Thailand’s Juan Perón

That genie, for want of a better word, is populism. Thaksin won over the hinterland by offering benefits like better education and nearly free medical care. That remains a compelling formula in Thailand; most if not all of the 63 parties contesting seats in December embraced similar ideas. In past elections, says Bruton, voters merely expected a 500-baht bribe. "Now the electorate expects 500 baht plus a whole gift basket of stuff."

Thaksin, meanwhile, has been carefully plotting his comeback. Like Perón, who was able to return to Argentina after his former personal secretary, Héctor Càmpora, ran as a stand-in candidate and won the presidency, Thaksin countered the forced dissolution of his Thai Rak Thai party early in 2007 by helping to create a new group, the PPP, which absorbed most of his supporters. Now the PPP's anticipated victory could box the junta into a corner, relegitimize Thaksin and pave the way for his return. PPP leader Samak Sundaravej has said that should he become prime minister, he will lift the ban on Thai Rak Thai and welcome Thaksin home. In response, junta leaders have refused to rule out another coup.

Of course, the generals hope things never come to that. A leaked memorandum from top officers reportedly called on the military to do everything in its power to oppose Thaksin's proxy party, and the official election commission announced that it is investigating the campaign video as a possible rules violation. Analysts say the government could either ban the PPP outright or dispute the victories of enough individual legislators to prevent them from forming the next government, even if, as expected, the party wins a plurality of 180 to 200 seats.

Such heavy-handedness might further destabilize Thailand's future politics. That could suit the generals; before Thaksin came to power, Thailand was typically ruled by shaky short-term coalitions that left real power in the hands of senior bureaucrats and the military brass. To re-establish such an order, says one Thai scholar (who asked not to be named for fear of reprisal), the junta will hobble democracy "to the extent now seen in communist Vietnam or [authoritarian] Singapore."

Still, that's likely to produce more political unrest, exactly what Thailand doesn't need right now. Foreign direct investment has fallen by roughly half since early 2006, and in the latest expression of doubt about the country's future, a senior official with the Japan External Trade Organization said recently that Japan has nearly tripled its investment in Thailand's chief rival for foreign capital: Vietnam.

Thaksin has a formula to avoid all this and stabilize the country. In a recent interview, he called on junta leaders to support a coalition government even if it includes the PPP, exhorting the military to "bring back our unity, bring back our full democracy and let the people decide again." Of course, it seems clear who would eventually take charge under such a formula, despite Thaksin's protestations to the contrary. Indeed, were it up to the people of Thailand, not the generals, Thaksin would already be back in the country, contesting the election in person—rather than by remote control.

© 2007