Time To Start Talking To Tehran

If none of the above works, of course, the next administration must be ready with a plan B. Today, the only fail-safe option Bush seems to favor is a military strike on Iran's atomic facilities. But this wouldn't offer a permanent solution to the Iranian nuclear problem or help stabilize Iraq or the Gulf (in fact, it would do just the opposite). A new backup plan is therefore needed, one that would help contain an empowered Iran and negate the impact of its nuclear weapons. Fortunately, crafting one will become easier as the danger from Iran intensifies. Should Tehran cross successive nuclear thresholds in defiance of its international obligations and the United Nations' mandates, its neighbors are likely to become more willing to participate in a robust containment policy. Europe and Japan, meanwhile—and even Russia and China—may finally agree to impose real sanctions.

If talks fail, the United States should also issue a set of public warnings—much clearer and less blustery than those offered by the Bush administration. The Islamic Republic will have to be told that any first use of its bombs would constitute a direct threat against the United States. In a similar vein, any transfer of Iran's nuclear material would be viewed as a danger to the United States itself—and Washington would respond accordingly. The next president should also quietly offer Iran's neighbors informal security guarantees to ease their nerves and make them less inclined to acquiesce to Iranian blackmail. Such a concerted strategy would help Washington deny Iran any diplomatic leverage while building a formidable wall around it.

Even then, diplomacy will remain crucial. Should Iran at any point signal that it's ready to come in from the cold and dismantle its nukes, the United States should be prepared to engage it. None of this will be easy. But improving on the Bush administration's woefully ineffective approach won't prove that difficult, either.

Maloney is a senior fellow at the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution and formerly served on the policy-planning staff of the State Department. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

© 2007