Olympian Ambitions

If history's a guide, China's "home-field" advantage should lift its medal count by at least 15 percent. Home crowds and home cooking will certainly help, but China is counting far more on dramatic increases in spending for its Olympic sports programs. Liu's upset victory over the U.S. champion in Athens was viewed as the first thrust for Project 119, a nation-al program aimed at developing talent in Olympic sports that offer multiple medals—and in which Chinese athletes have had little success.

China's national sports program is, in many ways, the envy of its competitors, including the United States—and not simply because of its enormous talent pool. Elite athletes are identified as early as 6 years old and funneled through provincial and regional training schools up into the national teams. The once insular system is exhibiting some new worldliness. Not only are China's elite athletes competing outside the country's borders more frequently, but foreign coaches are being welcomed to fill the gaps in sports where China lacks expertise. Gymnastics coaching legend Bela Karolyi, who has faced Chinese teams for decades, says the changes make China even more formidable. "Their kids used to feel comfortable as long as they were hidden in their little hole," he says. "But as soon as they got out in the world, they fell apart. Being out there can only help them."

Having seen its advances in track and field and swimming during the 1990s halted by drug scandals, China has repeatedly pledged to embrace Olympic ideals and international standards of fair play.

There's good reason to take China's commitment to reform seriously—at least for these particular Games. The whole world will be watching, and companies paid unprecedented sums to be associated with Beijing 2008. Any scandal involving the Chinese would be a disaster, viewed at home as an unacceptable loss of face. Chinese supremacy in Olympic athletics is inevitable, if not this time, then soon. What isn't inevitable for China is the world's warm embrace. "We want to see our athletes win," says Xing Yue, of the International Studies Institute at Tsinghua University. "But our country's success after the Olympics because of the Olympics is even more important to the Chinese people." That's the gold that will carry the most luster at these Games.

With Quindlen Krovatin and Jonathan Ansfield in China

© 2007