Annie, Don't Get Your Gun

Rather, the poor results for the legal gun runners provide yet another piece of evidence that the discretionary aspirational consumer is pooped. Despite what you might hear during Republican primary debates, very few people actually need a shotgun or a hunting weapon to get through the winter. Nowadays, most Americans buy fresh meat at stores like Kroger and rely on services like ADT to ward off hostile intruders. And well-made guns, which aren't cheap, last for several years. They don't need to be replaced every fall.

Cabela's and Gander Mountain stores are found in parts of the country where housing and job markets haven't been ravaged by subprime mortgages gone bad. And they're not in places where spending on discretionary goods is dependent on Wall Street bonuses. We've said it before, and we'll say it again: The subprime debacle is a symptom of the nation's economic challenges rather than a cause of them. Slowing growth, stagnant incomes, and rising inflation are taking a toll on the ability and desire of American consumers—at all income levels below plutocrat—to spend. That's why these companies' gruesome stock charts look like ski slopes. And that's why the stock of Vail Resorts, the leading player in another expensive, purely discretionary leisure pursuit, is off 30 percent since October.

© 2007