Who Can Win in November?

A guide to 'electability,' as the voting draws nigh.

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  • Posted By: ducdebrabant @ 12/31/2007 6:33:07 PM

    Hillary makes Republicans hate-crazy NOW, true, but Alter ought not to talk as if that's immutable. They said the same thing (with some truth) about upstate Republican in New York. National elections may not be as retail as New York elections, but Hillary won those Republicans over, and did better with them in her second election than in her first. Real Hillary-hating Republicans in New York are rarer and rarer. Same thing happened with her colleagues in the Senate. Truth is an absolute defense, and it must eventually out. The fact is, though the lady isn't perfect, she doesn't have horns. And the anti-Hillary screed has always been so extreme -- she's a lesbian, she murdered Vince Foster, the Clntons didn't lose money in the Whitewater deal -- that it has to start decaying sometime. That Republicans stayed in an ant-Hilllary frenzy for 8 years in the White House had to do with the fact that the people attacking her (people like Tom Delay or Rick Santorum) had more credibility back then,. If that has persisted nationally since that time, it's also true that she hasn't been running a national campaign to dispel it. She's been serving as a Senator. The Hate Hillary factor might have settled down considerably come election day.

    • Posted By: lynnmike @ 12/31/2007 8:34:08 PM

      Hillary won New York state for senator, she took the urban area to get re-elected, but did not garner votes upstate against an unknown. She recently called for an " international investigation" to resolve the Bhutto investigation, she wants all the oil profits to reseach alterrnative energy strategies. Should we invite foreigners to resolve our affairs? Were we remiss in not allowing Germany. France or Russia to resolve the JFK assassination? Or, should we allow the next president to run the country? Comments??

      • Posted By: ducdebrabant @ 06/13/2008 8:00:01 AM

        Upstate New York is Republican, but as a matter of fact she did very well there both times. An international investigation of the Bhutto assassination would have been an excellent idea, since the dictatorship there was perfectly capable of having a hand in her killing, and the JFK assassination took place in the United States, which you appear to think no different than Pakistan. We are not a dictatorship, we are not a rogue nuclear state, we do not have Taliban operating freely within our borders, and JFK was a sitting President, not a rival to a sitting dictator. Just so lyou know.

  • Posted By: s. valenti @ 04/14/2008 8:32:56 PM

    I meant to add that I too went through a course of chemotherapy a while ago. The difference, though, I tried to avoid complicated issues that required full cognitive abilities. Doesn't look like you followed suit. I do wish you good health and a return to full cognitive function. In the meantime, you'd do better than to weigh in on the nuances of the 2008 race.

  • Posted By: s. valenti @ 04/14/2008 8:25:07 PM

    Now I get your huge bias toward Obama. Too bad your analysis about McCain proved so wrong. You're about to see that the huge numbers you forecasted for Obama (as in landslide) are about to occur. The only problem - those numbers are heading south.

    p.s., I'm a current Newsweek subscriber. My subscription ends in August. I'll be saying adios to Newsweek thanks to your non stop bias against Clinton and your attempt to sideline "babyboomers". Your bias was too over the top. And, reviewing these predictions, you're not so hot on analysis either.

  • Posted By: Not stupid in Alabama @ 04/14/2008 2:37:14 PM

    This article is so out of date. I wonder why the editors are recommending it?

    Obama is no longer electable. He just sent out a letter to hunters in PA all about how pro-second amendment he is, but he has been given an F rating by the NRA. Check out his gun control position at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Barack_Obama

    Maybe Clinton isn't a big hunter, but at least she knows hunters, and knows what hunting is about. Someone would probably have to explain what a tagged duck was to Obama.

    And no doubt Clinton knows how to gut a fish. The year Hillary Rodham graduated from college, instead of all expense paid travel abroad, she went to work. She worked her way across Alaska, washing dishes in Mount McKinley National Park and sliming salmon in a fish processing cannery in Valdez (which fired her when she complained about unhealthy conditions).

  • Posted By: peteracevedo @ 04/13/2008 12:32:35 PM

    AWESOME political analysis!!!!!!!!!!!

    Check out the article ???Back Room Deals??? http://savagepolitics.com/?p=279 and ???We are the puppets???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://savagepolitics.com/?p=271

    check out http://www.savagepolitics.com
    Their articles are like nothing I have read in any of the current media outlets. It is brilliant writing plus it offers a great community in which to discuss. The editor actually takes time to answer and the political humor section is awesome!!!

  • Posted By: mnash @ 04/13/2008 7:06:36 AM

    Hillary says she "knows guns" so why back in 1999 posted in the New York times is she against guns?????? Guess she is telling little white 'FIBS" AGAIN?????

  • Posted By: lsr57 @ 01/05/2008 6:19:21 PM

    Judicial Watch Announces List of Washington???s ???Ten Most Wanted Corrupt Politicians??? for 2007
    4 of the so called "top tier" are on this list : Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Senator Barack Obama ,Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Governor Mike Huckabee..... http://www.judicialwatch.org

  • Posted By: eddiewhere @ 01/04/2008 5:13:17 AM

    THis was comment three days ago.
    eddiewhere @ 01/01/2008 3:37:52 AM
    Comment: NO ONE LIKES BEING CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN. EXPERIENCE.AND JUDGEMENT. WHAT CAN HILLARY DO THAT OBAMA CANNOT. THIS IS THE QUESTION I HAVE BEEN ASKING MYSELF. I THINK THE WORLD WILL WELCOME OBAMA AND AT LEAST GAVE HIM A FAIR CHANCE. REPUBLICANS WILL SWALLOW THEIR PRIDE AND WORK WITH OBAMA. THEY WILL NEVER DO THAT WITH HILLARY. HILLARY AND EDWARDS ARE GOOD PEOPLE, HOWEVER THEIR VOTING RECORD AND THEIR LACK OF COURAGE HAS LEAD ME TO QUESTION WHETHER THEY HAVE THE RIGHT INSTINCTS AND JUDGEMENT TO BE IN OFFICE. I REALLY THINK THEY WOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE UNDER AN OBAMA PRESIDENCY. OBAMA WILL NOT TRY AND CONTROL EVERYTHING.
    sANDY, EDWARDS IS DESpERATE. thIS MAN FOLLOWED JOHN KERRY. HE WILL DO AND SAY ANYTHING. EVEN IF HE MEANS IT NOW IT IS TOO LATE. OBAMA AND CLINTON ARE TOO SMART, THEY KNOW THAT WHAT YOU SAY TODAY COULD FINISH YOU TOMORROW. ONLY A CANDIDATE WITH NOTHING TO LOSE WILL SAY WHAT EDWARDS IS SAYING. WHAT HAS HE DONE. BE HONEST. HILLARY IS pROUD THAT SHE WENT AGIANST HER pRINCIpLES TO GIVE BUSH A BLANK CHECK. WHY. IT WAS GOOD FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. HILLARY IS NOT STUpID IF THE WAR HAD NEGATIVE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES IN BUFFALO, SHE WOULD HAVE VOTED AGAINST IT. TRANSpARENCY IS SOMETHING NIETHER pARTY WANTS. NO ONE LIKE GETTING CAUGHT WITH THEIR pANTS DOWN AND THEN LECTURED ABOUT JUDGEMENT CALL..
    DO YOU THINK BILL WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA OR HUCKABEE IN THE NEXT ELECTION

  • Posted By: eddiewhere @ 01/04/2008 5:08:39 AM

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/82522/output/comments

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/82295/output/comments

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/74472
    http://www.newsweek.com/id/71000
    This article recieved the most comments all year How to Beat Hillary Clinton http://www.newsweek.com/id/71000
    http://www.newsweek.com/id/74472, Holy War, was also an article I recieved many comment on. My comments are meant to provide awareness to the voter.

  • Posted By: eddiewhere @ 01/04/2008 12:59:07 AM

    This is the comment I posted a couple of day agos. I am an American and I know my people. ALL My analysis were correct and backed by facts. I proved to be the most accurate going back months. Hopefully, people will learn that if you research and back your arguments with facts you will find the truth. I like Hillary and Edwards but they need to understand that they cannot overcome their records, they sold out to the same forces that have been "Punishing us for the last decade . Edwards cannot implement what he says and Hillary is haunted by the bill thing that is why she has to be careful not to go to negative. I will offer my advise on what the losers should do tomorrow. NO ONE LIKEs BEING CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN. OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT. DcooPer and deeP thinker you should study THE LIKEABILITy FACTOR and understand that I know more than all these Political Pundits and . Phd's. Did you see kieth OBEIRMAN and all those funny PeoPle on MSNBC. THey are dumb. They really looke devastated. Everything they believed in and all their Pundits were wrong. They were so one sided, Hillary. THe media has to recognize that more and more PeoPle do not believe them. They rePresent corPorations who have been indoctrinating us to sPene like wild animals and go into debt. DEbt financing. YOu know with CHINA. Everyone should read my comments and decide for temselves. Mitt Romney is a true clown just like Guilliani. His lies make me weeP like I said all along. His solution to health care is too offer Packagaes which PeoPle cannot afford. This man has just fliP floP too much and has followed the BUSH DOCTRINE. THAT EX Pired two years ago. I look forward to seeing his comPlete defeat in a couPle of weeks. Romney does not rePresent change HENRY TAFT BENSON. MY PEOPLE HAVE SEEN THROUGH THE MIRAGE. OBAMAMcCain for President. I backed every Post with facts. I am a Proud graduate of UMD in Maryland. I graduated four years ago and I am Part of a movement behind OBAMA that wants the best for ALL AMERICANS, EVEN GINGRICH and some of my friends who ridiculed my Posts. I have also had a loyal following of comment makers including suPPorters of all Parties. GOd Bless America.they have awaken a sleePing GIANT.
    eddiewhere @ 01/02/2008 4:21:43 AM
    Comment: Deep Thinker, Obama has been a success his whole life, He is far beyond his years and has always excelled above his peers. You need to research his eight years as an Illinois state senator. Obama is very intelligent and has proven it time and time again. He never got a free handout. He worked hard and accomplished more than anyone else his age in his field. That is a fact. What has Obama done that makes you think that he is not ready to be president, deep thinker. NO ONE LIKES BEING CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN. OBAMA/McCain ticket for President. We can move forward or we can go backwards. It is your choice.

  • Posted By: aronimiller @ 01/03/2008 6:44:37 PM

    I have to chime in. I'm an Obama supporter from Illinois, living in L.A. That aside, it's deeply troubling to me that Ron Paul is excluded from articles like these, and polls, and debates. It's terribly embarrasing that the media would play into this kind of exclusion. I understand he has his work cut out for him getting elected by people he plans to put out of work (the federal reserve, the f.b.i., the C.I.A, etc.), but not allowing him to compete, or attempting to marginalize him without a fair shot is symptematic of a very frightening shift in our great country. I may not vote for him, but I want him to be heard. Shame on you.

  • Posted By: orangechicken @ 01/03/2008 6:22:08 PM

    Hmm... You're missing Ron Paul

    Pro
    The only anti-war candidate in the GOP. Brings knowledge of *real*, unifying issues - like sound money and noninterventionist foreign policy - to the table when all others are blabbing about man-on-man marriages and immigrants "stealing" jobs, arguments that are only divisive. As a ten-term congressman, has showed unwaivering consistency and demonstrated pricelessness in face of lobbyist money.

    Con
    Panned by the mainstream media, who fear for their own tails, he lacks visibility that would draw more people to his positions (which aren't determined by poll numbers). At 72, he would be an old-timer - though that doesn't seem to be detrimental to young voters currently supporting him as he's in-touch with Teh Internets and such.

    Bottom Line
    He's likely the only GOP candidate that is possibly electable in a year when nearly 3/4 of the country want out of Iraq. He's simultaneously further left on the war than most of the D candidates and further right on traditionally-conservative issues than all other R candidates.

  • Posted By: StraightForeword1 @ 01/03/2008 12:01:36 AM

    Catch phrase... u kiddin me? Am I going to elect someone because someone wrote a good catch phrase for them? The issues are the important things. Generally democrats do what feels good, and republicans do what works. End of story

    • Posted By: notme2012 @ 01/03/2008 3:05:05 PM

      Repubilans do what works? President Bush has done what he wanted to do for him and his cronies, not what was good for our country!

  • Posted By: TheSaint @ 01/03/2008 12:00:10 PM

    This is garbage. Clinton cannot and will not win a general election and anyone who thinks so is too far removed from the average American to be writing about politics. Spend a week outside New York, California or Florida and you will see that Clinton is a big loser come November. Dems had better wake up and nominate John Edwards, or we will lose another one.

  • Posted By: totallynext @ 01/03/2008 10:10:49 AM

    First off - I miss your weekly interviews on Al Frankin show.
    But I disagree with your analysis of Edwards, time and time again - When he is put out there in head to head match ups with the Rep in a general election scenario - He out performs the other dems 9/10ths of the time in all kinds of different states, like Virginia.

  • Posted By: totallynext @ 01/03/2008 10:04:46 AM

    Miss you on Al Frankin show... That being said
    Your analyst has alot of good - however, I think you are wrong on Edwards. Poll after Poll - nation wide - he comes out a "most electable" when the top tier candidates are put against each other (DEM v REP). So the electability has already been polled - not on Dems only or Rep only - but head to head match ups.

  • Posted By: deep thinker @ 01/02/2008 10:20:36 PM

    i just saw Hillary's two-minute closing argument to Iowans. It was noteworthy. One reason. She came up with what I believe is a very effective, catchy slogan for her campaign. I WILL WORK MY HEART OUT FOR YOU. she says. That's a very catchy campaign-summation phrase, indeed. Some have argued that one problem Hillary has is that she does not have a catchy slogan that identifies her run. Obama has I'LL BRING CHANGE. Edwards says, i'LL FIGHT FOR THE LITTLE PEOPLE. Now, at last, Hillary has her own cathchy identifying slogan. "I'LL WORK MY HEAR OUT FOR YOU." It's a good one , I think..

    • Posted By: dewcooper @ 01/03/2008 9:22:22 AM

      I really feel sorry for a country that bases its election on 'catchy phrases'. Would you vote for me if I came out and said 'I'll be the best president EVER"? Matt Damon pretty much summed up the political intelligence of much of America when he said 'I like Obama. I'll vote for him. I need to read more about him.' Translated: Vote first, ask questions later. Luckily, most of hollywood and those who blindly follow them can't be bothered to vote.

  • Posted By: pkpdjh @ 01/03/2008 1:55:09 AM

    Personally, I'd love to see Bloomberg run as an Independent and Ron Paul run for whichever party (Reform, Libertarians, Taxpayer, Constitutionalist) can grab him. Then, Americans might get rid of this WWF two-party, bad-guy-good-guy myth that that currently subscribe to. Bloomberg will grab a lot of people from the center. Paul will maintain his hard-core folks and pick up a lot more if the media gives him time. Whether or not you like his ideas, the reality is they appeal to a reasonable percentage of people who hear them. The upcoming economic mess will make people a little more skeptical of the status quo.

    If had to handicap the primaries, I'd say Obama and Romney win. In that case, I think this would be the popular vote in my fantastical 4-way race:

    Obama 37%
    Bloomberg 25%
    Romney 20%
    Paul 18%

  • Posted By: pkpdjh @ 01/03/2008 1:54:51 AM

    Why are Dodd and Richardson on the list of plausible candidates, but Ron Paul (who has more way more money, more poll numbers, and more volunteers than either of them) is excluded? Oh, that's right, you work for Newsweek.

    As far as electability goes, I really think Edwards has the best shot of the leading three Dems. Hillary just doesn't wear well. There are so many anti-Hillary folks out there and I think they will become more and more vocal. She is as slick and smart as Bill when it comes to double-speak, but she just isn't as charming. Obama seems like a flash-in-the-pan. There's not a lot of substance behind the style. I wanted to like him, but I can't. Edwards has the most substance. While I don't agree with most of his ideas, he has a lot of them and I don't mind listening to him over and over.

    On the Republican side, I think it is a mess. Giuliani's fade will continue as his answers become more and more tired. Huckabee might get the evangelicals out, but he might also get the anti-evangelicals out. He has also come out and said that he doesn't think the government has any role in the mortgage crisis. That will kill him long term as more and more Americans get hammered directly or indirectly by the upcoming economic disaster. They will make him look like a meanie which will ruin his whole feel-good image. McCain would do very well against Obama if the media can continue to confuse the American people into thinking U.S. foreign policy is working. He might be the most bulletproof because his voting record is just so confusing. Romney is interesting. He reminds me of a game show host. And when I think of it, game show hosts are usually really annoying, but eventually you except their weirdness. Think of Bob Barker. Romney might be able to speak most intelligently about the impending financial issues we face and he is good at the "I'll protect you from the evil-doers" song and dance.

  • Posted By: pkpdjh @ 01/03/2008 1:54:29 AM

    Why are Dodd and Richardson on the list of plausible candidates, but Ron Paul (who has more way more money, more poll numbers, and more volunteers than either of them) is excluded? Oh, that's right, you work for Newsweek.

    As far as electability goes, I really think Edwards has the best shot of the leading three Dems. Hillary just doesn't wear well. There are so many anti-Hillary folks out there and I think they will become more and more vocal. She is as slick and smart as Bill when it comes to double-speak, but she just isn't as charming. Obama seems like a flash-in-the-pan. There's not a lot of substance behind the style. I wanted to like him, but I can't. Edwards has the most substance. While I don't agree with most of his ideas, he has a lot of them and I don't mind listening to him over and over.

    On the Republican side, I think it is a mess. Giuliani's fade will continue as his answers become more and more tired. Huckabee might get the evangelicals out, but he might also get the anti-evangelicals out. He has also come out and said that he doesn't think the government has any role in the mortgage crisis. That will kill him long term as more and more Americans get hammered directly or indirectly by the upcoming economic disaster. They will make him look like a meanie which will ruin his whole feel-good image. McCain would do very well against Obama if the media can continue to confuse the American people into thinking U.S. foreign policy is working. He might be the most bulletproof because his voting record is just so confusing. Romney is interesting. He reminds me of a game show host. And when I think of it, game show hosts are usually really annoying, but eventually you except their weirdness. Think of Bob Barker. Romney might be able to speak most intelligently about the impending financial issues we face and he is good at the "I'll protect you from the evil-doers" song and dance.

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