Putting On Their Game Faces

At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner, Obama brought many Clinton supporters to their feet by promising to end the warfare between Democrats and Republicans. "I don't want to pit Red America against Blue America," he said. "I want to be the president of the United States of America." Even when Obama vowed to take Republicans "head-on" if they begin "fear-mongering," he was quick to get beyond simple GOP-bashing and sound a broader theme appealing to voters fatigued with both parties. "I believe the American people are tired of fear and of distractions," he said.

Obama has had modest success in winning over Republicans. The campaign boasts that 268 registered Republicans in Iowa and 68 in New Hampshire had broken with the party and were supporting Obama. His camp puts these crossover supporters in touch with each other through informal "Republicans for Obama" e-mail groups, in hopes that they will persuade family and friends to join them.

But what about the Clinton camp's charge that Obama, for all his outreach, wouldn't hold up to GOP attacks? Obama's aides say he has already survived something more formidable: Clinton's attacks. "They think they are the toughest campaign on the block," says Plouffe. "And we seem to be handling them just fine."

At the same time, Clinton, concerned about coming across as too tough, has begun to promote her softer side—trying to show that when she isn't body-slamming Republicans, she, too, is trying to win them over. "The theory of Hillary is much more polarizing than the reality of Hillary," says Bill Galston, a former Bill Clinton policy adviser now with the Brookings Institution. "She's demonstrated that in the Senate." When she first ran for the Senate, her aides advised her to avoid campaigning in conservative upstate New York, which they considered a waste of time. Instead, she ran hard and cleaned up in solid GOP districts. NEWSWEEK has learned that Bill Clinton has urged his wife to play up that appeal with TV ads quoting conservatives who voted for Hillary. Clinton's aides have decided this isn't the time for such an ad.

Voters still haven't figured out whom they want to win. Polls paint a confusing picture. Among Democrats nationwide, Clinton holds a big lead over Obama and is still perceived as the candidate most likely to win in November. But that advantage evaporates when the two are matched up against leading Republicans. In surveys of voters from both parties, Clinton has a narrow, four-point lead over Rudy Giuliani in a recent NEWSWEEK POLL; Obama has a three-point lead. But against other Republicans, Obama comes out ahead, leading Mitt Romney by 16 and Fred Thompson by 13, compared with four points for Clinton in both scenarios.

One name rarely figures in the Obama and Clinton strategy: John Edwards. Both campaigns seem to believe his effort will fade. "I don't spend a lot of time thinking about Edwards," a Clinton adviser, who didn't want to be named discussing strategy, says. That could be a mistake. Edwards, who came in second in Iowa in 2004, is polling a close third in the state. By focusing on each other, Obama and Clinton risk missing a late Edwards surge that could remake the conventional wisdom of who looks like a winner. After all, it's tough to argue you're "electable" if your name isn't on the ballot in November.

With Eleanor Clift and Holly Bailey

© 2007