Dueling Dictators

As tensions with its much larger neighbor have heightened, Afwerki has conscripted an ever-larger share of its working age population into the military, triggering economic stagnation and a growing stream of defectors. Though Eritrea may be legally in the right when it comes to Badme, it's having a hard time finding many sympathizers.

Predicting what either of the secretive regimes will do is difficult. Without diplomatic help from the outside world, Eritrea's increasingly desperate regime may look to launch a quick strike and hope that international pressure would lead to a ceasefire before Ethiopia could launch a counterattack. Likewise there has been speculation that Zenawi, sensing Afwerki's isolation and confident about Washington's support for Ethiopia, would launch a coup against his old ally—followed by an Ethiopian invasion. "[If] we go to war, the war will be not only to defend ourselves," Zenawi said in a speech Tuesday. "We will teach Eritrea that there won't be a third time."

With tensions rising, analysts believe that Washington and the United Nations also need to put pressure on both sides. While the U.N. could exert diplomatic pressure, the Bush administration could threaten Zenawi with sanctions and a withdrawal of aid if he attacks Eritrea. Earlier this month, U. N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged that the boundary commission be allowed to proceed with demarcation, and the U.S. State Department issued a statement urging both sides to exercise "maximum restraint."

That may not be enough. Should the two sides ignore peace overtures, it's ordinary Ethiopians and Eritreans who will suffer most. Tsega Gebreab, 57, fled Eritrea last year after the government confiscated her husband's farm and conscripted her eldest son. Now living in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, she says she can't sleep at night for fear that her son is at the front and soon to become cannon fodder in a war she can't understand. "I almost went mad when my child was taken," she says, her voice cracking. "We're constantly stressed." In this volatile part of the world, that's unlikely to change any time soon.

© 2007