BETWEEN THE LINES

Jonathan Alter

Who Can Win in November?

A guide to 'electability,' as the voting draws nigh.

Dec 31, 2007 | Updated: 12:01 p.m. ET Dec 31, 2007

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Even at this late date, more than half of all voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say they have not made up their minds for sure. Many are still deciding which candidate they think would make the best president. But thousands of others are wrestling with a more cold-blooded question: who can win in November?

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Most early head-to-head polls show John McCain and Barack Obama as the strongest candidates in a general election, a reflection of their slight edge over their primary opponents among independents, who make up at least a third of the electorate and often determine the outcome.

But "electability voters" need more than polls. With the stipulation that 10 months is an eon in politics, let's make some educated guesses about the pros and cons of how each of the plausible candidates would do in the Big Show.

Warning: these assessments could be thrown off by unexpected developments, the entrance of a third-party candidate or the particular dynamics of various matchups of Republican and Democratic nominees. Plus, I could just be flat wrong.

The candidates in both parties are listed from least to most electable:

REPUBLICANS

Fred Thompson

Pro
If he somehow got the nomination his down-home style would wear well nationally.

Con
He's a lackadaisical campaigner who generates little excitement, even among Republicans.

Bottom Line
Canceled for the fall season. He's Bob Dole without the sense of humor or deep experience.

Member Comments

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Posted By: ducdebrabant @ 06/13/2008 8:00:01 AM

Upstate New York is Republican, but as a matter of fact she did very well there both times. An international investigation of the Bhutto assassination would have been an excellent idea, since the dictatorship there was perfectly capable of having a hand in her killing, and the JFK assassination took place in the United States, which you appear to think no different than Pakistan. We are not a dictatorship, we are not a rogue nuclear state, we do not have Taliban operating freely within our borders, and JFK was a sitting President, not a rival to a sitting dictator. Just so lyou know.
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Posted By: s. valenti @ 04/14/2008 8:32:56 PM

I meant to add that I too went through a course of chemotherapy a while ago. The difference, though, I tried to avoid complicated issues that required full cognitive abilities. Doesn't look like you followed suit. I do wish you good health and a return to full cognitive function. In the meantime, you'd do better than to weigh in on the nuances of the 2008 race.
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Posted By: s. valenti @ 04/14/2008 8:25:07 PM

Now I get your huge bias toward Obama. Too bad your analysis about McCain proved so wrong. You're about to see that the huge numbers you forecasted for Obama (as in landslide) are about to occur. The only problem - those numbers are heading south.

p.s., I'm a current Newsweek subscriber. My subscription ends in August. I'll be saying adios to Newsweek thanks to your non stop bias against Clinton and your attempt to sideline "babyboomers". Your bias was too over the top. And, reviewing these predictions, you're not so hot on analysis either.