How No. 1s Pick No. 2s

As the Democrats' nominee, Obama's largest vulnerability would be his inexperience regarding foreign and military affairs. He could pick a former four-star Army general with diplomatic experience brokering peace in the Balkans—Wesley Clark. Or if Obama worried that such a choice might indicate insecurity, he could pick the governor of a Red—actually, an increasingly purple—state and turn it Blue: Tim Kaine of Virginia (13 electoral votes), which has not voted Democratic since 1964.

If Romney is the Republican nominee, that will indicate that he has assuaged social conservatives' suspicions about his late conversions to their causes. If Giuliani is the nominee, that will be in spite of the fact that social conservatives remain wary. Many of them might stay home in November 2008 to ensure a "purposeful loss" that teaches the party not to choose pro-choice nominees.

Giuliani's biggest weakness is his personal history and his weakest region is the South, where almost 40 percent of Republicans live. He could select the guitar-playing former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, the Baptist minister who is as cuddly as Giuliani is abrasive. Giuliani would have to hope that Huckabee would stifle his impulse to say entertaining but idiotic things, such as: We can be energy independent in 10 years and then tell Saudi Arabia we "have about as much interest in their oil as we do their sand."

Romney might be the most unconstrained of the four in selecting a running mate. A former business executive, he is partial to people who have run large entities, which would point him toward other governors. That would reinforce his theme that Washington cannot be improved by people acculturated to its milieu. Because the winner of the presidency usually wins a majority of the states in the Mississippi Valley, Romney might select Matt Blunt, 37, of Missouri, the bellwether state: It is the only state that has voted with every presidential winner since 1956. Or Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who turns 47 this week. Minnesota (10 electoral votes) is the only state that has voted Democratic in eight consecutive presidential elections.

Few voters will vote for the running mate rather than the person who chose him. But many voters might vote for the person at the top of the ticket because of what the bottom of the ticket says about the person at the top. Actually, most of those at the top of tickets probably regret the 12th Amendment. Before it was ratified in 1804, presidential nominees did not have the nuisance of running mates.

© 2007