The ‘Hot or Not’ Solution

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  • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/17/2007 10:53:41 PM

    misterharban:
    There is strong evidence that a switch to Range Voting would lead to a much larger improvement in our democracy than the elimination of election fraud. See: http://rangevoting.org/RelImport.html

    And I've done exit polling in Beaumont, Texas. Average middle Americans had no problem with it. In fact it experimentally leads to fewer spoiled ballots than our current voting system. So in some sense, voters find it easier to use, not harder.

    tomruen:
    You have it completely backward. Strategic voters are also rewarded in IRV and other systems, and in fact the result is even _worse_. This issue is given rigorous consideration by Poundstone and proponents of Range Voting. See http://rangevoting.org/StratHonMix.html

    The simple fact is that IRV is one of the worst voting methods, according to extensive Bayesian regret calculations by Princeton math Ph.D. Warren D. Smith (and those same metrics show Range Voting to be effectively the best).

    Range Voting is also cheaper/easier to administer and count, and does not incentivize the adoption of fraud-prone electronic voting machines like IRV does. And it can be counted in precincts, whereas IRV requires central counting, which is another open invitation to a central fraud conspiracy, and a loss of transparency.

    Range Voting is just a hands down radically better system than other methods that have been proposed. It's high time this simple and brilliant reform came to light.

    • Posted By: tomruen @ 12/18/2007 12:39:56 AM

      Brokenladder - spoken like a true convert who has never set foot into a caucus hall. There's no power for finding a majority choice in a range election, no room for iterations of opinions. It's one blind or not-so-blind count and take it or leave it. Not very enlightening....

      • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:58:15 AM

        tomruen: I agree that people would reach better more informed decisions if they had to sit around and debate before voting. That may be one benefit of traditional runoff elections, where voters have a chance to re-evaluate the two candidates who make it to the final round. But that decrease in voter ignorance cannot make up for the dastardly things that a runoff can do (just look at the last French election, in which Bayrou certainly would have beaten Royal _and_ Sarkozy head-to-head. Also, IRV and every other "single shot" voting method has this problem. The key is for voters to take their time and research the candidates well, if they really care enough to vote. If they want to vote out of ignorance, they will pay the price for that by possibly helping to elect a sub-optimal candidate.

        • Posted By: tomruen @ 12/18/2007 2:54:53 PM

          Brokenladder, I won't disagree runoffs are a brute power struggle at best, and IRV offers nothing good only speeds the elimination process. If I had a chance to "reform" iterative runoffs, I'd change the process at the end - say when all the candidates are above 20% (or whatever), perform a Condorcet head-to-head process with no more elimination.

          Endorsement elections often require 60%, so a Condorcet process could also require 60% victory against all opponents or there'd be no winner.

          Anyway, I'm content with Plurality, horror and all for single-winner elections - rarely do I vote in plurality without knowing the results - whether I'm supporting a nobel loser or a compromise. STV and multimember districts is where the real action lies for reform.

    • Posted By: dewcooper @ 12/18/2007 11:38:46 AM

      Range voting makess the ridiculus assumption that people would actually vote for more than one candidate. If I want Candidate A to win, regardless of the number of candidates running, I will rate A at the top and the rest at the bottom, because I want him to WIN and the rest to lose (not win for the PC crowd). Why gamble with rating A any lower?

      Range voting also allows for the 'throw away' vote. I can vote a 5 for A, but wouldn't it be hilarious if C won? So I give C a 4. After all, my original vote counts, and so does my second, which was just a joke.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 2:21:23 PM

    BubbaDownSouth said: "One person, one vote and no middleman. Most votes win.
    Third party candidates are just that, candidates, not spoilers." No, um, third party candidates ARE spoilers, assuming they are seen as similar (in platform) to another candidate. Saying otherwise just means you haven't thought about it, because it isn't complicated..

  • Posted By: BubbaDownSouth @ 12/18/2007 2:15:06 PM

    I would settle for a national popular vote for President and Vice President.
    Get rid of the Electoral College for Presidential elections.
    We elect Governors, Senators and Congressmen by popular vote. We should do the same with Presidents.
    One person, one vote and no middleman. Most votes win.
    Third party candidates are just that, candidates, not spoilers.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 2:09:01 PM

    tkharmonic: it is a mathematical consequence of the way votes are tabulated here that people gain an advantage by clustering into two parties. Fixing this with a new voting system will allow for more parties. (we have more parties here, they just don't get many of their candidates elected)

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 2:05:48 PM

    brokenladder said: "Well, then you have to ask yourself, why are they rating one Dem higher than the other? To help their favorite Dem beat the other Dem, right?"

    No, because, by offering them a Range ballot (rather than, say, an approval ballot) you are ASKING them to rate the candidates relative to one another. And in trying to honestly do what they are asked, they hurt the candidate that has a chance of winning. EXACTLY like in our current system.

    This is not complicated. I think this Warren fellow you speak of has thrown so much complex looking math at you you are blinded to a very simple thing.

    Isn't he the guy who applied for a patent on a computer made of dna? Can you say "crackpot"?

  • Posted By: jacksmith @ 12/17/2007 9:06:03 PM

    Technically speaking our disgraceful voting system is very easy, and relatively inexpensive to fix. Though no expense should be considered to much to assure our democracy. And the integrity of each of our votes.

    One way to fix it is for everyone to cast a paper ballot like they do in Germany that is hand counted by civil servants over an approximately two week period. Preliminary election results are called the night of the election based on exit polling. The Germans have shown this method to be highly accurate, and relatively secure.

    Of course in the US exit polling does not work well. And is used to assist in the commission of massive voting fraud. As was done in our past two national elections. In the US we use the highly accurate exit polling to determine how many pre-punched fraudulent votes need to be substituted for legitimate votes for the loosing party to win.

    The other way is to use electronic means to produce, and mark a ballot. But regardless of what electronic system is used. It is critical that the end product be the creation of a paper ballot that can be easily reviewed by the voter before that paper ballot is cast by the voter. So that the voter can change, or discard that ballot if it was not marked as they wanted to vote. Ideally the paper ballot would be hand counted as in the German example above.

    If the paper ballot is machine counted, then random hand counting of a representative number of each batch of votes must be done to assure the accuracy of the electronic totals. Plus very careful exit polling. If there is any discrepancy, all paper ballots should be counted by hand. And electronic equipment, and software checked for failures. 1 of 2

    • Posted By: tkharmonic @ 12/18/2007 2:01:15 PM

      Please forgive me, but I don't really understand why with a population the size of ours we are still using a two or three party system.

      Why can we not have a multi-party system similar to what they use in Germany, Canada, France and other countries?

      I'm not being sarcastic, I honestly don't understand why would that not work here in the US?

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 1:56:34 PM

    brokenladder: "If a voter knows nothing about the candidates, then his vote would be random under _any_ system."

    Not talking about knowing about the candidates, talking about knowing how others will vote...polls information. Very different thing, and you know that.

    The more you know about how others will vote, the better you will do in Range Voting. Much more so than in better systems. And knowing how others will vote is complicated, especially when those "others" are trying to guess how you are going to vote.

  • Posted By: tiffsthoughts @ 12/17/2007 11:29:50 PM

    First it is interesting that the article refers to the 2000 election rather than a the 1992 or 1996 election where Peroit most likely influenced the outcome of the election. More importantly, the range voting seems to over simplify the nature of American politics by pretty eliminating the power of third party candidates. What influence would they have in a system where one could vote for them but also vote for a viable candidate. What insentive would major party candidates have to move their positions towards that of a third party candidate if they could still receive a "4" instead of a "5"?

    • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:47:16 PM

      tiffsthoughts: you're not getting it. With Range Voting, major party candidates wouldn't _have_ to move their positions more toward a third party. They'd have to move them more toward the will of the people, and third parties could actually _win_ because you'd never have to fear voting for your favorite candidate, regardless of his party. Range Voting is enormously helpful for third parties. Get on the Range Voting web site and read about the nursery effect.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 2:37:01 AM

    brokenladder said: If they want to vote out of ignorance, they will pay the price for that by possibly helping to elect a sub-optimal candidate."

    Umm, won't society as a whole pay the price for errors of an individual? You say that as if "that'll teach him not to do that again".

    Is this supposedly a benefit of Range Voting that if the voter hasn't done his homework, he'll basically vote randomly? Because that's true. Voters who haven't followed the polls closely are not going to be sure whether their votes will help or hurt their cause.

    • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:44:50 PM

      cat said: "Is this supposedly a benefit of Range Voting that if the voter hasn't done his homework, he'll basically vote randomly? Because that's true. Voters who haven't followed the polls closely are not going to be sure whether their votes will help or hurt their cause."

      My response: If a voter knows nothing about the candidates, then his vote would be random under _any_ system. But Warren Smith's simulations included an ignorance factor as one of the tunable parameters; and Range Voting still beat the other voting methods, no matter how he tuned that ignorance factor. So Range Voting is more resistant to the ignorance-induced randomness than the other methods.

      And if a voter knows how he feels, but hasn't looked at the polls, then an honest Range vote won't hurt him, as compared to not voting at all. It may not help him as much as if he had strategically exagerrated, but it won't hurt him. With methods such as IRV, it can actually make the result worse for you to show up and cast a sincere vote. Stew on that paradox.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 2:19:51 AM

    brokenladder said: "It's not vote splitting because if 51% of the voters are Democrats, let's say, and 100 Democrats run, and 1 Republican runs, there's no reason that the Republican must automatically win."

    That is a weird contrived case. 100 Democrats and 1 Republican? What? Anyway, the Repulican wouldn't NECESSARILY win, but he'd have a hell of an advantage, unless all the Democrats were in a very unlikely agreement.

    Regardless, I gave a basic REAL WORLD case, the same one mentioned in the article .... the 2000 election. If it was Range, what would have happened? It seems downright obvious that with Range, adding Nader to the race would push Gore's average downward, significantly.

    The effect is strong enough that we would be stuck with a two party system as people try to avoid that sort of splitting.

    Can you really not see this?

    • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:40:06 PM

      cat,

      My example was contrived _in your favor_. I intentionally used an enormous amount of Democrats to exaggerate the vote-splitting problem. The point is that your example relies on the idea that Dem voters may give their favorite of the Dems a "10", and a lower score to the other Dem - and if they all do this, then the Republican could conceivably win. Well, then you have to ask yourself, why are they rating one Dem higher than the other? To help their favorite Dem beat the other Dem, right? But if polls show a realistic chance that the Republican could win, then these voters are better off giving both Dems a high score, because it's more important to prevent electing the Republican than to try to get one's favorite Democrat. It's an issue of what is important to voters, and Range Voting lets them express that. In this sense, it does eliminate the vote splitting problem. And it definitely does a better job than more expensive complex and problematic methods, namely IRV.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 1:32:32 PM

    brokenladder: can you point me to something that shows that academics consider this fact?

    Personally, I agree with your other comment (that fixing the method is a bigger issue than fraud), and I really wish Gore had won, but I think dwelling on the possible vote fraud isn't helping your cause.

  • Posted By: misterharban @ 12/18/2007 8:28:50 AM

    For all the sour grapes about the so called unintended outcomes resulting from vote splitting, I am under the distinct impression that the electorate has voiced more concerns in the last two elections about perceived misdeeds by one party or the other with regard to voting procedures and vote tallying than with what we do with the numbers once we get them. Before any system will work, the voters must be confident that no one, either through cupidity or incompetence, will be able to distort the system. Based on the lack of confidence expressed in outcomes of the last two elections, I cannot imagine that adding another layer of calculations or relying on exit polls will, in any way, increase voter confidence. If we believe that someone fixed the outcome of the last two elections, consider the permutations for imagining fraud with more layers of calculations or relying on pollsters who are trusted less than used car salesmen.

    Nader, Perot and Wallace were all essentially products of a two party system where neither party adequately addressed the concerns of some significant part of the electorate. It seems to me that as time has passed, the parties have become more and more strident and, as a consequence, more likely to totally alienate groups outside the so called party bases. Range voting would certainly be attractive to the two main parties because it would allow the establishments in both parties to further ignore the constituencies which have, in the past, been the basis for third party candidacies.

    The range voting proposed in this article is no more than sleight of hand to marginalize the only tool that voters disenfranchised by the two established parties currently have to express their disgust for the poor choices the parties offer up. The authors could have saved a lot of ink by simply proposing to eliminate third party candidates. I don???t like third party candidates. But more and more voters are being disenfranchised by both Republicans and Democrats who seem concerned only with satisfying the needs of their core constituencies and not reaching out to those outside that narrow group.

    To both Republicans and Democrats who are concerned that our method of counting votes is the reason they are not succeeding, I would suggest that they try something really radical. Try to give us good quality choices. The fact that the Democrats could not find someone capable of beating George Bush was much more a reflection of the poor quality of candidates from both parties than it was from our election process.

    • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:22:09 PM

      Many complain that there's no point in upgrading the voting method until we can ensure an accurate vote count. But evidence overwhelmingly says that our voting method causes a bigger anti-democratic effect than current levels of fraud. So fixing the voting method is the more pressing issue.

  • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:15:36 PM

    Reality: Gore won the election by a considerable margin, but election fraud in key states caused him to "lose". This, combined with the vote splitting flaw in our archaic voting method, caused Gore to "lose", even though he actually won. There is no credible doubt about the fraud. It's considered a point of fact by academics who've studied it.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 1:15:15 PM

    misterharban said: "The problem lies not in how we select the winner, but how we select the nominees."

    With a system that allows third party candidates without screwing everything else up, we wouldn't need nominees. The reason we have primaries is that parties know they would lose if all their candidates were on the ballot (due to vote splitting), so they eliminate them on an earlier round. This is why we have a two party duopoly, and why politics is so polarized. This is a big, big problem.

    With a good system, you can put them all on the ballot. Unfortunately Range voting doesn't solve this problem. Google "condorcet voting".

  • Posted By: ghostcommander @ 12/18/2007 12:37:22 PM

    If the Democrats do not find a way to certify the vote, then another election could be stolen.

    • Posted By: dewcooper @ 12/18/2007 1:00:35 PM

      Myth versus reality. Bush won the majority of votes in both elections once the final count was done. The votes were certified, the Dems just never accepted them.

  • Posted By: steven.g.randolph@verizon.net @ 12/18/2007 11:32:43 AM

    The current Electoral College system is evil and should be scrapped at once. The range voting system described in this article sounds like an ideal replacement. This country must never again elect an unmitigated disaster like George W. Bush to the nation's highest office.

    • Posted By: misterharban @ 12/18/2007 12:09:49 PM

      The way to never elect another unmitigated disaster like GW is to offer good alternatives. Rather than *** about how the system caused GW to get elected, consider the irony that the Democrats could not find a candidate capable of beating an unmitigated disaster. Both parties would do well in their nominating process to consider electability rather than ideological purity in selecting their candidates. The problem lies not in how we select the winner, but how we select the nominees.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 11:14:12 AM

    misterharban, what you are talking about is a different issue. I would argue that vote splitting, and the polarization it causes (i.e. the two party system), has much more serious consequenses than fraud. But regardless, it is just a different issue....what you are saying is like saying we shouldn't fix potholes before we stop people from being murdered. Two different things.

    • Posted By: misterharban @ 12/18/2007 12:01:51 PM

      The range system will not fix anything because it is too complex for the electorate to understand. In that very complexity, losers will always find reasons for their failure other than their own inadequacies. Where I come from, they say "you just can't fix stupid". The range system will simply allow stupid people to continue to vote stupidly, but in a different stupid way. People are unhappy with the electoral system and they think that politicians conspire to cheat when they count the votes. Range voting solves a problem that doesn't exist. The reasons that Bush lost when Perot ran and Gore lost when Nader ran was because their parties at the time put up weak candidates that failed to address the issues that the spoilers raised. We are watching a new election cycle where both parties seem to be favoring candidates that are innately incapable of reaching outside their own narrow political views. This is what is wrong with the system and not the way we tally the votes. The vote tallies in the past elections cited have, in fact, reflected the will of the electorate. They voted A, B or none of the above. Its time for our ossified political parties to respond to the people who are voting for none of the above and give us candidates which are more representative of the will of the people.

      Finally, it should be obvious to even the most casual reader of the article, that the ultimate result of range voting is to take away the opportunity for voters to meaningfully opt for a third party candidate, either in the context of sincerely wanting to see that person elected or in the context of telling the entrenched political parties that they want none of the above. After all the math is done, range voting simply filters the third party candidate into oblivion.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/17/2007 11:49:17 PM

    tiffsthoughts, they picked the 2000 election because a) it was more recent, and b) it was more clear that Nader through it to Bush, while the Perot situation is much more speculative.

    Anyway, here is shorter (and hppefully easier to understant) version of my complaint about Range voting being susceptable to vote splitting...

    Without Nader in the race, I might vote:
    Gore: 100
    Bush: 0

    With Nader in the race, I might vote:
    Nader: 100
    Gore: 75
    Bush: 0

    A Bush voter would have likely done this:

    Without Nader:
    Gore: 0
    Bush: 100

    With Nader:
    Nader: 0
    Gore: 0
    Bush: 100


    So with me and the Bush fan, it would have been a tie in the first case, but with Nader, Bush wins.

    How in the world is that not vote splitting?

    • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 1:48:09 AM

      It's not vote splitting because if 51% of the voters are Democrats, let's say, and 100 Democrats run, and 1 Republican runs, there's no reason that the Republican must automatically win. Democrats can simply give every Democrat the maximum score. If you feel that Democrat X is preferable to Democrat Y, so that you're willing to risk getting a Republican by lowering your score for Y, that's your choice. No voting method can stop you from purposely doing such a thing.

      • Posted By: dewcooper @ 12/18/2007 11:40:02 AM

        It is not vote splitting, but multiple voting by a single voter.

  • Posted By: dewcooper @ 12/18/2007 11:13:30 AM

    The basic theory of this discussion is flawed - we do not elect presidents by a MAJORITY vote (especially when you consider that a vast majority of Americans don't vote). While we may have a one person\one vote system, we elect delegates to the electorial college, who then cast their 'vote'. It is a mathematical probability that in a race with 3 or more candidates, no one will recieve a majority of the votes (Clinton didn't and neither did Bush). Even with the range system, if you look at the total 'range' possible, no candidate will recieve a perfect score, and may not even score above the median. What do you do if on a 1-5 scale, the 'winner' only scores a 2.3? We are back to the original discussion that they did not receive a 'majority'.

  • Posted By: catbutt @ 12/18/2007 12:55:24 AM

    tomruen, I am no fan of Range voting, but I don't understand the requirement for "majority choice". Especially if you mean the majority (more than 50%) have the candidate as their very first choice out of all people on the planet. Because I don't think that is very likely.

    Even if you are limiting it to mean "more than 50% of people have the candidate as their very first choice out of all people on the *ballot*....the more people on the ballot, the less likely that is. And the more likely for the vote to be distorted in weird ways by the presenc

    • Posted By: tomruen @ 12/18/2007 1:17:28 AM

      Instant Runoff voting, like a top-two runoff allows a voters to offer a final confirmation among the strongest two candidates, so a majority (of voters) can support the winner over the runner up. That's one step better than plurality. Nader and Perot candidates with only 5% or 18% can be harmlessly eliminated and that spoiler effect is gone. (It is a bit tricker for presidential elections, but could at least be a majority state-by-state.)

      • Posted By: brokenladder @ 12/18/2007 2:00:54 AM

        tomruen said: Instant Runoff voting, like a top-two runoff allows a voters to offer a final confirmation among the strongest two candidates, so a majority (of voters) can support the winner over the runner up.

        my response: Simply false. IRV can easily eliminate candidate Y early on, and then elect X, even though Y was preferred to X (and all other candidates) by a sizable majority.
        http://rangevoting.org/CoreSupp.html

        tomruen said: That's one step better than plurality.

        my response: But IRV also increases spoiled ballots by a factor of 7, and incentivizes the adoption of fraud-prone electronic voting machines, and must be centrally counted instead of counted in precincts and summed - meaning it's less transparent, and more susceptible to a central fraud conspiracy.

        Approval Voting, the simplest form of Range Voting, is radically simpler, and much better.

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