents to consider a scenario ...'. These parents will react in entirely different ways when they experience this semi-emergency in real life. The experiment data did not make his thesis more convincing.

blee in Moutain View CA

Until Spring 2001, a lot of fellow day-traders were irrationally exuberant about their stock picks, ignoring the complex math behind sound decision making and settled for the single factor they could handle easily, "this stock seems to be going up forever, so let me jump on the band wagon before it's too late."

Enuf said!!

Until Spring 2001, a lot of fellow day-traders were irrationally exuberant about their stock picks, ignoring the complex math behind sound decision making and settled for the single factor they could handle easily, "this stock seems to be going up forever, so let me jump on the band wagon before it's too late."

'Nuf said!!

Yes, I agree using a more primitive or instinctive response to answering some of life's complex questions is the most favorable scenario...but living inside an information driven society, it's makes it very diificult to be in the moment when making decisions in the best light that will benefit our existance...Less Television and more family lessons would yield more profits but no one has time for family either...so we continue to mk the same mistakes time and time again...stumbling over the same issue that caused the caveman to expire...

A scientist uses intuition or "fast logic" to raise a gut feeling to a hypothesis level. Reducing twenty items for consideration to four is the logical phase of guestimation. Removing two more may involve both logic and intuition. The final step, for instance the choice of a college for Junior, involved intuition, which is based on experience as well as a heart-mind connection. Yes the school with the highest writing scores was the wisest choice.

I believe you reach a point in life where you either realize for yourself or teach your children not to over-analyze things. Much in the same way you think/feel about things for your children; Good for them OR Bad for them. This usually is a gut instinct for me. I also use it for myself. And if anyone wants an explanation, I just tell them, I am following my gut instinct on this. You may never be able to explain your thinking to someone but gut instincts are universal and innate for a reason. When it comes to life decisions, why should you do anything you don't want to. You should walk towards something, never away.

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I believe you reach a point in life where you either realize for yourself or teach your children not to over-analyze things. Much in the same way you think/feel about things for your children; Good for them OR Bad for them. This usually is a gut instinct for me. I also use it for myself. And if anyone wants an explanation, I just tell them, I am following my gut instinct on this. You may never be able to explain your thinking to someone but gut instincts are universal and innate for a reason. When it comes to life decisions, why should you do anything you don't want to. You should walk towards something, never away.

I basicially did this method to choose to get in to business for myself. Check out this website for the items i sell. you too can do this if interested send me an email through the contact us link. Https://jnapearlinternational.mychoices.biz

The example about predicting the school with the lowest drop out rate shows the parlor trick here. All it's about is ranking the variables (within the hugely complex equation) and going with the highest ranked variable, because it obviously has the most pull on the outcome. I'd like to hear about a more complex test, say where all variables had equal influence on the outcome.....think heuristics could beat a machine then....not a chance. This is all about common sense, it's nothing new or special.