‘Irritable Centrism’

In the aftermath of elections such as these, a great deal has been written to the effect that America's comfortable suburbanites are simply moving left along the political spectrum, abandoning their red loyalties for blue ones. I think that's the wrong way to look at it. I think these big suburban counties are the national capitals of irritable centrism. They are feeling their way toward a different, socially more tolerant brand of politics than the one they have endorsed in the past. They are a long distance from being comfortable with it. But what they react against most strongly is any candidate on either side who insists on turning up the volume on issues they don't particularly want to hear about.

This ought to be as much of a warning to Democrats as it is to Republicans. The irritable centrists of suburbia remain fundamentally conservative, closely tied to business and its values, loyal to the chamber of commerce and the Rotary Club (even if they don't go there as often as they once did). It is easy to alienate them from the left, just as it is easy to alienate them from the right. A class-based populist campaign against the predations of corporate America is as unlikely to succeed in Johnson County, Kan., or Arapahoe County, Colo., as an unyielding social-right campaign against immigration, abortion or gay marriage.

What seems undeniable is that these suburbs are the places where statewide elections are won these days, whether the prize is a governorship or the presidency of the United States. The suburbs are nervous. They sense where the country is going, but they want to go there at their own pace, and without any militant marching orders. Candidates who understand this will have a crucial advantage—in 2008 and probably for quite a few years after that.

Alan Ehrenhalt is executive editor of Governing magazine, and author of "The United States of Ambition" and "The Lost City".

© 2007