Bracing For the Gender Neutral Test
For Hillary Clinton, a funny thing has happened on the way to the Democratic nomination: one of her biggest potential handicaps—her gender—has become her biggest strength. Seeking to "smash" what she calls "the highest glass ceiling," Clinton has secured a 20-point national lead among Democrats almost solely on the basis of her support among women, who favored her by 42 points over Barack Obama in the October ABC/Washington Post survey.
But does Clinton's early advantage mean we're past gender when picking presidents? Not so fast, say experts. The Democratic primary is one thing—Dems are typically more comfortable than Republicans when it comes to voting for women. But the general election is a much different test. (Assuming Clinton gets that far: the latest ABC/Washington Post poll shows Obama ahead in Iowa, and tied among women there.) "The idea that gender won't matter in the general election is just insane," says unaffiliated Democratic pollster Mark Blumenthal. "Gender brings all sorts of baggage. The big question is, is it a net plus or a net minus?"
Early signs suggest America hasn't figured that out yet. While 90 percent of the populace claims to be ready for a Madame President, a third of Americans also say that most people they know will be "less likely" to vote for Clinton because she's a woman—more than twice the number who say her gender will win her more votes, according to a New York Times poll in July. Such a gap hints that Clinton may end up, like many African-American candidates over the years, with fewer votes on Election Day than the polls predicted. Recent Gallup matchups against Rudy Giuliani show Clinton running weaker among women (6 percent over Giuliani, on average) than Gore in 2000 (8 percent over Bush). In fact, her outsize deficit among men—16 points versus seven for Gore—means that, all else being equal, she'd actually do worse than the former veep.
Clinton pollster Mark Penn has said that Clinton's gender-related strengths in the general election outweigh her weaknesses. Last month he told reporters that up to 24 percent of Republican women would support Clinton. Maybe so. But it's worth remembering that Gore in 2000 outperformed Clinton's New York numbers among Republican women by five points, and this year GOP and independent women are more willing to rule out Clinton than Obama. In other words, Clinton's camp may say she's "inevitable" in the primary, but the gender battle is far from over. In fact, it hasn't even begun.
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Member Comments
Posted By: jamrock66 @ 04/24/2008 3:42:32 PM
Comment: Younger voters will resonate with Obama because we can identify with him, and in some way he understand that the major part of the problem in this country is Older folks. They are to be blamed for taking us down the road we are presently on. They lack vision and so they are now dampening our dream of a brighter future and a more unified America.
They fail to understand that if our future continues to be as bleak as they lay it out for us, then, their social security will be limited in scope and we will force them back into the stone age. Let's see how they like bread and water. As young people we will take back this country and prove to the rest of the world that we can unite and become masters of our own destiny.
Those old folks who are championing for the Clintons can forever continue to hold on to fading dreams. All this garbage about black and white is but a stench in a drifting wind that will eventually fade away. Obama gives hope to both Black and white, in that the presidency is now open to any child regardless of his family background. If we should look at Hilary we can see that everyone cannot identify with her, however every child, black white or brown can identify with Obama.
The future is ours to take and decide what direction we so choose to follow. Young people wake up and follow your dream, a dream for a better future, if the old fargies fail to see vision then I guarantee you it will be their loss.
Where there is no vision the people perish.
These are the days when young men will dream dreams and old men will see visions.
As young people we must refuse to carry the burden and anxiety that is attributed to racism a legacy from our forefathers. Let it go my people and you will experience tremendous growth.
Posted By: jimmycrab @ 12/04/2007 9:52:15 PM
Comment: Have no problem with a women being president. Though I think the first one should be very special and not a person full of lies and deceit. Hillary represents everything that has gone wrong with this country in the past twenty years.
Posted By: nighthawk605 @ 11/29/2007 10:30:55 AM
Comment: I won't vote for Hillary because of her views and politics. Hillary is a wolf in sheep's clothing: she's running as a moderate democrat just to get more votes, but in reality she supports a socialist-like economy.
Ladies, don't vote for her just because you want to see a woman in the white house. Hillary will lead our country in the wrong direction, and the next president will have to spend billions of taxpayer dollars to undo the damage she'll cause to our country.