No Man's Land

Before 9/11, especially during the Soviet presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan and U.S. policies in the border region converged; a friendly government in Afghanistan gave Islamabad strategic depth against India as well as a land bridge across Central Asia, and an open border ensured easy access to Kabul. This fit well into Washington's strategic objective, which looked to Pakistan as a vantage ground to prevent Soviet hegemony in the region. But post-9/11, the United States wants greater controls on the border. Pakistan's national interest now conflicts with its foreign policy and the most powerful state institution, the Pakistani military, is caught in the middle. Experts say that while the Pakistani army would like to continue its support of some of these militant groups to counter what it perceives as the security threat from India and its continued claim to Kashmir, it now has to appease the United States for strategic, military, and foreign aid. Hassan Abbas, a research fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government writes that extremism has been rising in Pakistan's border areas and they continue to provide sanctuary to militants who spread insurgency in Afghanistan.

The Pakistani army has shown it is not sufficiently equipped to fight insurgency in these areas. Former CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Mahnaz Ispahani says there is some validity to the argument that the Pakistani army cannot entirely control or close the border with Afghanistan. Islamabad and the FATA regions have long followed a policy of "live and let live," with minimal interference in one another's affairs, but Ispahani says the United States would like to see this changed.

Looking Ahead
A classified U.S. military proposal disclosed by the New York Times outlines an intensified effort to enlist tribal leaders in the border areas of Pakistan in the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban. If adopted, the proposal would "directly finance a separate tribal paramilitary force," the newspaper says. The United States has also started a five-year $750 million assistance program in the FATA. The State Department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs assists the Frontier Corps, a Pakistani federal paramilitary force stationed in the NWFP and Balochistan,with financing for counternarcotics work.

To restructure the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan, a Council Special Report, authored by Rubin, recommends recognition of an international border by the two countries and cooperative development of the tribal areas on either side. It also suggests transforming the status of the tribal areas in Pakistan and empowering the people by allowing them to participate in elections.

Ispahani says besides security and military cooperation, the two countries must focus more on economic issues. Being a landlocked country and sharing one of its longest borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan's economy is "incredibly dependent on Pakistan" and this has moderated Afghan's policy with its neighbor, she says. Marvin G. Weinbaum, a former Pakistan and Afghanistan analyst at the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, writes that Pakistan's wide-ranging exports to Afghanistan amounts to roughly $1.2 billion per year and it imports more than $ 700 million worth of goods.

Experts say tensions might ease with the new Pakistani army chief solely focused on military matters and securing the border. From 1999 to 2007, Pervez Musharraf was busy running the country in his dual role as president and leader of the military. A change in army leadership, however, by no means solves the bigger problems of limitations or the will of the army itself. Ispahani suggests in both countries, especially in Pakistan, there needs to be a greater recognition that the war against militancy is in the country's own interests.

© 2007