COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

'Almost Certainly Al Qaeda'

A Pakistan analyst discusses who killed Benazir Bhutto and what her death will mean for Pakistan.

Newsweek Web Exclusive
Dec 27, 2007 | Updated: 2:43  p.m. ET Dec 27, 2007

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  • Posted By: kaneandabel @ 01/06/2008 8:29:27 AM

    Al Qaeda does not have its best interest in the killing Benazir under the current geo-political situation in Pakistan. On the contrary! The rise of Benezir and the expected tussel of power balance between her and Musshraf would mean a political scenario of weakness of central govt. in Pakistan and that is the best possible scenario for Al Qaeda to florish and strengthen its foot-hold in Pakistan. And Baitullah Mahsood is a genuine pashtun maverick - and like he said - he would not attack and kill a woman ( that would be not manly enough for a Pashtun's sense of chivalry). And if he did he would claim it so that he does not become lower ( in the eyes of his follower ) in the Pashtun sense of honour ( he rides a black horse to his battles; for god's sake!).,

    Musharraf would not directly order Benazirs killing, because smart that he is, he knows that the only way for his political survival was the American sponsored deal with Benezir to hold on to the power albait with reduced authority. But removing Benazir - and the inevitable rumour of claim that he was responsible - has removed the only sure leg, of the three pillars( the other two being thew Army and ISI) of his survival beyond the election. Having removed the judiciary (by force) and the current legislative coalition by their being seen as complicit for the destruction of democracy, Musharraf would not want to eliminite his own absolutely sure pillar ( that Benazir would have been post election) of the three. Why the Army and ISI not the sure pillars that all say are for Pakistan.

    So having taken out the possibilities of a sure motives for Al qaeda, Baitullah Mahsud - taliban, Musharraf and the Army; the ISI is the only plausable organisation that gave the orders to pull the trigger.

    • Posted By: shaista @ 01/23/2008 11:53:38 PM

      You have rightly analyzed the situation and one thing you should to focus is that Musharaf is the Pakistani Mechile G.C and he make the country worst
      He make the army anti public
      destroy judiciary
      make parliment a rubber stamp
      make the administrative personalize
      and make the agencies role to protect him
      he make all the sources personalize not nationalized
      dam on suuch institutions who are responsible

  • Posted By: carladschuler @ 01/06/2008 3:00:33 PM

    Why did the Parade that came out in todays Sunday paper 1/6/2008 make it sound like Benazir Bhutto survived?

  • Posted By: kaneandabel @ 01/06/2008 8:29:16 AM

    It in my openion is definitely an ISI operation. Or a rough element ( almost the entire ISI can be defined as rough element anyway!) within it. I would guess a rougue group in ISI. Why? Becasue Bhutto would have been the Prime-minister as an ally of Musshraf. Now that in itself would not have precipitated the plan for an assasination of Bhutto unless she has declared the "absolute no go area" in Pakistani power politics!!

    Bhutto declaring just a week before that she would allow AQ Khan to be interrogated by American Agencies. Now anyone who knows Pakistani Intelligence aparatus and the Army know, AQ Khan could not have carried out the operations of his Nuclear bomb Walmart without the direct involvment of the top echelons of ISI. That means that aside from the top general C-In-C of ISI(who was recently reappointed by Musharraf.) the other top ranking ISI is definitely complicit in the Nuclear bomb bazaar that was setup by AQ Khan.

    So I would be of the openion that it would not be Musharraf directly but the top ISI command would be involved in the Benazir asasination. They knew that With Benezir inevitable rise to the Prime ministership and a much weakened Musharraf, the role of the high ranking players in ISI would be out. That, in Pakistan, means they would be "taken out". That sheer fear of being outed would be the absolute motive for the hurried plan to assasinate Benazir just a week after her declaration that AQ Khan would be open to CIA.

  • Posted By: salerfive @ 01/03/2008 8:30:33 PM

    Pleaaazzee. Why would AlQaeda invite international scrutiny in a country under Musharaf that has provided a virtual sanctuary to them. Suicide bombers are not "the mark of AlQaeda", as most suicide bombings ARE NOT performed by AlQaeda and there is clear video evidence that there was one or two shooters, corroborated by witnesses. Neither Musharaf nor AlQaeda benefit from Bhutto's assasination, for the simple reason that they had a good athing going. All Musharaf had to do was manipulate the next election, as easy for the corrupt Pakistani major political parties as it has been for the US major political parties! This article gets an opinion from a Council of Foreign Relations-figure with no access to current intelligence. It also makes no mention of the ISI, the Pakistani inteliigence service, which is believed by many to be a surrogate or at least have a close relationship with the CIA. This article is mere disinformation!

  • Posted By: UnderdogFL @ 01/03/2008 8:39:09 AM

    There are two possible beneficiaries to Bhutto's death. The first is Mushariff, the 2nd is Al Qaeda. Considering the fact that the murder of Bhutto was done by a suicide bomber, it has the mark of Al Qaeda. After all, not too many Mushariff supporters are into blowing themselves up.

    If Pakistan were to slip into Islamofacism, Al Qaeda would have nuclear weapons. I seriously doubt Al Qaeda would not use them. I'm sure India is paying close attention as well as the West. Especially New Yorkers.

  • Posted By: peacemonger @ 01/03/2008 8:12:52 AM

    Neither AlQuida nor Taliban are Holy Angels. Their cowardly acts in the past has given an oppurtunity for others to do this and blame it on Al Quida. Obviously, who is the beneficiary in this assasination? The answer is written all over the wall. Only the Policy makers of US and the west refuse to read it.

  • Posted By: peacemonger @ 01/03/2008 8:03:08 AM

    The analysis is similar to such analyses prior to US taking on IRAQ. Who is the immediate beneficiary in this dastardly act? Obviously President Musharaff. The US which called the then Iraqi ruler Saddam a dictatotor, is calling the Pakistani dictator as "President" and expects him to install Democracy in Pakistan. In what way? The Kenyan way or Iraqi way?

  • Posted By: eddiewhere @ 01/01/2008 11:59:03 PM

    HASAN you can not deny the facts.The KORAN and the chapter of JIHAD is being used as a tool to indoctrinate the Muslim masses around the world to commit atrocities in the name of GOD for political gain. SUICIDE Bombing is part of this indoctrination. The anger HASAN has demonstrated is a perfect example of the ANGER Muslims feel around the World. It is this anger that makes them very susceptible to indoctrination, by the JIHAD chapter. Muslims are always getting enraged and threatning JIHAD.IT brings them together. Even moderates are anti west because they put Koran first and America second or whatever country they live in. You will never hear a Muslim say they love America and this is why we have home grown terror cells all around the world. Could you imagine if JEHOVAH WITNESSes STARTED BLOWING THEMSELVES Up every time they knocked on someone's door. Although many Americans think JEHOVAH"S are kind of weird, we would still open our doors, because they mean no harm. This is why we should never move unilaterally unless it is absolutely necessary. The Muslim people do not want to blame their own governments, they want to blame America.The offspring of MUSLIM moderates have already carried out JIHAD attacks in England and have tried in Canada and AMerica. They are enraged about the Iraq war. It is like they "SMELLED BURNT BARBECUE". Any little thing can trigger JIHAD. JIHAD BRINGS the MUSLIM COMMUNITY TOGETHER. HASAN, no matter what actions America takes you will still be angry. You have been indoctrinated to believe that the West is evil and that your MUSLIM and ARAB governments are the good guys. I never hear them criticize their governments, they only criticize America. It is a tool of indoctrination that the MUSLIM and ARAB leaderships have been using for centuries. The only thing that can trump the Koran is freedom and money. This is why Muslims who criticize the WEST live here. Because they do not want to live under Muslim regimes. They want to be free to make money and eat Turkey. If you do not want America medaling in your business then elect governments in your Muslim and Arab countries who do not abuse you and indoctrinate you with ANTI WEST sentiments.

  • Posted By: eddiewhere @ 12/31/2007 4:13:17 AM

    There has not been one instant in history where the KORAN HAS brought peace. It is their culture. Christianity has evolve, just like barbians eventually became civilized, so did Christianity. Even moderate Muslims are swayed by the JIHAD CHApter. The offspring of these moderateds have already carried out attacks in England and have tried in Canada and AMerica. What is amazing is how they are influenced by the Iraq war. They turn on the T.V and become enraged. There only hope to strike back is JIHAD. Remember Muslims have been indoctrinating there own for centuries. They have finally perfected it. This chapter allows leaders to indoctrinate their people all around the world. The " Ayattolah" has used this doctrine on Salman Rushdie who is an INDIAN. The only way to deal with a nuclear threat, is in private. We should gurantee all countries FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. However if the people choose an extremist government then they must know the consequences. IT IS THESE SAME CONSEQUENCES THAT have DETERed RUSSIA FROM USING THEIR NUCLEAR ARSERNAL AS MUSCLE. WE WILL Annihlate YOU if you threaten with nuclear weapons. That is why the Middle East Government threaten Israel because they know better. The same goes for pakistan, any government that takes power after Free and Fair Elections, will be delivered the same message, In addition, they will assist us in the HUNT FOR BIN LADEN. Keeping Bin LADEN alive seems to be making a lot of people rich. We need to get Bin Laden and get the hell out of pacistan, let nations determine their own future. Nations cannot do that without a strong constitution that is followed like the KORAN.

    • Posted By: hasan.ibrahim @ 01/01/2008 12:59:12 AM

      you're more dumb than i thought you would be..I've got much better stuff to do rather than to waste more time than i already have in explain something to that pile of *** you call your brain :)

  • Posted By: megalodon @ 12/31/2007 9:23:52 AM

    baisically, its countries on american wefare program. instead of paying to have them look, perhaps paying in return as a reward. paying a country Xamount of "$$" for doing a certain amount of work, "AFTER" the work "HAS" been done....would be more a rout to take. puts more pressure.....do i show greed or will for democracy, and money in return. this is all a big game to certain people in the mid-east. and the united states has "SUCKER" printed on its forhead, jus like in the old cartoons.
    Now, it looks like our backs against the wall again....back the loser or ? Pull, every US person out of there.....let Mursharraf keep the bed he's made. we gave him money to do a job undone. after its all over....proceed with a fresh plan, with diffrent goals and needs. if that country wants to be an extremist country....good...let them. why should we do all the dirty work? the UN can handle who's gonna do what over there as far as things go, altho, we are a part of it, it puts us out of the limelight, and more into democracy, for its not just the US saying HEY!, its the world saying...ok...now look here, your in the boat, or your swimming, no hanging the feet in the water while were trying to paddle, or walk in and clean up somemore.

  • Posted By: eddiewhere @ 12/28/2007 2:31:56 PM

    hasan.ibrahim, 'They only stand up for religion just like your priests. But unlike them, the muslim extremists are not afraid of speaking up for what believe in'. hasan.ibrahim hasan.ibrahim

    What they believe in is the chapter of Jihad. You obviously are from a different section of the country because most individuals in Pakistan cannot afford to study in Austrailia, they study in Madrassa's. I also noticed a tone of support for the extremist in your comments. You have been subliminally indoctrinated. Look how upset you are because you know your country is a breeding ground for JIHAD. THIS IS A FACT. AHOY MATE. IT IS THAT ANGER THAT DRIVES MUSLIMS TO EXTREMISIM.

    • Posted By: hasan.ibrahim @ 12/30/2007 9:55:25 AM

      yes and the anger is triggered by stupid comments like this from people who don't know better. I will not deny the fact that most people cannot afford to study abroad like the fortunate few but that doesn't mean that those who can't are being brainwashed into believing that jihad is the only way to go. Secondly, as I said in my other post, jihad is not at all what the media has led you ignorant people to believe. They have just given this extremism a name. I repeat myself again, the extremism that you people dub as terrorism is only extremism to get to closer to God with out violence. I am not a very religious person but I do know this. I witnessed the red mosque incident with my own eyes. The people holding up the mosque only barricaded the area as a peaceful protest to bring Islamic reform to the country. And what does Musharraf do? He goes in with his full military strength. You tell me what you think is the right way to deal with such problems. In my opinion it would have been much better to just listen to what they had to say, what???s the harm in that? Extremism is not what these ???mullas??? or religious fanatics are doing. They do not bomb place and kill people when the government doesn???t listen to them. It is Musharraf behind all this just to stay in power and to prove a certain point to the world. This is my opinion. Surely everyone has a different opinion about everything. And I could be wrong, but I know for certain that it is not these religious fanatics as I have researched into this myself personally by studying at a madrassa for a year before coming to Australia, in the northern areas where they say the problem has originated (it got bombed 3 months after I left it). I do not have time to tell you the details of what they teach as my exams are in a month???s time. But I am willing to provide you with any information (in my knowledge) which you require. I am only trying to show you what the real picture is. Please do not take my comments personally as this is how I reply to people who speak as if they know everything.

      Musharraf is the extremist.

  • Posted By: thirdworld @ 12/30/2007 1:49:37 AM

    As one who grew up in a third world country and spent some time studying government systems and practices in these countries, I feel and share the pain of Mrs. Bhutto's family and supporters. However, I believe as inadequate as it was, no matter what president Musharraf and the government did in terms of providing security for her would have prevented this tragedy. At best, members of any security detail provided by the government would almost certainly have been killed along with her eventually. Pakistanis need to get with it???It's not your government...Although it should take some of the responsibility for her death but those crazy lunatics running around in your country using Islam to justify their insanity and driving the country to hell in a hand basket. All decent people of whatever race, tribe, religious, or other persuasion should join together to chase those lunatics out of town just like they did in Iraqi. Remember Afghanistan under the Taliban and look at Iran as it continues to digress in time. Western democracy is certainly not prefect and has its many flaws. But, I will certainly take George Bush any day over those holier than thou hypocrites and religious fanatics that wish to rule our lives and impose their own version of hell on earth on the rest of us. By the way, my son???s a Muslim and I am a Roman Catholic???

  • Posted By: thirdworld @ 12/30/2007 1:37:29 AM

    As one who grew up in a third world country and spent some time studying government systems and practices in these countries, I feel and share the pain of Mrs. Bhutto's family and supporters. However, I believe as inadequate as it was, no matter what president Musharraf and the government did in terms of providing security for her would have prevented this tragedy. At best, members of any security detail provided by the government would almost certainly have been killed along with her eventually. Pakistani???s need to get with it???It's not your government...Although it should take some of the responsibility for her death but those crazy lunatics running around in your country using Islam to justify their insanity and driving the country to hell in a hand basket. All decent people of whatever race, tribe, religious, or other persuasion should join together to chase those lunatics out of town just like they did in Iraqi. Remember Afghanistan under the Taliban and look at Iran as it continues to digress in time. Western democracy is certainly not prefect and has its many flaws ??? George Bush for example. But, I will certainly take him any day over those holier than thou hypocrites and religious fanatics that wish to rule our lives and impose their own version of hell on earth on the rest of us.

  • Posted By: AL RAFIQ @ 12/29/2007 10:23:07 PM

    it would be up to the people of Pakistan to come up to their senses and that is to choose good from evil.What represented peace would only be a democratically elected secular government who would look after the welfare of the people and evil represents chaos, disregard for human rights and non-sense killings and full disregard of God's love for human beings, those who forments chaos,endless fightings, hate and death.It is so simple even for a kid to decide which is the best way to trek in life.Pakistanis wake up!

  • Posted By: anti-Terrorist @ 12/29/2007 7:44:56 PM

    The CFR is not trustworthy. They brought us lies greasing skids to invade Iraq and lots of rabid Corporatism.

    Stop listening to them and the PNAC crowd.

    Just who is al qaeda anyway? Does it matter to them that Benazir Bhutto told Wolf Blitzer she thought Musharraf was out to get her?

    no, because they want chaos and lies to rule to day so it's easier for them to practice Disaster Capitalism.

  • Posted By: anti-Terrorist @ 12/29/2007 7:44:39 PM

    The CFR is not trustworthy. They brought us lies greasing skids to invade Iraq and lots of rabid Corporatism.

    Stop listening to them and the PNAC crowd.

    Just who is al qaeda anyway? Does it matter to them that Benazir Bhutto told Wolf Blitzer she thought Musharraf was out to get her?

    no, because they want chaos and lies to rule to day so it's easier for them to practice Disaster Capitalism.

  • Posted By: WorldWithoutMuslims @ 12/29/2007 5:22:25 PM

    All muslims living in the west must be kicked out and they should go back to Islamic republic. Otherwise, west and USA will become failed state like Pakistan full of muslim criminals.

  • Posted By: mildbrew @ 12/29/2007 4:41:39 PM

    Anyone who is blaming Pakistan's military for Bhuttos murder is a traitor of Pakistan and an Indian agent. Pakistans military would never kill its own leaders, this is a ridiculous and disgraceful thing to say for any Pakistani. Dont get over emotional and make your country look stupid, the enemies of Pakistan killed her.

  • Posted By: mildbrew @ 12/29/2007 4:41:03 PM

    Anyone who is blaming Pakistan's military for Bhuttos murder is a traitor of Pakistan and an Indian agent. Pakistans military would never kill its own leaders, this is a ridiculous and disgraceful thing to say for any Pakistani. Dont get over emotional and make your country look stupid, the enemies of Pakistan killed her.

  • Posted By: alexk @ 12/29/2007 4:29:18 PM

    Mushrraf weaken bhutto's security so suicide bomber can kill her. BUSH and musharraf plotted this 2 month ago she escaped . Second time she perished. BUSH got to be satan in human form. Musharaaf is a dog!.
    Oh well , we have here stupid analyst blaming alqaeda. Are you guys living in another planet. Can't you read pak internal politics. Corrupt bhutto vs corrupt army power struggle? Who swindle more money from GOVT?.

    What makes me mad is try to humiliate the victim that she got killed herself by hitting sunroof of the car. That is hilarious and pathetic attempt to hide that PAK ISI intend to terminate her at what ever the cost!. Idea is kill her first 100% and trigger bomb so no one can find out she got killed first with gun and kill everyone around her so one can be witness. It is easy to see if you have commonsense logic. You are an idiot!/

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