The Oprah Road Show

The moment was Oprah's constant refrain—both for Obama and Iowa's voters. "I know you hear people say that he should take a gradual approach to presidential leadership," she said in Cedar Rapids. "But I say this: no one is God. No one is God. We don't know what the future holds. So we must respond to the pressures of history when the moment strikes, and I do believe the moment is now. The moment is now."

As the campaigning wore on, Oprah seemed to enjoy her own moment more. Where she was more scripted and stiff at the first stop, she loosened up at the second. She picked up the microphone and walked around the podium to welcome Obama. She and Michelle Obama playfully punched each other when the candidate heaped praise on his wife. And when Obama promised to end not just the war in Iraq but "the mindset that got us into war in the first place," Oprah gave two thumbs up and cheered with the rest of the crowd.

Was it all good news for Obama? Not entirely. Some of the 18,500-strong crowd began to trickle out of the Hy-Vee Hall in Des Moines once he started talking. That was reminiscent of Bill Clinton's first campaign swing with Hillary over the summer, although the crowd that day was a fraction of the size. Still, it confirmed the notion that some Iowans were more interested in the TV star than the Illinois senator.

Yet the lasting value to Obama's campaign may not be Oprah's message or the minds she might have swayed. The value was the unique chance to test and expand Obama's organization. His Iowa staff wanted to know who would show up to the events, as well as who wouldn't. In political jargon, what was the flake rate of those who promised to come, but failed to turn up? If they flaked out, why did they flake? What else does the campaign need to do to seal the deal? 

Four years ago, another Internet-driven Washington outsider got another big endorsement. When Howard Dean won Al Gore's nod in late 2003, the media swooned en masse. But Dean never checked out how flakey his Iowa support was, and his staff were shocked that supposedly committed Iowans were no-shows on caucus night.

For now at least, Obama's supporters seem to be more solid: with 23,000 tickets issued, a respectable 18,500 people showed up for the Des Moines event. Oprah's weekend may be a poor guide to the caucus results in early January. But it does suggest that, in terms of organization, Obama's Iowa campaign is unlikely to end with a scream.

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