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The Seibu Lions set only one ground rule for interviewing their superstar shortstop Kazuo Matsui: don't ask him whether he wants to come to the United States to become the next Ichiro. In the wake of the amazing success of Seattle's expatriate right fielder, the lords of Japanese baseball are more than a little worried about their all-stars' becoming our all-stars.
But Matsui, breathing heavily in the Seibu Dome dugout after a workout, has no qualms about addressing the subject. He explains that in 2001, Japanese pro-baseball players--like their fans--are obsessive viewers of Seattle Mariners baseball games broadcast almost daily. "We have a big TV set and watch the games constantly," he says. Matsui recalls vividly the time he faced Pedro Martinez in an exhibition game, and he'd like another shot at him. Will he seek that opportunity next year, joining Ichiro, Hideo Nomo, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Tsuyoshi Shinjo in what threatens to be a Pacific airlift of prime baseball talent? "After the season I will think about it," he says carefully. Translation of this translation: he's outta there.
If Matsui arrives, he'll have company. In the wake of Ichiro's emphatic proof that Japanese hitters can excel in the majors, "the interest [in them] has increased dramatically," says Bill Stoneman, the Anaheim Angels' general manager. American scouts in unprecedented numbers are combing not only professional parks but high-school matches, seeking the next Ichiro and also bargain-priced role players like Shinjo, a merely competent Hanshin Tigers outfielder who has provided some key hits this year for the Mets. Japanese players figure that if Shinjo can do it, they can, too. Shinjo himself tells ex-colleagues that the water's fine. "I tell them if they're brave enough, they can be successful here."
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The main obstacle to any player's making the jump is the system that binds players to their teams. There are two escape routes. Free-agency kicks in after nine years, but waiting this out is costly, because it means resisting lucrative long-term contracts. The other option is to ask your home club to post you on a list of players available for sale to the Bigs. By "posting" Ichiro, the Blue Waves were able to collect $13 million.
The Japanese baseball establishment won't allow a wholesale exodus of its luminaries to the United States. But stateside demand, and the eagerness of Japanese owners to cash in, makes it inevitable that some major-league teams will nab some willing Japanese all-stars. Here are the leading candidates for a future Rookie of the Year award.
Kazuhisa Ishii. The most likely import is a 27-year-old lefty starter who throws in the mid-90s and has been a consistent Central League ace. Mariners scout Ted Heid has compared him to Mike Hampton. Though not a free agent until 2002, he's expressed his desire to play in the majors next season. Ishii spent some time this spring working out in California; Anaheim reliever and Japanese import Shigetoshi Hasegawa remarked that if Ishii joined the team, he'd instantly be the No. 1 or No. 2 starter. And Ishii's boss, Swallows owner Yoshikazu Tagiku, has said he wouldn't stand in the way. (He would, presumably, accept a big check for this concession, as the Blue Waves did for Ichiro.) Another Ichiro parallel: like the Mariners' star, Ishii married a popular TV newscaster a few years his senior.
Kazuo Matsui. The 25-year-old "Barry Larkin of Japan" has matinee-idol good looks, an appealing smile and Ichiro-like speed--from home to first in 3.5 seconds. The switch-hitting shortstop's batting average has improved every year, and he's got some pop. Though he won't be a free agent until 2003, he is clearly considering a request for posting for the coming year, and the Seibu owner has said he will accede to his superstar's wishes. Watch for a bidding war.
Hideki Matsui. Mets manager Bobby Valentine's face lights up at the mention of the Yomiuri Giants outfielder. "He's a great player," he says, sighing--the reigning star on the unofficial national team of Japan (they're like the Yankees, only almost no one hates them). The last remaining question mark about Japanese pros is whether a power hitter can make it here. Note that the Central League's current home-run leader is gaijin Tuffy Rhodes, who managed to go yard only 13 times in 590 MLB at-bats. Scouts believe, though, that "Godzilla" Matsui could do it here. But will the Giants let him go? He knows his departure would be a blow to national pride but this year he refused to sign a lucrative long-term contract, opting instead for a one-year pact that keeps him on track for 2002 free agency. Get ready for Godzilla.
Norihiro Nakamura. Now that Ichiro is gone, Nakamura is the resident superstar in the Pacific League. (Last year he hit more dingers than his teammate Tuffy Rhodes.) And the 28-year-old third baseman will be a free agent after next year. Until recently he was considered a cinch to come to the United States. but this season the lowly Osaka-based Kintetsu Buffaloes have uncharacteristically jumped to the league lead. Still, most observers think Nakamura will wind up here.
Tadahito Iguchi. Though the 26-year-old Fukuoka Daiei Hawks shortstop hasn't yet fulfilled his early promise (a star of the 1996 Japanese Olympic team, he hit six home runs in his first professional game), seasoned observers consider him a good example of the type of player who could succeed in America: speedy, sure-handed and hustling. This year has been his best, with a respectable .271 batting average (his previous high was .247) and a league-leading 36 stolen bases. Since Iguchi went to college, his free-agency clock began ticking late. But intense major-league interest might lead the Hawks to post him.
Yoshitomo Tani. Can the Blue Waves stand to lose another speedy outfielder? The 28-year-old is no superstar, but he is a consistent hitter and constant stolen-base threat. He's not an imminent free agent, but besides his baseball skills, Tani is known for dating Ryoko Tamura, a gold-medalist judo champ. She's more famous than he is, so what better way to step out of her shadow than come to America in a quest to be the Next Ichiro?
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