Dubuque’s Got the ‘Joe Mo’!

Should Clinton lose Iowa, the door might open for second-tier candidates to start getting competitive.

By Jonathan Alter | NEWSWEEK

Updated: 3:40 p.m. ET Dec 1, 2007

From the magazine issue dated Dec 10, 2007

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Discuss

Posted By: chowder @ 12/23/2007 10:24:42 AM

Comment: I agree with Soonerthought in regards to Joe Biden being ignored by the media. It is criminal and I have written countless letters to cable news media, mainstream networks and newspapers pleading with them to give fair coverage to the candidates. CNN would be comical concerning their favoritism in the debates if the presidency of the United States wasn't on the line! So thank you Jonathan for looking past the popularity contest in the Democratic arena. The second tier candidates are far, far more ready and experienced for office than the top tier, especially Obama. I just don't understand what Iowans are thinkg. MoJoe.
Posted By: marytnurse @ 12/14/2007 11:52:13 AM

Comment: I'm still caucusing for the one with the wisdom, true leadership in the face of adverse consequences personally on Iraq, ethical and moral integrity, strength of character, and the true willingness to unite rather than further divide this nation so split by the last 30 or so years of politicians such as is the second tier and baseless Clinton. But thanks for the intelligent read!!! All our greatest presidents have been 'inexperienced' Washintgon insiders. Barack Obama '08 begins here in Iowa.
Posted By: Soonerthought @ 12/05/2007 10:52:45 PM

Comment: Thanks Jonathan, for giving Sen. Biden his due. The lack of attention paid to this esteemed senator by the media is almost criminal. Biden is the best candidate we have. Go Joe!
Posted By: Soonerthought @ 12/05/2007 10:52:23 PM

Comment: Thanks Jonathan, for giving Sen. Biden his due. The lack of attention paid to this esteemed senator by the media is almost criminal. Biden is the best candidate we have. Go Joe!
Posted By: Gianni @ 12/03/2007 6:08:01 PM

Comment: I agree with Sue C. He has the experience. Wisdom is a good description. If the media would focus a little more on him instead of the presumed "front runners" the only real choice would become clear.
Posted By: Sue C. @ 12/03/2007 5:10:57 PM

Comment: Biden is my choice - he has been right on Iraq, Pakistan. He has met the international leaders and knows the risks. How many times have we heard " Joe is Right" during debates. His 7 minutes per debate have showed more wisdom and flat out common sense than all others put together.
Posted By: eddiewhere @ 12/03/2007 3:28:09 PM

Comment: I like what I am hearing from Joe Biden, he seems to understand that people are tired of division, they just want an honest President that is on their side, that will stand with them and find solutions for the very serious issues this country faces; a man or women who can bring UNIFICATION. The race for American President is so unique in that voters are really voting on the personality more than substance. Inotherwords, if people do not trust or like a candidate, they will reject him/her at the polls regardless of their ideas.
Posted By: Braes @ 12/03/2007 3:08:35 PM

Comment: Biden is solid. Hillary is spin. Obama I like but do not believe He is at the level of a Biden or Dodd. None of them sickens me like a Bush. I will support my party's nominee be it a yellow dog. Oh and that Edwards fellow, go get another haircut. Richardson's leadership as governor has New Mexico in the bottom tier of many measurements. Yes, Biden is a good and wise candidate. Any of the D's is prefferable to the Neo Con party.
Posted By: Gianni @ 12/03/2007 2:52:08 PM

Comment: C'mon people. Joe Biden is clearly the best choice of the democrats. He is wise, experienced, shrewed and rationale. Obama nees more experience. Clinton is too polarizing. Edwards is hard to trust. The independents love Joe Biden and even the republicans can't find anything bad to say about him. If you're talking both electability and qualifications, he is the one. I hope everyone realizes it in time. Gianni
Posted By: Sandy480 @ 12/03/2007 8:52:32 AM

Comment: GO JOE!!!! It's about time voters woke up and looked at who is actually PREPARED to take on the
Presidency, instead of who "LOOKS" good on TV, or some other inane criteria! But no one ever understimated the stupidity of the American Electorate.........
Sandy480
Posted By: miked98 @ 12/02/2007 11:40:09 PM

Comment: Mr. Alter, if you believe Joe Biden has a shot, there's a bridge is Brooklyn you might be interested in buying. The Democratic nomination is a two-horse race: Obama and Hillary. They agree far more than they differ on policy. But Obama offers Democrats a chance to win next November. I saw Obama speak in Boston tonight, and I've rarely seen his energy level higher.
Posted By: Willie Wingspan @ 12/02/2007 9:48:02 PM

Comment: If Hillary wins in Iowa the Republicans will rejoice--she is not electable. Period. 30 some odd years of Bush/Clinton is about to be rejected. For intellect and ability to bring conciliation--Obama,, for experience, Richardson, all around (if he hadn't been so stupid to have a $400 hair- cut), like-ability Edwards, Dodd, OK and the "elf for Truth--Hillary--not a chance. Democrats--use logic for once--please!
Posted By: Rachel05 @ 12/02/2007 3:08:00 PM

Comment: An Obama win in Iowa would help Biden just because there would still be a race. If Clinton wins there, it would take a miracle for anyone else to take the nomination. Biden has generated some enthusiastic support in Iowa with his extensive knowledge, esp on foreign policy, but I think he'd blow up his own candidacy before he got through the nominating process. Did you catch the reaction yesterday when Biden said to Obama that as president "I'd be happy to make you head of the Civil Rights Division"? Give me a break.
Posted By: JoeinOH @ 12/02/2007 1:00:09 PM

Comment: Unlike John Kerry and John Edwards in 2004, I seriously doubt that Senator Biden or Senator Dodd will jump into the top-tier of Democratic candidates in Iowa or any time thereafter. It now appears that a narrow loss by Senator Clinton to Senator Obama in Iowa, and an Edwards withdrawal if he finishes third or worse, will simply set up a showdown in New Hampshire between the two frontrunners. A Clinton win in Iowa, on the other hand, will likely lead to victory in New Hampshire and be followed by a short and easy road to her nomination like those previously enjoyed by Al Gore in 2000 and, ultimately, by John Kerry in 2004.

Only an outright win by Edwards in Iowa, a third-place finish for Clinton, or an unexpected surge by Governor Bill Richardson into one of the top three spots--Richardson has been running a distant fourth in Iowa--could change the two most likely scenarios set forth above. Unlike December of 2003, when Iowa Democrats took another look at second-trier candidates like Kerry and Edwards as an alternative to Howard Dean (who was clearly not ready for prime time) and Dick Gephardt (another 60-something congressional warhorse, like Biden and Dodd, running for president a second time), there is no compelling reason for them to do so in December of 2007. Clinton has surivived (and sometimes thrived) in the national media spotlight since 1992 and she is hardly an old Senate warhorse after only 7 years, Obama has held up well under media scrutiny and remains the freshest face in the Democratic field. Among the viable second-tier candidates, only Richardson really combines both experience and a fresh face for 2008.

My money is still on Clinton to win the Democatic nomination in 2008. Her popularly and broad institutional support within the party should be too much for Obama to overcome. The question is whether her road to the nomination is short and relatively easy like it was for Al Gore or John Kerry, or whether it will be a long, hard road like it was for Walter Mondale in 1984. As for Richardson, he is obviously good vice-presidential timber and could also be considered for a top cabinet post if the DEmoctars win in 2008. Biden and Dodd could be considered for Secretary of State and Secretary of Treasury or Commerce, respectively.
- Posted By: Vonia @ 12/03/2007 2:02:36 PM
  
  Comment: Why is it that people are now talking about the possibility of a Hillary Clinton loss? I thought that she was supposed to be the front-runner! If that is really true, then she should win Iowa, shouldn't she.
  
  Personally, I think that Barack Obama and John Edwards have just as much a chance of winning the Democratic nomination as she does!
Posted By: JoeinOH @ 12/02/2007 11:36:35 AM

Comment: Unlike John Kerry and John Edwards in 2004, it is difficult to see either Senator Biden or Senator Dodd surging into the top-tier in the remaining weeks before the Iowa Caucuses or afterwards. Early 2004 frontrunner Howard Dean was not ready for prime time and early Iowa frontrunner Dick Gephardt was a 60-something congressional warhorse just like Biden and Dodd are today. Those facts (plus good organization and financing) caused Iowa Democrats to take a second look at Kerry and Edwards, who both surged to first and seocnd place finishes in the Caucuses. (Republican operatives and conservative commentators salivating about the prospect of running against Dean as a latter-day McGovern didn't help him either).

Hillary Clinton is clearly no Howard Dean, she has survived (if not always thrived) in the national media spotlight since 1992. Senator Obama is too new on the national scene and too inexperienced. Biden and Dodd, like Gephardt in 2004, are old warhorses taking one last lap round the presidential track. Governor Richardson is experienced, remains a fresh-face, and runs fourth in Iowa in some polls. He could conceivably surge into the top-tier if Clinton stumbles in Iowa by losing to Obama, and if Edwards drops out.

Still, my guess is that, like former Vice-President Walter Mondale in 1984, Clinton will ultimately win the Democratic nomination. The road to that nomination will just be much bumpier, at least in the beginning, than she anticipated.
Posted By: theseventen @ 12/02/2007 11:31:18 AM

Comment: This is a good article, Mr. Alter. I had written about this exact same thing back in October about why the second-tier candidates need Obama to win Iowa. You can read that post here: http://www.theseventen.com/2007/10/obama-why-dark-horses-need-him.html
I also predicted that the three tickets out of Iowa will go to Clinton, Obama, and the winner of the Richardson/Biden/Dodd race. Seeing that Edwards likely won't win Iowa even though he NEEDS to win it, he will forfeit the "third" ticket out of Iowa and give it to Richardson, Biden, or Dodd. I believe that of the three, Biden is the best positioned. I wrote more about that here: http://www.theseventen.com/2007/11/current-state-of-affairs-d.html
Posted By: bucko @ 12/02/2007 10:46:24 AM

Comment: SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON IS GOING TO MAKE A GREAT PRESIDENT.
Posted By: bucko @ 12/02/2007 10:45:09 AM

Comment: SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON IS GOING TO MAKE A GREAT PRESIDENT.
Posted By: jnyuwa @ 12/02/2007 10:30:59 AM

Comment: This article is pure nonsense pontifications. Clinton is already way ahead nationally, A loss in Iowa will not matter. How comes the article did not talk about nominees who lost Aiowa, but went ahead to win?
Posted By: pef281 @ 12/02/2007 9:45:33 AM

Comment: Only a fishbowl media personality from DC like the naval-gazing Alter would think that Joe Biden or Chris Dodd have any chance in the presidential race. Theirs, like Dennis Kucinich is the ego race - perpetual runs for the presidency only for the purpose of confirming their own opinions that they are the right man for the job. Jonathan Alter proves that he, like so many of his fellow blonde journalists have little idea of what reality is like for Americans outside of Washington and think the whole planet revolves around their perception of it.
- Posted By: sundancepdx @ 12/02/2007 8:47:39 PM
  
  Comment: thank you...exactly what I was thinking, hopefully no one pays much attention anymore.
- Posted By: sundancepdx @ 12/02/2007 8:44:52 PM
  
  Comment: thank you...they live in their own world, and hopefully no one takes them seriously anymore.
Posted By: JackRussellTerror @ 12/02/2007 9:37:13 AM

Comment: Bill Richardson is being lumped in with the white guys? I thought he was hispanic?
Posted By: JackRussellTerror @ 12/02/2007 9:36:21 AM

Comment: Bill Richardson is white? OMG who would have guessed it .. i thought the dud was hispanic.