The Sermon On The Mall

Desires to limit holiday spending are easily confounded. There are always last-minute additions to the list—the client who sends over a box of cookies that must be reciprocated.

But there are deeper reasons American shoppers tell pollsters one thing and do another. Hardy American consumers have clearly conditioned themselves to shop till they drop in the frenzied five-week period between Thanksgiving and New Year's, no matter the distraction. (Insert lament/screed over the commercialization of the sacred here.) Over the decades, powerful social, emotional and cultural forces have built up, instilling habits that have evolved into instincts. In the last several weeks of each year, these forces compel Americans to flock to the malls, and to log on to shopping Web sites. To prepare for these journeys, people gather fuel and conserve energy (i.e., save money), or steel themselves for a few months of lean times.

The Christmas pessimists err by continually viewing holiday shopping as a discretionary item, subject to the short-term whims of the economy. But the evidence suggests that buying toys for children, jewelry for spouses and fruitcakes for those random folks for whom we have to buy presents isn't a matter of choice. It's compulsory at some level. And during boom and bust, Americans take the necessary measures to ensure they have enough cash to spend. From an economist's perspective, that may be the true meaning of Christmas.

The American consumer, exhausted, pinched, indebted and fearful, is likely to slow down and may eventually collapse—just not in the next few weeks. So while the macroeconomic tidings are anything but joyful, it's quite possible this will be a Merry Christmas for retailers.

On Penney's, on Zales, on Bergdorf and Goodman! On Target, on Wal-Mart, on Marcus and Neiman!

© 2007