Until ISI and Pak military stays away from the Pak nukes (do they have any? or just got few ready made from China?), there will always be future Abdul Qadeer's who will be blamed for smuggling nukes out to terrorists. What about state? Were they sleeping? If Abdul Qadeer can give nukes to Libya and Iran, what guarantee is there that someone will not give it to militants. Whenever some conclusion is made, it's based on the history and facts- No other country has such a bad reputation as Pakistan for not safeguardng nukes from being sold to other countriers (or militanta.)
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Third, potential disaffection in the army increases the odds that mini-Khans might emerge. According to Musharraf, after 9/11 the United States gave Pakistan a choice between signing up as an American ally in the war on terror or "being bombed back into the stone age." He chose alliance. Since joining the U.S. war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, Pakistan has received about a billion dollars a year of mostly military assistance. With mounting setbacks, including the reconstitution of Al Qaeda headquarters and training camps in the country's borders with Afghanistan, frustration over fighting "America's war" is mounting among Pakistan's national security establishment. And as the United States and others press the cause of democracy in ways that diminish the traditional role of the army, Pakistani officers' ambivalence about the United States may increase. An International Republican Institute poll earlier this month found that one out of two Pakistanis believe the army should have no role in civilian government. Bhutto's assassination may further erode the prestige and credibility of the army and security services.
Finally, the larger society has a decidedly negative view of the United States. In a 2007 Pew poll, two out of three Pakistanis named the United States as the greatest threat to their country.
From this cauldron of combustibles there is no ready exit. It would be a grave mistake, however, to take comfort from the serene assurances of officials in governments, here and there, about everything being under reasonable control.
Graham Allison is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He served as assistant secretary of defense in the first Clinton administration and is the author of "Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe."
© 2007
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